Evaluation and development of satellite inferences of convective storm intensity using combined case study analysis and thunderstorm model simulations

Major research accomplishments which were achieved during the first year of the grant are summarized. The research concentrated in the following areas: (1) an examination of observational requirements for predicting convective storm development and intensity as suggested by recent numerical experiments; (2) interpretation of recent 3D numerical experiments with regard to the relationship between overshooting tops and surface wind gusts; (3) the development of software for emulating satellite-inferred cloud properties using 3D cloud model predicted data; and (4) the development of a conceptual/semi-quantitative model of eastward propagating, mesoscale convective complexes forming to the lee of the Rocky Mountains

An explicit three-dimensional nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone

A nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone is performed with explicit representation of cumulus on a meso-beta scale grid and for a brief period on a meso-gamma scale grid. Individual cumulus plumes are represented by a combination of explicit resolution and a 1.5 level closure predicting turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)

EnKF assimilation of simulated spaceborne Doppler observations of vertical velocity: impact on the simulation of a supercell thunderstorm and implications for model-based retrievals

International audienceRecently, a number of investigations have been made that point to the robust effectiveness of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) in convective-scale data assimilation. These studies have focused on the assimilation of ground-based Doppler radar observations (i.e. radial velocity and reflectivity). The present study differs from these investigations in two important ways. First, in anticipation of future satellite technology, the impact of assimilating spaceborne Doppler-retrieved vertical velocity is examined; second, the potential for the EnKF to provide an alternative to instrument-based microphysical retrievals is investigated. It is shown that the RMS errors of the analyzed fields produced by assimilation of vertical velocity alone are in general better than those obtained in previous studies: in most cases assimilation of vertical velocity alone leads to analyses with small errors (e.g. -1 for velocity components) after only 3 or 4 assimilation cycles. The microphysical fields are notable exceptions, exhibiting lower errors when observations of reflectivity are assimilated together with observations of vertical velocity, likely a result of the closer relationship between reflectivity and the microphysical fields themselves. It is also shown that the spatial distribution of the error estimates improves (i.e. approaches the true errors) as more assimilation cycles are carried out, which could be a significant advantage of EnKF model-based retrievals

Comparing microphysical/dynamical outputs by different cloud resolving models: impact on passive microwave precipitation retrieval from satellite

International audienceMesoscale cloud resolving models (CRM's) are often utilized to generate consistent descriptions of the microphysical structure of precipitating clouds, which are then used by physically-based algorithms for retrieving precipitation from satellite-borne microwave radiometers. However, in principle, the simulated upwelling brightness temperatures (TB's) and derived precipitation retrievals generated by means of different CRM's with different microphysical assumptions, may be significantly different even when the models simulate well the storm dynamical and rainfall characteristics. In this paper, we investigate this issue for two well-known models having different treatment of the bulk microphysics, i.e. the UW-NMS and the MM5. To this end, the models are used to simulate the same 24-26 November 2002 flood-producing storm over northern Italy. The model outputs that best reproduce the structure of the storm, as it was observed by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) onboard the EOS-Aqua satellite, have been used in order to compute the upwelling TB's. Then, these TB's have been utilized for retrieving the precipitation fields from the AMSR observations. Finally, these results are compared in order to provide an indication of the CRM-effect on precipitation retrieval

The effect of videokeratoscope faceplate design on radius of curvature maps

A computer model using finite ray tracing methods was developed to simulate a videokeratoscope analysing an average cornea. Different faceplate designs were tested using five points in the faceplate subtending angles between 15 and 75 in 15 intervals at the corneal vertex. Image quality was assessed by adding the geometrical blurs of the 5 image points. Differences (error) between accurate sagittal radius of curvature and sagittal radius of curvature calculated by the van Saarloos algorithm were calculated for selected surfaces at the same corneal points. The calculations were repeated for the tangential radius of curvature. Differences equal or bigger than 0.02 mm were regarded as clinically significant. The surface that provided the sharpest image for an average cornea was a cylinder with the base 120 mm away from the corneal vertex and a diameter of 26 mm. Changing the faceplate design results in clinically significant differences for an average cornea

