Numerical groundwater flow modeling under future climate change in the Central Rift Valley Lakes Basin; Ethiopia

\ua9 2024 The AuthorsStudy area: Katar and Meki subbasins, Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia.Study focus: This research was carried out to characterized the recharge mechanism and quantify the steady-state groundwater balance and its sensitivity to future climate change. A groundwater simulation model was constructed and calibrated using a hydro-geo spatial dataset. Three regional climate models were used to assess the potential impact of changes in future precipitation on the recharge rate and groundwater balance components.New Hydrogeological Insight: Groundwater potential assessment depends on accurate estimation of the recharge rate. Precipitation contributed 11.95% and 11.96% to groundwater recharge in the Katar and Meki subbasins, respectively. The steady-state numerical groundwater model was calibrated and the model performed in the ranges of R2: 0.95–0.99; RMSE: 16.17–25.18; and MAE: 12.69–24.55, demonstrating \u27excellent\u27 model performance. In particular, the model exhibited high sensitivity to changes in the recharge rate and horizontal hydraulic conductivity. Future change in precipitation caused a reduction in groundwater potential in the range of 6.24–40.32% by the 2040 s and 2070 s, respectively, in the Katar subbasin. Likewise, the Meki Subbasin will experience a reduction in groundwater potential in the range of 0.29–37.17% by the 2040 s and 2070 s, respectively. These results emphasize how crucial it is for future water resource development initiatives to take into account climate variability for sustainable groundwater development

Detecting and staging podoconiosis cases in North West Cameroon: positive predictive value of clinical screening of patients by community health workers and researchers

Background The suitability of using clinical assessment to identify patients with podoconiosis in endemic communities has previously been demonstrated. In this study, we explored the feasibility and accuracy of using Community Health Implementers (CHIs) for the large scale clinical screening of the population for podoconiosis in North-west Cameroon. Methods Before a regional podoconiosis mapping, 193 CHIs and 50 health personnel selected from 6 health districts were trained in the clinical diagnosis of the disease. After training, CHIs undertook community screening for podoconiosis patients under health personnel supervision. Identified cases were later re-examined by a research team with experience in the clinical identification of podoconiosis. Results Cases were identified by CHIs with an overall positive predictive value (PPV) of 48.5% [34.1–70%]. They were more accurate in detecting advanced stages of the disease compared to early stages; OR 2.07, 95% CI = 1.15–3.73, p = 0.015 for all advanced stages). Accuracy of detecting cases showed statistically significant differences among health districts (χ2 = 25.30, p = 0.0001). Conclusion Podoconiosis being a stigmatized disease, the use of CHIs who are familiar to the community appears appropriate for identifying cases through clinical diagnosis. However, to improve their effectiveness and accuracy, more training, supervision and support are required. More emphasis must be given in identifying early clinical stages and in health districts with relatively lower PPVs

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category. Findings: In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000–277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11–2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400–145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947–1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6–8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8–3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1–19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7–14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2–14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5–81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4–78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1–67·3]). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations

Magnitude and patterns of injuries among patients in Gondar University Hospital, northwest Ethiopia: an institutional-based study

Tadesse Awoke Ayele,1 Berihun Megabiaw Zeleke,1 Gizachew Assefa Tessema,2 Melkitu Fentie Melak3 1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia; 2Department of Reproductive Health, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia; 3Department of Human Nutrition, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that injuries constitute 16% of the global burden of disease. This translates into 5.8 million injury-related deaths annually, worldwide. The aim of this study was to determine the magnitude and pattern of injury in the Gondar University Hospital (GUH) in the year 2013. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted in GUH from March to April 2013. All charts of injured patients who visited the hospital from January 1 to December 30, 2012 were included in this study. A total of 616 patients’ charts were included in this study. Data were entered and cleaned using Epi Info and exported to Stata version 11 for analysis. Binary logistic regression was used, and odds ratios with 95% confidence interval were reported. Results: During the study period, a total of 84,254 patients visited the hospital, of whom 16,611 (19.7%) were surgical cases. Injury accounted for 25% of surgical emergency cases. Patients were predominantly young males (82%). Three in five (59.4%) of the injured patients were within the age range of 15–30 years. Approximately one in three, 187 (32.2%), and one in four, 141 (24.3%), of those injured patients were students and farmers, respectively. The injury mechanism for nearly half (48.9%) of students was assault, followed by 45.2% of road traffic accidents. Intentional injuries occurred among 291 (47.24%) cases, of whom 84.5% were males. Fracture (22.9%) and head injury (17.2%) were the leading outcomes of injuries. Severe injuries accounted for ~13% of all cases. Residence, physical nature of injury and place of work were found to be significantly associated with the outcome of injury. Conclusion and recommendation: The magnitude of injury in this hospital was found to be high when compared with other similar settings. Assault and road traffic accidents were the two common mechanisms of injury. Appropriate prevention strategies should be designed and implemented against assault and road traffic accidents. Keywords: road traffic accident, surgical department, University Hospital, Ethiopi

