Validation of the PreOperative Score to predict Post-Operative Mortality (POSPOM) in Dutch non-cardiac surgery patients

BACKGROUND: Standardized risk assessment tools can be used to identify patients at higher risk for postoperative complications and death. In this study, we validate the PreOperative Score to predict Post-Operative Mortality (POSPOM) for in-hospital mortality in a large cohort of non-cardiac surgery patients. In addition, the performance of POSPOM to predict postoperative complications was studied. METHODS: Data from the control cohort of the TRACE (routine posTsuRgical Anesthesia visit to improve patient outComE) study was analysed. POSPOM scores for each patient were calculated post-hoc. Observed in-hospital mortality was compared with predicted mortality according to POSPOM. Discrimination was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curves with C-statistics for in-hospital mortality and postoperative complications. To describe the performance of POSPOM sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive values, and positive predictive values were calculated. For in-hospital mortality, calibration was assessed by a calibration plot. RESULTS: In 2490 patients, the observed in-hospital mortality was 0.5%, compared to 1.3% as predicted by POSPOM. 27.1% of patients had at least one postoperative complication of which 22.4% had a major complication. For in-hospital mortality, POSPOM showed strong discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.78-0.93). For the prediction of complications, the discrimination was poor to fair depending on the severity of the complication. The calibration plot showed poor calibration of POSPOM with an overestimation of in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: Despite the strong discriminatory performance, POSPOM showed poor calibration with an overestimation of in-hospital mortality. Performance of POSPOM for the prediction of any postoperative complication was poor but improved according to severity

Routine Postsurgical Anesthesia Visit to Improve 30-day Morbidity and Mortality: A Multicenter, Stepped-wedge Cluster Randomized Interventional Study (The TRACE Study)

Objective: To study the impact of a standardized postoperative anesthesia visit on 30-day mortality in medium to high-risk elective surgical patients. Background: Postoperative complications are the leading cause of perioperative morbidity and mortality. Although modified early warning scores (MEWS) were instituted to monitor vital functions and improve postoperative outcome, we hypothesized that complementary anesthesia expertise is needed to adequately identify early deterioration. Methods: In a prospective, multicenter, stepped-wedge cluster randomized interventional study in 9 academic and nonacademic hospitals in the Netherlands, we studied the impact of adding standardized postoperative anesthesia visits on day 1 and 3 to routine use of MEWS in 5473 patients undergoing elective noncardiac surgery. Primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included: incidence of postoperative complications, length of hospital stay, and intensive care unit admission. Results: Patients were enrolled between October 2016 and August 2018. Informed consent was obtained from 5473 patients of which 5190 were eligible for statistical analyses, 2490 in the control and 2700 in the intervention group. Thirty-day mortality was 0.56% (n = 14) in the control and 0.44% (n = 12) in the intervention group (odds ratio 0.74, 95% Confidence interval 0.34-1.62). Incidence of postoperative complications did not differ between groups except for renal complications which was higher in the control group (1.7% (n = 41) vs 1.0% (n = 27), P = 0.014). Median length of hospital stay did not differ significantly between groups. During the postanesthesia visits, for 16% (n = 437) and 11% (n = 293) of patients recommendations were given on day 1 and 3, respectively, of which 67% (n = 293) and 69% (n = 202) were followed up. Conclusions: The combination of MEWS and a postoperative anesthesia visit did not reduce 30-day mortality. Whether a postoperative anesthesia visit with strong adherence to the recommendations provided and in a high-risk population might have a stronger impact on postoperative mortality remains to be determined. Trial Registration: Netherlands Trial Registration, NTR5506/ NL5249, https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/5249