Nonorographic generation of Arctic polar stratospheric clouds during

[1] During December 1999, polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) were observed in the absence of conditions conducive to generation by topographic gravity waves. The possibility is explored that PSCs can be generated by inertia gravity waves (IGW) radiating from breaking synoptic-scale Rossby waves on the polar front jet. The aerosol features on 7 and 12 December are selected for comparison with theory and with simulations using the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (UWNMS). Consistent with Rossby adjustment theory, a common feature in the UWNMS simulations is radiation of IGW from the tropopause polar front jet, especially from sectors which are evolving rapidly in the Rossby wave breaking process. Packets of gravity wave energy radiate upward and poleward into the cold pool, while individual wave crests propagate poleward and downward, causing mesoscale variations in vertical motion and temperature. On 12 December the eastbound DC-8 lidar observations exhibited a fairly uniform field of six waves in aerosol enhancement in the 14-20 km layer, consistent with vertical displacement by a field of IGW propagating antiparallel to the flow, with characteristic horizontal and vertical wavelengths of $300 and$10 km. UWNMS simulations show emanation of a field of IGW upward and southwestward from a northward incursion of the polar front jet. The orientation and evolution of the aerosol features on 7 December are consistent with a single PSC induced by an IGW packet propagating from a breaking Rossby wave over western Russia toward the northeast into the coldest part of the base of the polar vortex, with characteristic period $9 hours, vertical wavelength$12 km, and horizontal wavelength $1000 km. Linear theory shows that for both of these cases, IGW energy propagates upward at$1 km/hour and horizontally at $100 km/hour, with characteristic trace speed$30 m/s. The spatial orientation of the PSC along IGW phase lines is contrasted with the nearly horizontal filamentary structures in the PSC, which are indicative of flow streamlines. It is suggested that vertical displacement is a crucial factor in determining whether a PSC will form and that most PSCs are relatable to specific synoptic and mesoscale motions

Nonorographic generation of Arctic polar stratospheric clouds during

[1] During December 1999, polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) were observed in the absence of conditions conducive to generation by topographic gravity waves. The possibility is explored that PSCs can be generated by inertia gravity waves (IGW) radiating from breaking synoptic-scale Rossby waves on the polar front jet. The aerosol features on 7 and 12 December are selected for comparison with theory and with simulations using the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (UWNMS). Consistent with Rossby adjustment theory, a common feature in the UWNMS simulations is radiation of IGW from the tropopause polar front jet, especially from sectors which are evolving rapidly in the Rossby wave breaking process. Packets of gravity wave energy radiate upward and poleward into the cold pool, while individual wave crests propagate poleward and downward, causing mesoscale variations in vertical motion and temperature. On 12 December the eastbound DC-8 lidar observations exhibited a fairly uniform field of six waves in aerosol enhancement in the 14-20 km layer, consistent with vertical displacement by a field of IGW propagating antiparallel to the flow, with characteristic horizontal and vertical wavelengths of $300 and$10 km. UWNMS simulations show emanation of a field of IGW upward and southwestward from a northward incursion of the polar front jet. The orientation and evolution of the aerosol features on 7 December are consistent with a single PSC induced by an IGW packet propagating from a breaking Rossby wave over western Russia toward the northeast into the coldest part of the base of the polar vortex, with characteristic period $9 hours, vertical wavelength$12 km, and horizontal wavelength $1000 km. Linear theory shows that for both of these cases, IGW energy propagates upward at$1 km/hour and horizontally at $100 km/hour, with characteristic trace speed$30 m/s. The spatial orientation of the PSC along IGW phase lines is contrasted with the nearly horizontal filamentary structures in the PSC, which are indicative of flow streamlines. It is suggested that vertical displacement is a crucial factor in determining whether a PSC will form and that most PSCs are relatable to specific synoptic and mesoscale motions

Optimal functional outcome measures for assessing treatment for Dupuytren's disease: A systematic review and recommendations for future practice

