2,000-year-long temperature and hydrology reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific warm pool

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 460 (2009): 1113-1116, doi:10.1038/nature08233.Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions suggest that the late twentieth century was warmer than any other time during the past 500 years and possibly any time during the past 1,300 years. These temperature reconstructions are based largely on terrestrial records from extra-tropical or highelevation sites; however, global average surface temperature changes closely follow those of the global tropics, which are 75% ocean. In particular, the tropical Indo- Pacific warm pool (IPWP) represents a major heat reservoir that both influences global atmospheric circulation and responds to remote northern latitude forcings. Here we present a decadally resolved continuous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction from the IPWP that spans the past two millennia and overlaps the instrumental record, enabling both a direct comparison of proxy data to the instrumental record and an evaluation of past changes in the context of twentieth century trends. Our record from the Makassar Strait, Indonesia, exhibits trends that are similar to a recent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Reconstructed SST was, however, within error of modern values during the Medieval Warm Period from about AD 1000 to AD 1250, towards the end of the Medieval Warm Period. SSTs during the Little Ice Age (approximately ad 1550–1850) were variable, and 0.5 to 1°C colder than modern values during the coldest intervals. A companion reconstruction of δ18O of sea water—a sea surface salinity and hydrology indicator— indicates a tight coupling with the East Asian monsoon system and remote control of IPWP hydrology on centennial–millennial timescales, rather than a dominant influence from local SST variation.This work was financially supported by the US NSF and the Ocean Climate Change Institute of WHOI

Hidden expectations: Scaffolding subject specialists' genre knowledge of the assignments they set

Subject specialists’ knowledge of academic and disciplinary literacy is often tacit. We tackle the issue of how to elicit subject specialists’ tacit knowledge in order to develop their pedagogical practices and enable them to communicate this knowledge to students. Drawing on theories of genre and metacognition, a professional development activity was designed and delivered. Our aims were to (1) build participants’ genre knowledge and (2) scaffold metacognitive awareness of how genre knowledge can enhance their pedagogical practices. The findings reveal that participants built a genre-based understanding of academic literacy and that the tasks provided them with an accessible framework to articulate and reflect upon their knowledge of disciplinary literacy. Participants gained metacognitive awareness of misalignments between what they teach and what they expect from students, their assumptions about students’ prior learning and genre-based strategies to adapt their practice to students’ needs. Our approach provides a theoretically grounded professional development tool for the HE sector

Bayesian inversion of synthetic AVO data to assess fluid and shale content in sand-shale media

Reservoir characterization of sand-shale sequences has always challenged geoscientists due to the presence of anisotropy in the form of shale lenses or shale layers. Water saturation and volume of shale are among the fundamental reservoir properties of interest for sand-shale intervals, and relate to the amount of fluid content and accumulating potentials of such media. This paper suggests an integrated workflow using synthetic data for the characterization of shaley-sand media based on anisotropic rock physics (T-matrix approximation) and seismic reflectivity modelling. A Bayesian inversion scheme for estimating reservoir parameters from amplitude vs. offset (AVO) data was used to obtain the information about uncertainties as well as their most likely values. The results from our workflow give reliable estimates of water saturation from AVO data at small uncertainties, provided background sand porosity values and isotropic overburden properties are known. For volume of shale, the proposed workflow provides reasonable estimates even when larger uncertainties are present in AVO data

