GCRF African SWIFT White Paper Policy Brief: The future of African weather forecasting

There is a huge opportunity for the African continent to benefit from the ‘silent revolution’ in weather forecasting that has been realised in the mid-latitudes throughout the twentieth century. While there are tremendous societal and economic benefits from advancing the science behind weather forecasting in sub-Saharan Africa, there are also significant barriers to realising advances. This policy brief examines the value of investment in African weather forecasting science and the technical & communication challenges that this will bring with wider implementation

GCRF African SWIFT and ForPAc SHEAR White Paper on the Potential of Operational Weather Prediction to Save Lives and Improve Livelihoods and Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa

The ‘silent revolution’ of numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to significant social benefits and billions of dollars in economic benefits to mid-latitude countries, however the level of benefit in sub-Saharan Africa has been very limited, despite the potential to save lives, improve livelihoods, protect property and infrastructure and boost economies. Ongoing climate change in Africa, and the associated projected intensification of weather impacts in coming decades, makes the realisation of effective and more reliable weather forecasts and climate services even more urgent. It is widely recognised that to achieve this potential, investment is required in strengthening decision makers’ understanding of weather predictions and confidence in interpreting and appropriately applying forecasts, alongside transparent communication of the levels of skill and probability or certainty in forecast products. However, on all time scales of prediction, it is generally unrecognised that many forecasts that produce user-relevant metrics have such low skill that they are only marginally valuable to stakeholders, creating significant practical and ethical barriers to increasing uptake and generating benefits. Here, we present substantial evidence that even a modest investment in science for weather information and forecast techniques, to provide new technology and tools for Africa, can significantly increase the skill of user-relevant forecast products on all time scales. This will be a necessary enabler for building trust in and uptake of decision-relevant forecasts with the potential to deliver significant social and economic benefits. We present here an argument that incremental improvements in the skill of weather forecasting across all timescales in the African tropics, alongside strengthening communication and understanding of these forecasts, is fundamental to saving lives and enhancing livelihoods. Investing in the capacity and capability of National Meteorological Services and research institutions is essential to ensure lifesaving and life-enhancing services continue to be developed with and designed to serve the populations of sub-Saharan countries

The possible role of local air pollution in climate change in West Africa

The climate of West Africa is characterized by a sensitive monsoon system that is associated with marked natural precipitation variability. This region has been and is projected to be subject to substantial global and regional-scale changes including greenhouse-gas-induced warming and sea-level rise, land-use and land-cover change, and substantial biomass burning. We argue that more attention should be paid to rapidly increasing air pollution over the explosively growing cities of West Africa, as experiences from other regions suggest that this can alter regional climate through the influences of aerosols on clouds and radiation, and will also affect human health and food security. We need better observations and models to quantify the magnitude and characteristics of these impacts

Famine food of vegetal origin consumed in the Netherlands during World War II

Background: Periods of extreme food shortages during war force people to eat food that they normally do not consider edible. The last time that countries in Western Europe experienced severe scarcities was during World War II. The so-called Dutch famine or Hunger Winter (1944-1945) made at least 25,000 victims. The Dutch government took action by opening soup kitchens and providing information on wild plants and other famine food sources in "wartime cookbooks." The Dutch wartime diet has never been examined from an ethnobotanical perspective. Methods: We interviewed 78 elderly Dutch citizens to verify what they remembered of the consumption of vegetal and fungal famine food during World War II by them and their close surroundings. We asked whether they experienced any adverse effects from consuming famine food plants and how they knew they were edible. We identified plant species mentioned during interviews by their local Dutch names and illustrated field guides and floras. We hypothesized that people living in rural areas consumed more wild species than urban people. A Welch t test was performed to verify whether the number of wild and cultivated species differed between urban and rural citizens. Results: A total number of 38 emergency food species (14 cultivated and 21 wild plants, three wild fungi) were mentioned during interviews. Sugar beets, tulip bulbs, and potato peels were most frequently consumed. Regularly eaten wild species were common nettle, blackberry, and beechnuts. Almost one third of our interviewees explicitly described to have experienced extreme hunger during the war. People from rural areas listed significantly more wild species than urban people. The number of cultivated species consumed by both groups was similar. Negative effects were limited to sore throats and stomachache from the consumption of sugar beets and tulip bulbs. Knowledge on the edibility of famine food was obtained largely by oral transmission; few people remembered the written recipes in wartime cookbooks. Conclusion: This research shows that 71years after the Second World War, knowledge on famine food species, once crucial for people's survival, is still present in the Dutch society. The information on famine food sources supplied by several institutions was not distributed widely. For the necessary revival of famine food knowledge during the 1940s, people needed to consult a small group of elders. Presumed toxicity was a major reason given by our participants to explain why they did not collect wild plants or mushrooms during the war

Observing convective aggregation

Convective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical simulations. While there is a rich history of observational work on convective clustering and organization, there have been only a few studies that have analyzed observations to look specifically for processes related to self-aggregation in models. Here we review observational work in both of these categories and motivate the need for more of this work. We acknowledge that self-aggregation may appear to be far-removed from observed convective organization in terms of time scales, initial conditions, initiation processes, and mean state extremes, but we argue that these differences vary greatly across the diverse range of model simulations in the literature and that these comparisons are already offering important insights into real tropical phenomena. Some preliminary new findings are presented, including results showing that a self-aggregation simulation with square geometry has too broad a distribution of humidity and is too dry in the driest regions when compared with radiosonde records from Nauru, while an elongated channel simulation has realistic representations of atmospheric humidity and its variability. We discuss recent work increasing our understanding of how organized convection and climate change may interact, and how model discrepancies related to this question are prompting interest in observational comparisons. We also propose possible future directions for observational work related to convective aggregation, including novel satellite approaches and a ground-based observational network

Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale

African society is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The representation of convection in climate models has so far restricted our ability to accurately simulate African weather extremes, limiting climate change predictions. Here we show results from climate change experiments with a convection-permitting (4.5 km grid-spacing) model, for the first time over an Africa-wide domain (CP4A). The model realistically captures hourly rainfall characteristics, unlike coarser resolution models. CP4A shows greater future increases in extreme 3-hourly precipitation compared to a convection-parameterised 25 km model (R25). CP4A also shows future increases in dry spell length during the wet season over western and central Africa, weaker or not apparent in R25. These differences relate to the more realistic representation of convection in CP4A, and its response to increasing atmospheric moisture and stability. We conclude that, with the more accurate representation of convection, projected changes in both wet and dry extremes over Africa may be more severe

Ubiquity and impact of thin mid-level clouds in the tropics

Clouds are crucial for Earth's climate and radiation budget. Great attention has been paid to low, high and vertically thick tropospheric clouds such as stratus, cirrus and deep convective clouds. However, much less is known about tropospheric mid-level clouds as these clouds are challenging to observe in situ and difficult to detect by remote sensing techniques. Here we use Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite observations to show that thin mid-level clouds (TMLCs) are ubiquitous in the tropics. Supported by high-resolution regional model simulations, we find that TMLCs are formed by detrainment from convective clouds near the zero-degree isotherm. Calculations using a radiative transfer model indicate that tropical TMLCs have a cooling effect on climate that could be as large in magnitude as the warming effect of cirrus. We conclude that more effort has to be made to understand TMLCs, as their influence on cloud feedbacks, heat and moisture transport, and climate sensitivity could be substantial