Correlation of wind and precipitation annual aggregate severity of European cyclones

This is the final version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record. Data availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store at https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6.This study has investigated the correlation between wind gust and precipitation annual aggregate severity arising from extratropical cyclones over the Europe-Atlantic region. Annual aggregate severity indices have been constructed by summing exceedances above chosen damage thresholds of wind gust and precipitation accumulation for all storms. A strong positive correlation between wind and precipitation aggregate severity exists at low thresholds. At higher thresholds where severity indices are a better reflection of wind and flood losses, negative correlations occur over Western Europe. These aggregates should therefore not be assumed to be either independent or positively correlated.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research CouncilWTW Research Networ

Optimisation of the RT-PCR detection of immunomagnetically enriched carcinoma cells

BACKGROUND: Immunomagnetic enrichment followed by RT-PCR (immunobead RT-PCR) is an efficient methodology to identify disseminated carcinoma cells in the blood and bone marrow. The RT-PCR assays must be both specific for the tumor cells and sufficiently sensitive to enable detection of single tumor cells. We have developed a method to test RT-PCR assays for any cancer. This has been investigated using a panel of RT-PCR markers suitable for the detection of breast cancer cells. METHODS: In the assay, a single cell line-derived tumor cell is added to 100 peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMNCs) after which mRNA is isolated and reverse transcribed for RT-PCR analysis. PBMNCs without added tumor cells are used as specificity controls. The previously studied markers epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), mammaglobin 1 (MGB1), epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM/TACSTD1), mucin 1 (MUC1), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) were tested. Two new epithelial-specific markers ELF3 and EphB4 were also tested. RESULTS: MUC1 was unsuitable as strong amplification was detected in 100 cell PBMNC controls. Expression of ELF3, EphB4, EpCAM, EGFR, CEA and MGB1 was found to be both specific for the tumor cell, as demonstrated by the absence of a signal in most 100 cell PBMNC controls, and sensitive enough to detect a single tumor cell in 100 PBMNCs using a single round of RT-PCR. CONCLUSIONS: ELF3, EphB4, EpCAM, EGFR, CEA and MGB1 are appropriate RT-PCR markers for use in a marker panel to detect disseminated breast cancer cells after immunomagnetic enrichment

Listening In on the Past: What Can Otolith δ18O Values Really Tell Us about the Environmental History of Fishes?

Oxygen isotope ratios from fish otoliths are used to discriminate marine stocks and reconstruct past climate, assuming that variations in otolith δ18O values closely reflect differences in temperature history of fish when accounting for salinity induced variability in water δ18O. To investigate this, we exploited the environmental and migratory data gathered from a decade using archival tags to study the behaviour of adult plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in the North Sea. Based on the tag-derived monthly distributions of the fish and corresponding temperature and salinity estimates modelled across three consecutive years, we first predicted annual otolith δ18O values for three geographically discrete offshore sub-stocks, using three alternative plausible scenarios for otolith growth. Comparison of predicted vs. measured annual δ18O values demonstrated >96% correct prediction of sub-stock membership, irrespective of the otolith growth scenario. Pronounced inter-stock differences in δ18O values, notably in summer, provide a robust marker for reconstructing broad-scale plaice distribution in the North Sea. However, although largely congruent, measured and predicted annual δ18O values of did not fully match. Small, but consistent, offsets were also observed between individual high-resolution otolith δ18O values measured during tag recording time and corresponding δ18O predictions using concomitant tag-recorded temperatures and location-specific salinity estimates. The nature of the shifts differed among sub-stocks, suggesting specific vital effects linked to variation in physiological response to temperature. Therefore, although otolith δ18O in free-ranging fish largely reflects environmental temperature and salinity, we counsel prudence when interpreting otolith δ18O data for stock discrimination or temperature reconstruction until the mechanisms underpinning otolith δ18O signature acquisition, and associated variation, are clarified

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Lassa Seropositivity in Inhabitants of the Forest Region of Guinea: A Cross-Sectional Study

Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in West Africa, mainly transmitted to humans by multimammate rats. Several modes of virus transmission are suspected: aerosolisation of the virus, contact with infected rodent excreta, and consumption of rodent meat. Person-to-person transmission also occurs via contact with body fluids of infected persons (blood, urine) and is responsible for numerous outbreaks, mostly in healthcare facilities. Our objective was to precisely describe risk factors for Lassa fever in both rural and urban communities of forest Guinea. For each participant, a standardized questionnaire was completed and a blood sample tested for Lassa virus antibodies. A total of 1424 subjects were interviewed and 977 blood samples tested. The prevalence of Lassa virus antibodies was estimated at 12.9% and 10.0% in rural and urban areas, respectively. The two risk factors were: to have, in the past twelve months, undergone an injection, or lived with someone displaying a haemorrhage. Contrary to our expectation, no factors related to contact with rodents were identified. It is still probable that transmission occurs via indirect contact between rodents and humans in households, but our results highlight the importance of person-to-person transmission via close contact and nosocomial exposure

Interoceptive hypersensitivity and interoceptive exposure in patients with panic disorder: specificity and effectiveness

BACKGROUND: Interoceptive exposure has been validated as an effective component of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for the treatment of panic disorder but has hitherto received little research attention. We examined the effectiveness of various interoceptive exposure exercises using the Body Sensations Questionnaire (BSQ) (Chambless et al., 1984). METHODS: We first performed an exploratory principal factor analysis of all the items contained in the BSQ to obtain meaningful dimensions of interoceptive fears. Next, we examined the correlations between each interoceptive exposure task's degree of similarity to panic attacks and each BSQ factor and then examined whether the BSQ factor scores decreased in comparison with the baseline values when the corresponding exposure tasks were successfully completed by the subjects. RESULTS: The factor analyses revealed four factors, which we named "pseudoneurological fears", "gastrointestinal fears", "cardiorespiratory fears" and "fears of dissociative feelings." Among the nine interoceptive exposure tasks, 'hyperventilation', 'shaking head', 'holding breath' and 'chest breathing' were considered to reproduce pseudoneurological symptoms, 'breathing through a straw' was considered to reproduce gastrointestinal symptoms, and 'spinning' was considered to reproduce both pseudoneurological and dissociative symptoms; none of the interoceptive exercises were found to reproduce cardiorespiratory symptoms. Among each group of patients for whom 'hyperventilation', 'holding breath', 'spinning' or 'chest breathing' was effective, a significant improvement in the BSQ pseudoneurological fears factor scores was observed. On the other hand, no significant difference between the baseline and endpoint values of the BSQ gastrointestinal fears or the BSQ fears of dissociative feelings factor scores were observed among the patients for whom 'spinning' or 'breathing through a straw' was effective. CONCLUSION: Several interoceptive exposure tasks were particularly effective in reducing pseudoneurological fears. New interoceptive tasks, especially tasks related to cardiorespiratory and dissociative feelings, are needed

Economic Analysis of Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Strategies in Singapore

BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling) compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay) depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines

The impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on HIV epidemics in Africa and India: A simulation study

Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a promising new HIV prevention method, especially for women. An urgent demand for implementation of PrEP is expected at the moment efficacy has been demonstrated in clinical trials. We explored the long-term impact of PrEP on HIV transmission in different HIV epidemics. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used a mathematical model that distinguishes the general population, sex workers and their clients. PrEP scenarios varying in effectiveness, coverage and target group were modeled in the epidemiological settings of Botswana, Nyanza Province in Kenya, and Southern India. We also studied the effect of condom addition or condom substitution during PrEP use. Main outcome was number of HIV infections averted over ten years of PrEP use. PrEP strategies with high effectiveness and high coverage can have a substantial impact in African settings. In Southern India, by contrast, the number of averted HIV infections in different PrEP scenarios would be much lower. The impact of PrEP may be strongly diminished or even reversed by behavioral disinhibition, especially in scenarios with low coverage and low effectiveness. However, additional condom use during low coverage and low effective PrEP doubled the amount of averted HIV infections. Conclusions/Significance: The public health impact of PrEP can be substantial. However, this impact may be diminished, or even reversed, by changes in risk behavior. Implementation of PrEP strategies should therefore come on top of current condom campaigns, not as a substitution