Gaze fixation improves the stability of expert juggling

Novice and expert jugglers employ different visuomotor strategies: whereas novices look at the balls around their zeniths, experts tend to fixate their gaze at a central location within the pattern (so-called gaze-through). A gaze-through strategy may reflect visuomotor parsimony, i.e., the use of simpler visuomotor (oculomotor and/or attentional) strategies as afforded by superior tossing accuracy and error corrections. In addition, the more stable gaze during a gaze-through strategy may result in more accurate movement planning by providing a stable base for gaze-centered neural coding of ball motion and movement plans or for shifts in attention. To determine whether a stable gaze might indeed have such beneficial effects on juggling, we examined juggling variability during 3-ball cascade juggling with and without constrained gaze fixation (at various depths) in expert performers (n = 5). Novice jugglers were included (n = 5) for comparison, even though our predictions pertained specifically to expert juggling. We indeed observed that experts, but not novices, juggled significantly less variable when fixating, compared to unconstrained viewing. Thus, while visuomotor parsimony might still contribute to the emergence of a gaze-through strategy, this study highlights an additional role for improved movement planning. This role may be engendered by gaze-centered coding and/or attentional control mechanisms in the brain

Effective Rheology of Bubbles Moving in a Capillary Tube

We calculate the average volumetric flux versus pressure drop of bubbles moving in a single capillary tube with varying diameter, finding a square-root relation from mapping the flow equations onto that of a driven overdamped pendulum. The calculation is based on a derivation of the equation of motion of a bubble train from considering the capillary forces and the entropy production associated with the viscous flow. We also calculate the configurational probability of the positions of the bubbles.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur

Judgment of the Humanness of an Interlocutor Is in the Eye of the Beholder

Despite tremendous advances in artificial language synthesis, no machine has so far succeeded in deceiving a human. Most research focused on analyzing the behavior of “good” machine. We here choose an opposite strategy, by analyzing the behavior of “bad” humans, i.e., humans perceived as machine. The Loebner Prize in Artificial Intelligence features humans and artificial agents trying to convince judges on their humanness via computer-mediated communication. Using this setting as a model, we investigated here whether the linguistic behavior of human subjects perceived as non-human would enable us to identify some of the core parameters involved in the judgment of an agents' humanness. We analyzed descriptive and semantic aspects of dialogues in which subjects succeeded or failed to convince judges of their humanness. Using cognitive and emotional dimensions in a global behavioral characterization, we demonstrate important differences in the patterns of behavioral expressiveness of the judges whether they perceived their interlocutor as being human or machine. Furthermore, the indicators of interest displayed by the judges were predictive of the final judgment of humanness. Thus, we show that the judgment of an interlocutor's humanness during a social interaction depends not only on his behavior, but also on the judge himself. Our results thus demonstrate that the judgment of humanness is in the eye of the beholder

Global and local sea level during the Last Interglacial: A probabilistic assessment

The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inferred that LIG global sea level (GSL) was about 4-6 m higher than today. However, because local sea levels differ from GSL, accurately reconstructing past GSL requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we compile an extensive database of sea level indicators and apply a novel statistical approach that couples Gaussian process regression of sea level to Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling of geochronological errors. Our analysis strongly supports the hypothesis that LIG GSL was higher than today, probably peaking at 6-9 m. Our results highlight the sea level hazard associated with even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.Comment: Preprint version of what has since been published in Natur

"I am pregnant and my husband has diabetes. Is there a risk for my child?" A qualitative study of questions asked by email about the role of genetic susceptibility to diabetes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Diabetes Mellitus is a global health problem. Scientific knowledge on the genetics of diabetes is expanding and is more and more utilised in clinical practice and primary prevention strategies. Health consumers have become increasingly interested in genetic information. In the Netherlands, the <it>National Genetic Research and Information Center </it>provides online information about the genetics of diabetes and thereby offers website visitors the opportunity to ask a question per email. The current study aims at exploring people's need of (additional) information about the role of inheritance in diabetes. Results may help to tailor existing clinical and public (online) genetic information to the needs of an increasing population at risk for diabetes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A data base with emailed questions about diabetes and inheritance (n = 172) is used in a secondary content analysis. Questions are posted in 2005-2009 via a website providing information about more than 600 inheritable disorders, including all diabetes subtypes. Queries submitted were classified by contents as well as persons' demographic profiles.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Questions were received by diabetes patients (49%), relatives (30%), and partners (21%). Questioners were relatively young (54.8% ≤ 30 years) and predominantly female (83%). Most queries related to type 1 diabetes and concerned topics related to (future) pregnancy and family planning. Questioners mainly asked for risk estimation, but also clarifying information (about genetics of diabetes in general) and advice (mostly related to family planning) was requested. Preventive advice to reduce own diabetes risk was hardly sought.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Genetic information on diabetes provided by professionals or public health initiatives should address patients, as well as relatives and partners. In particular women are receptive to genetic information; they worry about the diabetes related health of (future) offspring. It seems important that information on the contribution of genetics to type 1 diabetes is more readily available. Considering the high prevalence of type 2 diabetes with strong evidence for a genetic predisposition, more effort seems needed to promote awareness around familial clustering and primary prevention.</p

