Does the Arctic Amplification peak this decade?

Temperatures rise faster in the Arctic than on global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. While this is well established from observations and model simulations, projections of future climate (here: RCP8.5) with models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) also indicate that the Arctic Amplification has a maximum. We show this by means of an Arctic Amplification factor (AAF), which we define as the ratio of Arctic mean to global mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies. The SAT anomalies are referenced to the period 1960-1980 and smoothed by a 30-year running mean. For October, the multi-model ensemble-mean AAF reaches a maximum in 2017. The maximum moves however to later years as Arctic winter progresses: for the autumn mean SAT (September to November) the maximum AAF is found in 2028 and for winter (December to February) in 2060. Arctic Amplification is driven, amongst others, by the ice-albedo feedback (IAF) as part of the more general surface albedo feedback (involving clouds, snow cover, vegetation changes) and temperature effects (Planck and lapse-rate feedbacks).We note that sea ice retreat and the associated warming of the summer Arctic Ocean are not only an integral part of the IAF but are also involved in the other drivers. In the CMIP5 simulations, the timing of the AAF maximum coincides with the period of fastest ice retreat for the respective month. Presence of at least some sea ice is crucial for the IAF to be effective because of the contrast in surface albedo between ice and open water and the need to turn ocean warming into ice melt. Once large areas of the Arctic Ocean are ice-free, the IAF should be less effective. We thus hypothesize that the ice retreat significantly affects AAF variability and forces a decline of its magnitude after at least half of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free and the ice cover becomes basically seasonal

The Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system is entering a seasonal regime: Implications for future Arctic amplification

The loss of Arctic sea ice is a conspicuous example of climate change. Climate models project ice-free conditions during summer this century under realistic emission scenarios, reflecting the increase in seasonality in ice cover. To quantify the increased seasonality in the Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system, we define a non-dimensional seasonality number for sea ice extent, area, and volume from satellite data and realistic coupled climate models. We show that the Arctic-Subarctic, i.e. The northern hemisphere, sea ice now exhibits similar levels of seasonality to the Antarctic, which is in a seasonal regime without significant change since satellite observations began in 1979. Realistic climate models suggest that this transition to the seasonal regime is being accompanied by a maximum in Arctic amplification, which is the faster warming of Arctic latitudes compared to the global mean, in the 2010s. The strong link points to a peak in sea-ice-related feedbacks that occurs long before the Arctic becomes ice-free in summer

Gravity and height variations during the present rifting episode in Northern Iceland

In 1975, a rifting episode started in the neovolcanic zone of northern Iceland, consisting of a succession of slow inflation periods and rapid subsidence events, which is still going on. The center of activity is situated below the Krafla caldera, and the rifting process is affecting the 80-km-long fissure swarm associated with this central volcano. Gravity and height variations associated with this process have been investigated by re-observing profiles earlier established in the Namafjall and in the Gjastikki area, situated nearly 10 km south and north of Krafla respectively, as well as by the re-observation of a number of gravity stations in the northern part of the fissure zone, in 1976, 1977, and 1978. By repeated observations with 2 or 3 LaCoste-Romberg gravity meters, the accuracy obtained in each gravity survey is of the order of ± 10 x 10-8 ms-2. In the profiles crossing the fissure zones, a rate of gravity increase of more than 100 x 10-8 ms-2/a has been found in the central part, while gravity at the flanks decreases at the same order. These variations are correlated with subsidence and elevation rates of the order of 0.5 m/a.           ARK: https://n2t.net/ark:/88439/y060150 Permalink: https://geophysicsjournal.com/article/268 &nbsp

Accuracy analysis of vertical deflection data observed with the Hannover Digital Zenith Camera System TZK2-D

