Continuing rise of Type 2 diabetes incidence in children and young people in the UK.

Aims To estimate the incidence of Type 2 diabetes in children aged <17 years, compare this with similar data 10 years ago, and characterize clinical features at diagnosis in the UK and Republic of Ireland. Methods Using the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit reporting framework, cases of Type 2 diabetes diagnosed in children aged <17 years between 1 April 2015 and 30 April 2016 were reported each month. Results A total of 106 cases were reported, giving a UK incidence of 0.72/100 000 (95% CI 0.58–0.88). Children from ethnic minorities had significantly higher incidence compared with white children (0.44/100 000) with rates of 2.92/100 000 and 1.67/100 000, in Asian and BACBB (black/African/Caribbean/black British) children respectively. Sixty-seven percent were girls and 81% had a family history of Type 2 diabetes. The mean BMI sd score at diagnosis was 2.89 (2.88, girls; 2.92, boys); 81% were obese. Children of Asian ethnicity had a significantly lower BMI sd score compared with white children (P<0.001). There was a trend in increased incidence from 2005 to 2015, with a rate ratio of 1.35 (95% CI 0.99–1.84), although this was not statistically significant (P=0.062). There was statistical evidence of increased incidence among girls (P=0.03) and children of South-Asian ethnicity (P=0.01) when comparing the 2005 and 2015 surveys. Conclusions Type 2 diabetes remains far less common than Type 1 diabetes in childhood in the UK, but the number of cases continues to rise, with significantly increased incidence among girls and South-Asian children over a decade. Female gender, family history, non-white ethnicity and obesity were found to be strongly associated with the condition

Trends and cyclical variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in 26 European centres in the 25 year period 1989-2013: a multicentre prospective registration study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years. METHODS:Age/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25 years during the period 1989-2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends. RESULTS:Significant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004-2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4 year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:Despite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20 years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4 year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given