The importance of changing climatic variability for tropical wildlife population growth rates

Oral Session: Global change biologyMuch interest in the population impact of climate change has focused on the widespread increases in mean temperature, but little attention has been paid to the less homogeneous and less predictable changes in temperature variability. Well-established demographic theories have long pointed to a potential impact of environmental variability on population growth rates, but these have rarely been tested in practice, and the limited evidence available has suggested only minor effects. Using long-term data on tropical bird populations, we demonstrate that the prevailing levels of temperature variability are large enough to have a major impact; reducing population growth rates by up to half ...postprin

Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997–2003

BACKGROUND: The objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental variables and disease dynamics. METHODS: The study was carried out in Karuzi, a province in the Burundi highlands, using time series of monthly notifications of malaria cases from local health facilities, data from rain and temperature records, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, a model showing the relation between monthly notifications of malaria cases and the environmental variables was developed. RESULTS: The best forecasting model (R2adj = 82%, p < 0.0001 and 93% forecasting accuracy in the range +/- 4 cases per 100 inhabitants) included the NDVI, mean maximum temperature, rainfall and number of malaria cases in the preceding month. CONCLUSION: This model is a simple and useful tool for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence rate in the study area

Coherent control of light through laser written photonic lanterns

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via the link in this recordWe demonstrate coherent control of light through bespoke laser written photonic lanterns. This enables imaging in a variety of new situations, with potential applications to micro-endoscopy, chip-based LIDAR, and microfluidic imaging.Chinese Scholarship CouncilEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)Royal Academy of Engineering,European Research Council (ERC

Variations in entomological indices in relation to weather patterns and malaria incidence in East African highlands: implications for epidemic prevention and control

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria epidemics remain a significant public health issue in the East African highlands. The aim of this study was to monitor temporal variations in vector densities in relation to changes in meteorological factors and malaria incidence at four highland sites in Kenya and Uganda and to evaluate the implications of these relationships for epidemic prediction and control.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Mosquitoes were collected weekly over a period of 47 months while meteorological variables and morbidity data were monitored concurrently. Mixed-effects Poisson regression was used to study the temporal associations of meteorological variables to vector densities and of the latter to incidence rates of <it>Plasmodium falciparum</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>Anopheles gambiae </it>s.s. was the predominant vector followed by <it>Anopheles arabiensis</it>. <it>Anopheles funestus </it>was also found in low densities. Vector densities remained low even during periods of malaria outbreaks. Average temperature in previous month and rainfall in previous two months had a quadratic and linear relationship with <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. density, respectively. A significant statistical interaction was also observed between average temperature and rainfall in the previous month. Increases in densities of this vector in previous two months showed a linear relationship with increased malaria incidence.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although epidemics in highlands often appear to follow abnormal weather patterns, interactions between meteorological, entomological and morbidity variables are complex and need to be modelled mathematically to better elucidate the system. This study showed that routine entomological surveillance is not feasible for epidemic monitoring or prediction in areas with low endemicity. However, information on unusual increases in temperature and rainfall should be used to initiate rapid vector surveys to assess transmission risk.</p

Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province

Informing investment to reduce inequalities: a modelling approach

Background: Reducing health inequalities is an important policy objective but there is limited quantitative information about the impact of specific interventions. Objectives: To provide estimates of the impact of a range of interventions on health and health inequalities. Materials and methods: Literature reviews were conducted to identify the best evidence linking interventions to mortality and hospital admissions. We examined interventions across the determinants of health: a ‘living wage’; changes to benefits, taxation and employment; active travel; tobacco taxation; smoking cessation, alcohol brief interventions, and weight management services. A model was developed to estimate mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in intervention and comparison populations over a 20-year time period following interventions delivered only in the first year. We estimated changes in inequalities using the relative index of inequality (RII). Results: Introduction of a ‘living wage’ generated the largest beneficial health impact, with modest reductions in health inequalities. Benefits increases had modest positive impacts on health and health inequalities. Income tax increases had negative impacts on population health but reduced inequalities, while council tax increases worsened both health and health inequalities. Active travel increases had minimally positive effects on population health but widened health inequalities. Increases in employment reduced inequalities only when targeted to the most deprived groups. Tobacco taxation had modestly positive impacts on health but little impact on health inequalities. Alcohol brief interventions had modestly positive impacts on health and health inequalities only when strongly socially targeted, while smoking cessation and weight-reduction programmes had minimal impacts on health and health inequalities even when socially targeted. Conclusions: Interventions have markedly different effects on mortality, hospitalisations and inequalities. The most effective (and likely cost-effective) interventions for reducing inequalities were regulatory and tax options. Interventions focused on individual agency were much less likely to impact on inequalities, even when targeted at the most deprived communities

Low referral completion of rapid diagnostic test-negative patients in community-based treatment of malaria in Sierra Leone

ABSTRACT