This paper analyses the accuracy of vertical deflection measurements carried out with the Digital Zenith Camera System TZK2-D, an astrogeodetic state-of-the-art instrumentation developed at the University of Hannover. During 107 nights over a period of 3.5 years, the system was used for repeated vertical deflection observations at a selected station in Hannover. The acquired data set consists of about 27,300 single measurements and covers 276 h of observation time, respectively. For the data collected at an earlier stage of development (2003 to 2004), the accuracy of the nightly mean values has been found to be about 0".10-0".12. Due to applying a refined observation strategy since 2005, the accuracy of the vertical deflection measurements was enhanced into the unprecedented range of 0".05-0".08. Accessing the accuracy level of 0".05 requires usually 1 h of observational data, while the 0".08 accuracy level is attained after 20 min measurement time. In comparison to the analogue era of geodetic astronomy, the accuracy of vertical deflection observations is significantly improved by about one order of magnitude

Self-attraction effect and correction on three absolute gravimeters

The perturbations of the gravitational field due to the mass distribution of an absolute gravimeter have been studied. The so called Self Attraction Effect (SAE) is crucial for the measurement accuracy, especially for the International Comparisons, and for the uncertainty budget evaluation. Three instruments have been analysed: MPG-2, FG5-238 and IMPG-02. The SAE has been calculated using a numerical method based on FEM simulation. The observed effect has been treated as an additional vertical gravity gradient. The correction (SAC) to be applied to the computed g value has been associated with the specific height level, where the measurement result is typically reported. The magnitude of the obtained corrections is of order 1E-8 m/s2.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Metrologi

Combining EGM2008 and SRTM/DTM2006.0 residual terrain model data to improve quasigeoid computations in mountainous areas devoid of gravity data

A global geopotential model, like EGM2008, is not capable of representing the high-frequency components of Earth?s gravity field. This is known as the omission error. In mountainous terrain, omission errors in EGM2008, even when expanded to degree 2,190, may reach amplitudes of10cm and more for height anomalies. The present paper proposes the utilisation of high-resolution residual terrain model (RTM) data for computing estimates of the omission error in rugged terrain. RTM elevations may be constructed as the difference between the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) elevation model and the DTM2006.0 spherical harmonic topographic expansion. Numerical tests, carried out in the German Alps with a precise gravimetric quasigeoid model (GCG05) and GPS/levelling data as references, demonstrate that RTM-based omission error estimatesimprove EGM2008 height anomaly differences by 10cm in many cases. The comparisons of EGM2008-only height anomalies and the GCG05 model showed 3.7 cm standard deviation after a bias-fit. Applying RTM omission error estimates to EGM2008 reduces the standard deviation to 1.9 cm which equates to a significant improvement rate of 47%. Using GPS/levelling data strongly corroborates thesefindings with an improvement rate of 49%. The proposed RTM approach may be of practical value to improve quasigeoid determination in mountainous areas without sufficient regional gravity data coverage, e.g., in parts of Asia, South America or Africa. As a further application, RTMomission error estimates will allow refined validation of global gravity field models like EGM2008 from GPS/levelling data

Mutual Validation of GNSS Height Measurements and High-precision Geometric-astronomical Leveling

The method of geometric-astronomical leveling is presented as a suited technique for the validation of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) heights. In geometric-astronomical leveling, the ellipsoidal height differences are obtained by combining conventional spirit leveling and astronomical leveling. Astronomical leveling with recently developed digital zenith camera systems is capable of providing the geometry of equipotential surfaces of the gravity field accurate to a few 0.1 mm per km. This is comparable to the accuracy of spirit leveling. Consequently, geometric-astronomical leveling yields accurate ellipsoidal height differences that may serve as an independent check on GNSS height measurements at local scales. A test was performed in a local geodetic network near Hanover. GPS observations were simultaneously carried out at five stations over a time span of 48 h and processed considering state-of-the-art techniques and sophisticated new approaches to reduce station-dependent errors. The comparison of GPS height differences with those from geometric-astronomical leveling shows a promising agreement of some millimeters. The experiment indicates the currently achievable accuracy level of GPS height measurements and demonstrates the practical applicability of the proposed approach for the validation of GNSS height measurements as well as the evaluation of GNSS height processing strategies