TADPOLE Challenge: Accurate Alzheimer's disease prediction through crowdsourced forecasting of future data

The TADPOLE Challenge compares the performance of algorithms at predicting the future evolution of individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. TADPOLE Challenge participants train their models and algorithms on historical data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study. Participants are then required to make forecasts of three key outcomes for ADNI-3 rollover participants: clinical diagnosis, ADAS-Cog 13, and total volume of the ventricles -- which are then compared with future measurements. Strong points of the challenge are that the test data did not exist at the time of forecasting (it was acquired afterwards), and that it focuses on the challenging problem of cohort selection for clinical trials by identifying fast progressors. The submission phase of TADPOLE was open until 15 November 2017; since then data has been acquired until April 2019 from 219 subjects with 223 clinical visits and 150 Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans, which was used for the evaluation of the participants' predictions. Thirty-three teams participated with a total of 92 submissions. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For diagnosis prediction, the best forecast (team Frog), which was based on gradient boosting, obtained a multiclass area under the receiver-operating curve (MAUC) of 0.931, while for ventricle prediction the best forecast (team EMC1), which was based on disease progression modelling and spline regression, obtained mean absolute error of 0.41% of total intracranial volume (ICV). For ADAS-Cog 13, no forecast was considerably better than the benchmark mixed effects model (BenchmarkME), provided to participants before the submission deadline. Further analysis can help understand which input features and algorithms are most suitable for Alzheimer's disease prediction and for aiding patient stratification in clinical trials.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, 4 tables. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1805.0390

DNA-based Self-Assembly of Chiral Plasmonic Nanostructures with Tailored Optical Response

Surface plasmon resonances generated in metallic nanostructures can be utilized to tailor electromagnetic fields. The precise spatial arrangement of such structures can result in surprising optical properties that are not found in any naturally occurring material. Here, the designed activity emerges from collective effects of singular components equipped with limited individual functionality. Top-down fabrication of plasmonic materials with a predesigned optical response in the visible range by conventional lithographic methods has remained challenging due to their limited resolution, the complexity of scaling, and the difficulty to extend these techniques to three-dimensional architectures. Molecular self-assembly provides an alternative route to create such materials which is not bound by the above limitations. We demonstrate how the DNA origami method can be used to produce plasmonic materials with a tailored optical response at visible wavelengths. Harnessing the assembly power of 3D DNA origami, we arranged metal nanoparticles with a spatial accuracy of 2 nm into nanoscale helices. The helical structures assemble in solution in a massively parallel fashion and with near quantitative yields. As a designed optical response, we generated giant circular dichroism and optical rotary dispersion in the visible range that originates from the collective plasmon-plasmon interactions within the nanohelices. We also show that the optical response can be tuned through the visible spectrum by changing the composition of the metal nanoparticles. The observed effects are independent of the direction of the incident light and can be switched by design between left- and right-handed orientation. Our work demonstrates the production of complex bulk materials from precisely designed nanoscopic assemblies and highlights the potential of DNA self-assembly for the fabrication of plasmonic nanostructures.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Minding impacting events in a model of stochastic variance

We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation exhibiting a clustering profile. Specifically, inspired by the fact that in a variety of systems impacting events are hardly forgot, we split the process into two different regimes: a first one for regular periods where the average volatility of the fluctuations within a certain period of time is below a certain threshold and another one when the local standard deviation outnumbers it. In the former situation we use standard rules for heteroscedastic processes whereas in the latter case the system starts recalling past values that surpassed the threshold. Our results show that for appropriate parameter values the model is able to provide fat tailed probability density functions and strong persistence of the instantaneous variance characterised by large values of the Hurst exponent is greater than 0.8, which are ubiquitous features in complex systems.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. To published in PLoS on

First enantioseparation and circular dichroism spectra of Au38 clusters protected by achiral ligands

Bestowing chirality to metals is central in fields such as heterogeneous catalysis and modern optics. Although the bulk phase of metals is symmetric, their surfaces can become chiral through adsorption of molecules. Interestingly, even achiral molecules can lead to locally chiral, though globally racemic, surfaces. A similar situation can be obtained for metal particles or clusters. Here we report the first separation of the enantiomers of a gold cluster protected by achiral thiolates, Au38(SCH2CH2Ph)24, achieved by chiral high-performance liquid chromatography. The chirality of the nanocluster arises from the chiral arrangement of the thiolates on its surface, forming 'staple motifs'. The enantiomers show mirror-image circular dichroism responses and large anisotropy factors of up to 4×10−3. Comparison with reported circular dichroism spectra of other Au38 clusters reveals that the influence of the ligand on the chiroptical properties is minor