This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. Copyright © 2013 Ball et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.Background: Dupuytren's disease of the hand is a common condition affecting the palmar fascia, resulting in progressive flexion deformities of the digits and hence limitation of hand function. The optimal treatment remains unclear as outcomes studies have used a variety of measures for assessment. Methods: A literature search was performed for all publications describing surgical treatment, percutaneous needle aponeurotomy or collagenase injection for primary or recurrent Dupuytren’s disease where outcomes had been monitored using functional measures. Results: Ninety-one studies met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-two studies reported outcomes using patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) ranging from validated questionnaires to self-reported measures for return to work and self-rated disability. The Disability of Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score was the most utilised patient-reported function measure (n=11). Patient satisfaction was reported by eighteen studies but no single method was used consistently. Range of movement was the most frequent physical measure and was reported in all 91 studies. However, the methods of measurement and reporting varied, with seventeen different techniques being used. Other physical measures included grip and pinch strength and sensibility, again with variations in measurement protocols. The mean follow-up time ranged from 2 weeks to 17 years. Conclusions: There is little consistency in the reporting of outcomes for interventions in patients with Dupuytren’s disease, making it impossible to compare the efficacy of different treatment modalities. Although there are limitations to the existing generic patient reported outcomes measures, a combination of these together with a disease-specific questionnaire, and physical measures of active and passive individual joint Range of movement (ROM), grip and sensibility using standardised protocols should be used for future outcomes studies. As Dupuytren’s disease tends to recur following treatment as well as extend to involve other areas of the hand, follow-up times should be standardised and designed to capture both short and long term outcomes

What are we measuring? A critique of range of motion methods currently in use for Dupuytren's disease and recommendations for practice

Background: Range of motion is the most frequently reported measure used in practice to evaluate outcomes. A goniometer is the most reliable tool to assess range of motion yet, the lack of consistency in reporting prevents comparison between studies. The aim of this study is to identify how range of motion is currently assessed and reported in Dupuytren’s disease literature. Following analysis recommendations for practice will be made to enable consistency in future studies for comparability. This paper highlights the variation in range of motion reporting in Dupuytren’s disease. Methods: A Participants, Intervention, Comparison, Outcomes and Study design format was used for the search strategy and search terms. Surgery, needle fasciotomy or collagenase injection for primary or recurrent Dupuytren’s disease in adults were included if outcomes were monitored using range of motion to record change. A literature search was performed in May 2013 using subject heading and free-text terms to also capture electronic publications ahead of print. In total 638 publications were identified and following screening 90 articles met the inclusion criteria. Data was extracted and entered onto a spreadsheet for analysis. A thematic analysis was carried out to establish any duplication, resulting in the final range of motion measures identified. Results: Range of motion measurement lacked clarity, with goniometry reportedly used in only 43 of the 90 studies, 16 stated the use of a range of motion protocol. A total of 24 different descriptors were identified describing range of motion in the 90 studies. While some studies reported active range of motion, others reported passive or were unclear. Eight of the 24 categories were identified through thematic analysis as possibly describing the same measure, ‘lack of joint extension’ and accounted for the most frequently used. Conclusions: Published studies lacked clarity in reporting range of motion, preventing data comparison and meta-analysis. Percentage change lacks context and without access to raw data, does not allow direct comparison of baseline characteristics. A clear description of what is being measured within each study was required. It is recommended that range of motion measuring and reporting for Dupuytren’s disease requires consistency to address issues that fall into 3 main categories:- Definition of terms Protocol statement Outcome reportin

The Antioxidant Potential of the Mediterranean Diet in Patients at High Cardiovascular Risk: An In-Depth Review of the PREDIMED

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading global cause of death. Diet is known to be important in the prevention of CVD. The PREDIMED trial tested a relatively low-fat diet versus a high-fat Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) for the primary prevention of CVD. The resulting reduction of the CV composite outcome resulted in a paradigm shift in CV nutrition. Though many dietary factors likely contributed to this effect, this review focuses on the influence of the MedDiet on endogenous antioxidant systems and the effect of dietary polyphenols. Subgroup analysis of the PREDIMED trial revealed increased endogenous antioxidant and decreased pro-oxidant activity in the MedDiet groups. Moreover, higher polyphenol intake was associated with lower incidence of the primary outcome, overall mortality, blood pressure, inflammatory biomarkers, onset of new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and obesity. This suggests that polyphenols likely contributed to the lower incidence of the primary event in the MedDiet groups. In this article, we summarize the potential benefits of polyphenols found in the MedDiet, specifically the PREDIMED cohort. We also discuss the need for further research to confirm and expand the findings of the PREDIMED in a non-Mediterranean population and to determine the exact mechanisms of action of polyphenols