Markov chain aggregation and its application to rule-based modelling

Rule-based modelling allows to represent molecular interactions in a compact and natural way. The underlying molecular dynamics, by the laws of stochastic chemical kinetics, behaves as a continuous-time Markov chain. However, this Markov chain enumerates all possible reaction mixtures, rendering the analysis of the chain computationally demanding and often prohibitive in practice. We here describe how it is possible to efficiently find a smaller, aggregate chain, which preserves certain properties of the original one. Formal methods and lumpability notions are used to define algorithms for automated and efficient construction of such smaller chains (without ever constructing the original ones). We here illustrate the method on an example and we discuss the applicability of the method in the context of modelling large signalling pathways

Combining estimates of interest in prognostic modelling studies after multiple imputation: current practice and guidelines

Background: Multiple imputation (MI) provides an effective approach to handle missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies, as it can properly account for the missing data uncertainty. The multiply imputed datasets are each analysed using standard prognostic modelling techniques to obtain the estimates of interest. The estimates from each imputed dataset are then combined into one overall estimate and variance, incorporating both the within and between imputation variability. Rubin's rules for combining these multiply imputed estimates are based on asymptotic theory. The resulting combined estimates may be more accurate if the posterior distribution of the population parameter of interest is better approximated by the normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be appropriate for all the parameters of interest when analysing prognostic modelling studies, such as predicted survival probabilities and model performance measures. Methods: Guidelines for combining the estimates of interest when analysing prognostic modelling studies are provided. A literature review is performed to identify current practice for combining such estimates in prognostic modelling studies. Results: Methods for combining all reported estimates after MI were not well reported in the current literature. Rubin's rules without applying any transformations were the standard approach used, when any method was stated. Conclusion: The proposed simple guidelines for combining estimates after MI may lead to a wider and more appropriate use of MI in future prognostic modelling studies

How to halt the global decline of lands

The assessment of land degradation and restoration by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services shows that land degradation across the globe is a wide and severe issue and is showing no signs of slowing down. This trend must be halted and reversed

Methane Source Attribution in the UK Using Multi‐Year Records of CH4 and δ13C

Isotopic measurements of atmospheric methane are valuable for the verification of bottom-up atmospheric emissions inventories. The balance of sources in emissions inventories must be consistent with the δ13C-CH4 isotopic record in the air. Long-term records of both methane mole fraction and δ13C from five sites across the UK are presented, showing post-2007 growth in CH4 and negative trend in δ13C, consistent with global background sites. Miller-Tans analyses of atmospheric measurements identified that the δ13C signature of the methane source mix varied between −50.1 and −56.1‰, with less depleted δ13C signatures at sites receiving air from urban areas, consistent with an increased proportion of thermogenic sources. Isotopic signatures calculated for all sites are more enriched than those expected from the bottom-up emissions inventory, suggesting that inventories for the UK either underestimate contributions of thermogenic/pyrogenic emissions or overestimate biogenic sources

From DPSIR the DAPSI(W)R(M) Emerges… a Butterfly – ‘protecting the natural stuff and delivering the human stuff’

The complexity of interactions and feedbacks between human activities and ecosystems can make the analysis of such social-ecological systems intractable. In order to provide a common means to understand and analyse the links between social and ecological process within these systems, a range of analytical frameworks have been developed and adopted. Following decades of practical experience in implementation, the Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) conceptual framework has been adapted and re-developed to become the D(A)PSI(W)R(M). This paper describes in detail the D(A)PSI(W)R(M) and its development from the original DPSIR conceptual frame. Despite its diverse application and demonstrated utility, a number of inherent shortcomings are identified. In particular the DPSIR model family tend to be best suited to individual environmental pressures and human activities and their resulting environmental problems, having a limited focus on the supply and demand of benefits from nature. We present a derived framework, the “Butterfly”, a more holistic approach designed to expand the concept. The “Butterfly” model, moves away from the centralised accounting framework approach while more-fully incorporating the complexity of social and ecological systems, and the supply and demand of ecosystem services, which are central to human-environment interactions

Aging Skin: Nourishing from the Inside Out, Effects of Good Versus Poor Nitrogen Intake on Skin Health and Healing

Skin is the outermost defense organ which protects us from the environment, constituting around 8 % of an adult’s body weight. Healthy skin contains one-eighth of the body’s total proteins. The balance of turnover and synthesis of skin proteins is primarily dependent on the availability of sufficient nitrogen-containing substrates, namely, amino acids, essential for protein metabolism in any other tissue and body organs. The turnover of skin proteins has been shown to be rapid, and the mobilization of amino acids at the expense of skin proteins is relevant in experimental models of protein malnutrition. As a result, alterations in nutritional status should be suspected, diagnosed, and eventually treated for any skin lesions. Protein malnutrition has a dramatic prevalence in patients aged >70 or more, independent of the reason for hospitalization. The quality of nutrition and content of essential amino acids are strictly connected to skin health and integrity of its protein components. Collagen fiber deposition is highly and rapidly influenced by alterations in the essential to nonessential amino acid ratios. The most relevant nutritional factor of skin health is the prevalence of essential amino acids

High HIV Prevalence Among Men Who have Sex with Men in Soweto, South Africa: Results from the Soweto Men’s Study

The Soweto Men’s Study assessed HIV prevalence and associated risk factors among MSM in Soweto, South Africa. Using respondent driven sampling (RDS) recruitment methods, we recruited 378 MSM (including 15 seeds) over 30 weeks in 2008. All results were adjusted for RDS sampling design. Overall HIV prevalence was estimated at 13.2% (95% confidence interval 12.4–13.9%), with 33.9% among gay-identified men, 6.4% among bisexual-identified men, and 10.1% among straight-identified MSM. In multivariable analysis, HIV infection was associated with being older than 25 (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 3.8, 95% CI 3.2–4.6), gay self-identification (AOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.8–3.0), monthly income less than ZAR500 (AOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2–1.7), purchasing alcohol or drugs in exchange for sex with another man (AOR 3.9, 95% CI 3.2–4.7), reporting any URAI (AOR 4.4, 95% CI 3.5–5.7), reporting between six and nine partners in the prior 6 months (AOR 5.7, 95% CI 4.0–8.2), circumcision, (AOR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1–0.2), a regular female partner (AOR 0.2, 95% CI 0.2–0.3), smoking marijuana in the last 6 months (AOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5–0.8), unprotected vaginal intercourse in the last 6 months (AOR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4–0.6), and STI symptoms in the last year (AOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5–0.8). The results of the Soweto Men’s Study confirm that MSM are at high risk for HIV infection, with gay men at highest risk. HIV prevention and treatment for MSM are urgently needed