Determinants of skilled attendance for delivery in Northwest Ethiopia: a community based nested case control study

BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal calls for a reduction of maternal mortality ratio by 75% between 1990 and 2015. A key indicator to measure this goal is the proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel. The maternal mortality ratio of Ethiopia is 676 deaths per 100,000 live births. Skilled birth attendance is correlated with lower maternal mortality rates globally and in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the proportion of births with a skilled attendant is only 10% in Ethiopia. Therefore identifying the determinants of skilled attendance for delivery is a priority area to give policy recommendations. METHODS: A community based nested case control study was conducted from October 2009 - August 2011 at the University of Gondar health and demographic surveillance systems site located at Dabat district, Northwest Ethiopia. Data were obtained from the infant mortality prospective follow up study conducted to identify the determinants of infant survival. A pretested and structured questionnaire via interview was used to collect data on the different variables. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the determinants of skilled birth attendance. Strength of the association was assessed using odds ratio with 95% CI. RESULTS: A total of 1065 mothers (213 cases and 852 controls) were included in the analysis. Among the cases, 166 (77.9%) were from urban areas. More than half (54%) of the cases have secondary and above level of education. Secondary and above level of education [AOR (95%CI) = 2.8 (1.29, 3.68)] and urban residence [AOR (95%CI) = 8.8 (5.32, 14.46)] were associated with skilled attendance for delivery. Similarly, women who had ANC during their pregnancy four or more times [AOR (95%CI) = 2.8 (1.56, 4.98)] and who own TV [AOR (95%CI) = 2.5 (1.32, 4.76)] were more likely to deliver with the assistance of a skilled attendant. CONCLUSIONS: Women's education, place of residence, frequency of antenatal care visit and ever use of family planning were found to be determinants of skilled birth attendance. Encouraging women to complete at least secondary education and to have antenatal care frequently are important to increase skilled attendance during delivery

Joint Modeling of Incidence of Unfavorable Outcomes and Change in Viral Load Over Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients on Second-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy, in Selected Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Hamdi Fekredin Zakaria,1 Tadesse Awoke Ayele,2 Sewnet Adem Kebede,2 Mesfin Menza Jaldo,3 Bereket Abrham Lajore4 1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia; 2Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia; 3Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wachemo University, Hossana, Ethiopia; 4Department of Family Health, Hossana Health Science College, Hossana, EthiopiaCorrespondence: Hamdi Fekredin Zakaria, Email [email protected]: In Ethiopia, second-line anti-retroviral therapy (ART) for HIV/AIDS patients was started some years ago; however, few studies have reported the unfavorable outcomes of second-line ART. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of unfavorable outcomes and their association with change in viral load among adult HIV/AIDS patients on second-line treatment at selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.Methods: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted at selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on 421 HIV/AIDS patients on second-line ART from 2016 to 2021. Cox proportional hazard models with a linear mixed effect model were jointly modeled using the JM package of R software with time-dependent lagged parameterizations, and a 95% confidence interval was used to select significant variables.Results: Overall, 89 HIV/AIDS patients developed unfavorable outcomes. The incidence density was 7.48/100 person-years (95% CI: 6.08, 9.2). Secondary and tertiary educational level (AHR=0.47, 95% CI: 0.25, 0.89, and AHR=0.27, 95% CI: 0.1, 0.72), CD4 count less than 100 cells/mm3 (AHR=2.15, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.83), poor adherence (AHR=3.59, 95% CI: 1.73, 7.49), and TB comorbidity (AHR=2.23, 95% CI: 1.21, 4.14) at the start of second-line ART were significant predictors of incidence of unfavorable outcome. Time-dependent lagged value viral load was significantly associated with the risk of unfavorable outcome (AHR=1.28, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.63).Conclusion: In the study area, the incidence of an unfavorable outcome of second-line ART was high. Secondary and tertiary educational level, CD4 count less than 100 cells/mm3, poor adherence, and TB comorbidity at the start of second-line ART were significant predictors of incidence of unfavorable outcomes. Thus, strengthening routine viral load measurement, increase patient adherence, intensive counseling, and strong TB screening are needed in the study setting.Keywords: second-line ART, viral load change, HIV/AIDS, joint modeling, Ethiopi