Between-Population Outbreeding Affects Plant Defence

Between-population crosses may replenish genetic variation of populations, but may also result in outbreeding depression. Apart from direct effects on plant fitness, these outbreeding effects can also alter plant-herbivore interactions by influencing plant tolerance and resistance to herbivory. We investigated effects of experimental within- and between-population outbreeding on herbivore resistance, tolerance and plant fitness using plants from 13 to 19 Lychnis flos-cuculi populations. We found no evidence for outbreeding depression in resistance reflected by the amount of leaf area consumed. However, herbivore performance was greater when fed on plants from between-population compared to within-population crosses. This can reflect outbreeding depression in resistance and/or outbreeding effects on plant quality for the herbivores. The effects of type of cross on the relationship between herbivore damage and plant fitness varied among populations. This demonstrates how between-population outbreeding effects on tolerance range from outbreeding depression to outbreeding benefits among plant populations. Finally, herbivore damage strengthened the observed outbreeding effects on plant fitness in several populations. These results raise novel considerations on the impact of outbreeding on the joint evolution of resistance and tolerance, and on the evolution of multiple defence strategies

A Full Pharmacological Analysis of the Three Turkey β-Adrenoceptors and Comparison with the Human β-Adrenoceptors

There are three turkey β-adrenoceptors: the original turkey β-adrenoceptor from erythrocytes (tβtrunc, for which the X-ray crystal structure has recently been determined), tβ3C and tβ4C-receptors. This study examined the similarities and differences between these avian receptors and mammalian receptors with regards to binding characteristics and functional high and low affinity agonist conformations.Stable cell lines were constructed with each of the turkey β-adrenoceptors and 3H-CGP12177 whole cell binding, CRE-SPAP production and (3)H-cAMP accumulation assays performed. It was confirmed that the three turkey β-adrenoceptors are distinct from each other in terms of amino acid sequence and binding characteristics. The greatest similarity of any of the turkey β-adrenoceptors to human β-adrenoceptors is between the turkey β3C-receptor and the human β2-adrenoceptor. There are pharmacologically distinct differences between the binding of ligands for the tβtrunc and tβ4C and the human β-adrenoceptors (e.g. with CGP20712A and ICI118551). The tβtrunc and tβ4C-adrenoceptors appear to exist in at least two different agonist conformations in a similar manner to that seen at both the human and rat β1-adrenoceptor and human β3-adrenoceptors. The tβ3C-receptor, similar to the human β2-adrenoceptor, does not, at least so far, appear to exist in more than one agonist conformation.There are several similarities, but also several important differences, between the recently crystallised turkey β-adrenoceptor and the human β-adrenoceptors. These findings are important for those the field of drug discovery using the recently structural information from crystallised receptors to aid drug design. Furthermore, comparison of the amino-acid sequence for the turkey and human adrenoceptors may therefore shed more light on the residues involved in the existence of the secondary β-adrenoceptor conformation

Antiretroviral Outcomes in South African Prisoners: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

Background and Methods: Little is known about antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes in prisoners in Africa. We conducted a retrospective review of outcomes of a large cohort of prisoners referred to a public sector, urban HIV clinic. The review included baseline characteristics, sequential CD4 cell counts and viral load results, complications and co-morbidities, mortality and loss to follow-up up to 96 weeks on ART. Findings: 148 inmates (133 male) initiated on ART were included in the study. By week 96 on ART, 73 % of all inmates enrolled in the study and 92 % of those still accessing care had an undetectable viral load (,400copies/ml). The median CD4 cell count increased from 122 cells/mm 3 at baseline to 356 cells/mm 3 by 96 weeks. By study end, 96 (65%) inmates had ever received tuberculosis (TB) therapy with 63 (43%) receiving therapy during the study: 28 % had a history of TB prior to ART initiation, 33 % were on TB therapy at ART initiation and 22 % developed TB whilst on ART. Nine (6%) inmates died, 7 in the second year on ART. Loss to follow-up (LTF) was common: 14 (9%) patients were LTF whilst still incarcerated, 11 (7%) were LTF post-release and 9 (6%) whose movements could not be traced. 16 (11%) inmates had inter-correctional facility transfers and 34 (23%) were released of whom only 23 (68%) returned to the ART clinic for ongoing follow-up. Conclusions: Inmates responded well to ART, despite a high frequency of TB/HIV co-infection. Attention should be directed towards ensuring eligible prisoners access ART programs promptly and that inter-facility transfers and release procedure