Evolutionary and pulsational properties of white dwarf stars

Abridged. White dwarf stars are the final evolutionary stage of the vast majority of stars, including our Sun. The study of white dwarfs has potential applications to different fields of astrophysics. In particular, they can be used as independent reliable cosmic clocks, and can also provide valuable information about the fundamental parameters of a wide variety of stellar populations, like our Galaxy and open and globular clusters. In addition, the high densities and temperatures characterizing white dwarfs allow to use these stars as cosmic laboratories for studying physical processes under extreme conditions that cannot be achieved in terrestrial laboratories. They can be used to constrain fundamental properties of elementary particles such as axions and neutrinos, and to study problems related to the variation of fundamental constants. In this work, we review the essentials of the physics of white dwarf stars. Special emphasis is placed on the physical processes that lead to the formation of white dwarfs as well as on the different energy sources and processes responsible for chemical abundance changes that occur along their evolution. Moreover, in the course of their lives, white dwarfs cross different pulsational instability strips. The existence of these instability strips provides astronomers with an unique opportunity to peer into their internal structure that would otherwise remain hidden from observers. We will show that this allows to measure with unprecedented precision the stellar masses and to infer their envelope thicknesses, to probe the core chemical stratification, and to detect rotation rates and magnetic fields. Consequently, in this work, we also review the pulsational properties of white dwarfs and the most recent applications of white dwarf asteroseismology.Comment: 85 pages, 28 figures. To be published in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Revie

Ostriches Sleep like Platypuses

Mammals and birds engage in two distinct states of sleep, slow wave sleep (SWS) and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. SWS is characterized by slow, high amplitude brain waves, while REM sleep is characterized by fast, low amplitude waves, known as activation, occurring with rapid eye movements and reduced muscle tone. However, monotremes (platypuses and echidnas), the most basal (or ‘ancient’) group of living mammals, show only a single sleep state that combines elements of SWS and REM sleep, suggesting that these states became temporally segregated in the common ancestor to marsupial and eutherian mammals. Whether sleep in basal birds resembles that of monotremes or other mammals and birds is unknown. Here, we provide the first description of brain activity during sleep in ostriches (Struthio camelus), a member of the most basal group of living birds. We found that the brain activity of sleeping ostriches is unique. Episodes of REM sleep were delineated by rapid eye movements, reduced muscle tone, and head movements, similar to those observed in other birds and mammals engaged in REM sleep; however, during REM sleep in ostriches, forebrain activity would flip between REM sleep-like activation and SWS-like slow waves, the latter reminiscent of sleep in the platypus. Moreover, the amount of REM sleep in ostriches is greater than in any other bird, just as in platypuses, which have more REM sleep than other mammals. These findings reveal a recurring sequence of steps in the evolution of sleep in which SWS and REM sleep arose from a single heterogeneous state that became temporally segregated into two distinct states. This common trajectory suggests that forebrain activation during REM sleep is an evolutionarily new feature, presumably involved in performing new sleep functions not found in more basal animals

Modular hybrid total hip arthroplasty. Experimental study in dogs

Background: This prospective experimental study evaluated the surgical procedure and results of modular hybrid total hip arthroplasty in dogs.Methods: Ten skeletally mature healthy mongrel dogs with weights varying between 19 and 27 kg were used. Cemented modular femoral stems and uncemented porous-coated acetabular cups were employed. Clinical and radiographic evaluations were performed before surgery and at 30, 60, 90, 120, 180 and 360 days post-operation.Results: Excellent weight bearing was noticed in the operated limb in seven dogs. Dislocation followed by loosening of the prosthesis was noticed in two dogs, which were therefore properly treated with a femoral head osteotomy. Femoral fracture occurred in one dog, which was promptly treated with full implant removal and femoral osteosynthesis.Conclusions: The canine modular hybrid total hip arthroplasty provided excellent functionality of the operated limb

Risk factors for hepatitis C virus infection among blood donors in southern Brazil: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, it is estimated that between 2.5 and 4.9% of the general population present anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies, which corresponds to as many as 3.9 to 7.6 million chronic carriers. Chronic liver disease is associated with HCV infection in 20% to 58% of the Brazilian patients. The objective of this case-control study was to investigate the risk factors for presence of anti-HCV antibody in blood donors in southern Brazil. METHODS: One hundred and seventy eight blood donors with two positive ELISA results for anti-HCV were cases, and 356 controls tested negative. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data concerning demographic and socioeconomic aspects, history of previous hepatitis infection, social and sexual behaviors, and number of donations. Variables were grouped into sets of hierarchical categories. Cases and controls were compared using logistic regression, odds ratios, and 95% confidence intervals. The statistical significance of the associations was assessed through likelihood ratio tests based on a P value < 0.05. RESULTS: The prevalence of anti-HCV among blood donors was 1.1%. Most of the donors were white and males. In the multivariate analysis, independent predictors of anti-HCV positivity were: intravenous drug use, blood transfusion >10 years earlier, having had two to four sexually transmitted diseases, incarceration, tattooing, sex with a hepatitis B or C virus carrier or with intravenous drug users. CONCLUSION: Intravenous drug use, blood transfusion, and tattooing were the main risk factors for anti-HCV positivity among blood donors from southern Brazil, but sexual HCV transmission should also be considered