Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach

This article describes the use of an original modeling approach to assess the risk of yellow fever (YF) epidemics. YF is a viral hemorrhagic fever responsible in past centuries for devastating outbreaks. Since the 1930s, a vaccine has been available that protects the individual for at least 10 years, if not for life. However, immunization of populations in African countries was gradually discontinued after the 1960s. With the decrease in immunity against YF in African populations the disease reemerged in the 1980s. In 2005, WHO, UNICEF, and the GAVI Alliance decided to support preventive vaccination of at-risk populations in West African endemic countries in order to tackle the reemergence of YF and reduce the risk of urban YF outbreaks. Financial resources were made available to scale up a global YF vaccine stockpile and to support countries with limited resources in the management of preventive vaccination campaigns. This article describes the process we used to determine the most at-risk populations using a mathematical model to prioritize targeted immunization campaigns. We believe that this approach could be useful for other diseases for which decision making process is difficult because of limited data availability, complex risk variables, and a need for rapid decisions and implementation

T-Cell Memory Responses Elicited by Yellow Fever Vaccine are Targeted to Overlapping Epitopes Containing Multiple HLA-I and -II Binding Motifs

The yellow fever vaccines (YF-17D-204 and 17DD) are considered to be among the safest vaccines and the presence of neutralizing antibodies is correlated with protection, although other immune effector mechanisms are known to be involved. T-cell responses are known to play an important role modulating antibody production and the killing of infected cells. However, little is known about the repertoire of T-cell responses elicited by the YF-17DD vaccine in humans. In this report, a library of 653 partially overlapping 15-mer peptides covering the envelope (Env) and nonstructural (NS) proteins 1 to 5 of the vaccine was utilized to perform a comprehensive analysis of the virus-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses. The T-cell responses were screened ex-vivo by IFN-γ ELISPOT assays using blood samples from 220 YF-17DD vaccinees collected two months to four years after immunization. Each peptide was tested in 75 to 208 separate individuals of the cohort. The screening identified sixteen immunodominant antigens that elicited activation of circulating memory T-cells in 10% to 33% of the individuals. Biochemical in-vitro binding assays and immunogenetic and immunogenicity studies indicated that each of the sixteen immunogenic 15-mer peptides contained two or more partially overlapping epitopes that could bind with high affinity to molecules of different HLAs. The prevalence of the immunogenicity of a peptide in the cohort was correlated with the diversity of HLA-II alleles that they could bind. These findings suggest that overlapping of HLA binding motifs within a peptide enhances its T-cell immunogenicity and the prevalence of the response in the population. In summary, the results suggests that in addition to factors of the innate immunity, "promiscuous" T-cell antigens might contribute to the high efficacy of the yellow fever vaccines. © 2013 de Melo et al

Moving interdisciplinary science forward: integrating participatory modelling with mathematical modelling of zoonotic disease in Africa

This review outlines the benefits of using multiple approaches to improve model design and facilitate multidisciplinary research into infectious diseases, as well as showing and proposing practical examples of effective integration. It looks particularly at the benefits of using participatory research in conjunction with traditional modelling methods to potentially improve disease research, control and management. Integrated approaches can lead to more realistic mathematical models which in turn can assist with making policy decisions that reduce disease and benefit local people. The emergence, risk, spread and control of diseases are affected by many complex bio-physical, environmental and socio-economic factors. These include climate and environmental change, land-use variation, changes in population and people’s behaviour. The evidence base for this scoping review comes from the work of a consortium, with the aim of integrating modelling approaches traditionally used in epidemiological, ecological and development research. A total of five examples of the impacts of participatory research on the choice of model structure are presented. Example 1 focused on using participatory research as a tool to structure a model. Example 2 looks at identifying the most relevant parameters of the system. Example 3 concentrates on identifying the most relevant regime of the system (e.g., temporal stability or otherwise), Example 4 examines the feedbacks from mathematical models to guide participatory research and Example 5 goes beyond the so-far described two-way interplay between participatory and mathematical approaches to look at the integration of multiple methods and frameworks. This scoping review describes examples of best practice in the use of participatory methods, illustrating their potential to overcome disciplinary hurdles and promote multidisciplinary collaboration, with the aim of making models and their predictions more useful for decision-making and policy formulation