Temporal allocation of foraging effort in female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus)

Across an individual\u27s life, foraging decisions will be affected by multiple intrinsic and extrinsic drivers that act at differing timescales. This study aimed to assess how female Australian fur seals allocated foraging effort and the behavioural changes used to achieve this at three temporal scales: within a day, across a foraging trip and across the final six months of the lactation period. Foraging effort peaked during daylight hours (57% of time diving) with lulls in activity just prior to and after daylight. Dive duration reduced across the day (196 s to 168 s) but this was compensated for by an increase in the vertical travel rate (1500&ndash;1600 m&bull;h&minus;1) and a reduction in postdive duration (111&ndash;90 s). This suggests physiological constraints (digestive costs) or prey availability may be limiting mean dive durations as a day progresses. During short trips (&lt;2.9 d), effort remained steady at 55% of time diving, whereas, on long trips (&gt;2.9 d) effort increased up to 2&ndash;3 d and then decreased. Dive duration decreased at the same rate in short and long trips, respectively, before stabilising (long trips) between 4&ndash;5 d. Suggesting that the same processes (digestive costs or prey availability) working at the daily scale may also be present across a trip. Across the lactation period, foraging effort, dive duration and vertical travel rate increased until August, before beginning to decrease. This suggests that as the nutritional demands of the suckling pup and developing foetus increase, female effort increases to accommodate this, providing insight into the potential constraints of maternal investment in this specie

What do parents think about parental participation in school-based interventions on energy balance-related behaviours? a qualitative study in 4 countries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Overweight and obesity in youth has increased dramatically. Therefore, overweight prevention initiatives should start early in life and target modifiable energy balance-related behaviours. Parental participation is often advocated as important for school-based interventions, however, getting parents involved in school-based interventions appears to be challenging based on earlier intervention experiences. The purpose of this study was to get insight into the determinants of and perspectives on parental participation in school-interventions on energy balance-related behaviours (physical activity, healthy eating, sedentary behaviours) in parents of ten- to twelve-year olds in order to develop an effective parental module for school-based interventions concerning energy balance-related behaviours.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Four countries (Belgium, Hungary, Norway and Spain) conducted the focus group research based on a standardised protocol and a semi-structured questioning route. A variation in parental socio-economic status (SES) and parental school involvement was taken into account when recruiting the parents. The audio taped interviews were transcribed, and a qualitative content analysis of the transcripts was conducted in each country.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Seventeen focus group interviews were conducted with a total of 92 parents (12 men, 80 women). Physical activity was considered to be a joint responsibility of school and parents, nutrition as parent's responsibility but supported by the school, and prevention of sedentary behaviours as parent's sole responsibility. Parents proposed interactive and practical activities together with their child as the best way to involve them such as cooking, food tasting, nutrition workshops, walking or cycling tours, sport initiations together with their child. Activities should be cheap, on a convenient moment, focused on their children and not on themselves, not tutoring, not theoretical, and school-or home-based.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Parents want to be involved in activities related to energy balance-related behaviours if this implies 'doing things together' with their child at school or at home.</p