NF90 Binds the Dengue Virus RNA 3′ Terminus and is a Positive Regulator of Dengue Virus Replication

Background Viral RNA translation and replication are regulated by sequence and structural elements in the 5′ and 3′ untranslated regions (UTR) and by host cell and/or viral proteins that bind them. Dengue virus has a single-stranded RNA genome with positive polarity, a 5′ m7GpppG cap, and a conserved 3′-terminal stem loop (SL) that is linked to proposed functions in viral RNA transcription and translation. Mechanisms explaining the contributions of host proteins to viral RNA translation and replication are poorly defined, yet understanding host protein-viral RNA interactions may identify new targets for therapeutic intervention. This study was directed at identifying functionally significant host proteins that bind the conserved dengue virus RNA 3′ terminus. Methodology/Principal Findings Proteins eluted from a dengue 3′ SL RNA affinity column at increasing ionic strength included two with double-strand RNA binding motifs (NF90/DRBP76 and DEAH box polypeptide 9/RNA helicase A (RHA)), in addition to NF45, which forms a heterodimer with NF90. Although detectable NF90 and RHA proteins localized to the nucleus of uninfected cells, immunofluorescence revealed cytoplasmic NF90 in dengue virus-infected cells, leading us to hypothesize that NF90 has a functional role(s) in dengue infections. Cells depleted of NF90 were used to quantify viral RNA transcript levels and production of infectious dengue virus. NF90 depletion was accompanied by a 50%-70% decrease in dengue RNA levels and in production of infectious viral progeny. Conclusions/Significance The results indicate that NF90 interacts with the 3′ SL structure of the dengue RNA and is a positive regulator of dengue virus replication. NF90 depletion diminished the production of infectious dengue virus by more than 50%, which may have important significance for identifying therapeutic targets to limit a virus that threatens more than a billion people worldwide.Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Award (NIH-NRSA GM64985)UNCF-Merck Postdoctoral FellowshipNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U.S.)Ellison Medical Foundatio

Broad Spectrum Antiviral Activity of Favipiravir (T-705): Protection from Highly Lethal Inhalational Rift Valley Fever

Background:Development of antiviral drugs that have broad-spectrum activity against a number of viral infections would be of significant benefit. Due to the evolution of resistance to currently licensed antiviral drugs, development of novel anti-influenza drugs is in progress, including Favipiravir (T-705), which is currently in human clinical trials. T-705 displays broad-spectrum in vitro activity against a number of viruses, including Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV). RVF is an important neglected tropical disease that causes human, agricultural, and economic losses in endemic regions. RVF has the capacity to emerge in new locations and also presents a potential bioterrorism threat. In the current study, the in vivo efficacy of T-705 was evaluated in Wistar-Furth rats infected with the virulent ZH501 strain of RVFV by the aerosol route.Methodology/Principal Findings:Wistar-Furth rats are highly susceptible to a rapidly lethal disease after parenteral or inhalational exposure to the pathogenic ZH501 strain of RVFV. In the current study, two experiments were performed: a dose-determination study and a delayed-treatment study. In both experiments, all untreated control rats succumbed to disease. Out of 72 total rats infected with RVFV and treated with T-705, only 6 succumbed to disease. The remaining 66 rats (92%) survived lethal infection with no significant weight loss or fever. The 6 treated rats that succumbed survived significantly longer before succumbing to encephalitic disease.Conclusions/Significance:Currently, there are no licensed antiviral drugs for treating RVF. Here, T-705 showed remarkable efficacy in a highly lethal rat model of Rift Valley Fever, even when given up to 48 hours post-infection. This is the first study to show protection of rats infected with the pathogenic ZH501 strain of RVFV. Our data suggest that T-705 has potential to be a broad-spectrum antiviral drug. © 2014 Caroline et al