Bias in trials comparing paired continuous tests can cause researchers to choose the wrong screening modality

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To compare the diagnostic accuracy of two continuous screening tests, a common approach is to test the difference between the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. After study participants are screened with both screening tests, the disease status is determined as accurately as possible, either by an invasive, sensitive and specific secondary test, or by a less invasive, but less sensitive approach. For most participants, disease status is approximated through the less sensitive approach. The invasive test must be limited to the fraction of the participants whose results on either or both screening tests exceed a threshold of suspicion, or who develop signs and symptoms of the disease after the initial screening tests.</p> <p>The limitations of this study design lead to a bias in the ROC curves we call <it>paired screening trial bias</it>. This bias reflects the synergistic effects of inappropriate reference standard bias, differential verification bias, and partial verification bias. The absence of a gold reference standard leads to inappropriate reference standard bias. When different reference standards are used to ascertain disease status, it creates differential verification bias. When only suspicious screening test scores trigger a sensitive and specific secondary test, the result is a form of partial verification bias.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For paired screening tests with bivariate normally distributed scores, we give formulae and programs to quantify the effect of <it>paired screening trial bias </it>on a paired comparison of area under the curves. We fix the prevalence of disease, and the chance a diseased subject manifests signs and symptoms. We derive the formulas for true sensitivity and specificity, and those for the sensitivity and specificity observed by the study investigator.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The observed area under the ROC curves is quite different from the true area under the ROC curves. The typical direction of the bias is a strong inflation in sensitivity, paired with a concomitant slight deflation of specificity.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In paired trials of screening tests, when area under the ROC curve is used as the metric, bias may lead researchers to make the wrong decision as to which screening test is better.</p

Statistical methods to correct for verification bias in diagnostic studies are inadequate when there are few false negatives: a simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A common feature of diagnostic research is that results for a diagnostic gold standard are available primarily for patients who are positive for the test under investigation. Data from such studies are subject to what has been termed "verification bias". We evaluated statistical methods for verification bias correction when there are few false negatives.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A simulation study was conducted of a screening study subject to verification bias. We compared estimates of the area-under-the-curve (AUC) corrected for verification bias varying both the rate and mechanism of verification.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a single simulated data set, varying false negatives from 0 to 4 led to verification bias corrected AUCs ranging from 0.550 to 0.852. Excess variation associated with low numbers of false negatives was confirmed in simulation studies and by analyses of published studies that incorporated verification bias correction. The 2.5^th– 97.5^thcentile range constituted as much as 60% of the possible range of AUCs for some simulations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Screening programs are designed such that there are few false negatives. Standard statistical methods for verification bias correction are inadequate in this circumstance.</p

The Marker State Space (MSS) Method for Classifying Clinical Samples

The development of accurate clinical biomarkers has been challenging in part due to the diversity between patients and diseases. One approach to account for the diversity is to use multiple markers to classify patients, based on the concept that each individual marker contributes information from its respective subclass of patients. Here we present a new strategy for developing biomarker panels that accounts for completely distinct patient subclasses. Marker State Space (MSS) defines "marker states" based on all possible patterns of high and low values among a panel of markers. Each marker state is defined as either a case state or a control state, and a sample is classified as case or control based on the state it occupies. MSS was used to define multi-marker panels that were robust in cross validation and training-set/test-set analyses and that yielded similar classification accuracy to several other classification algorithms. A three-marker panel for discriminating pancreatic cancer patients from control subjects revealed subclasses of patients based on distinct marker states. MSS provides a straightforward approach for modeling highly divergent subclasses of patients, which may be adaptable for diverse applications. © 2013 Fallon et al

MicroRNA Expression-Based Model Indicates Event-Free Survival in Pediatric Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Purpose: Children with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) whose disease is refractory to standard induction chemotherapy therapy or who experience relapse after initial response have dismal outcomes. We sought to comprehensively profile pediatric AML microRNA (miRNA) samples to identify dysregulated genes and assess the utility of miRNAs for improved outcome prediction. // Patients and Methods: To identify miRNA biomarkers that are associated with treatment failure, we performed a comprehensive sequence-based characterization of the pediatric AML miRNA landscape. miRNA sequencing was performed on 1,362 samples—1,303 primary, 22 refractory, and 37 relapse samples. One hundred sixty-four matched samples—127 primary and 37 relapse samples—were analyzed by using RNA sequencing. // Results: By using penalized lasso Cox proportional hazards regression, we identified 36 miRNAs the expression levels at diagnosis of which were highly associated with event-free survival. Combined expression of the 36 miRNAs was used to create a novel miRNA-based risk classification scheme (AMLmiR36). This new miRNA-based risk classifier identifies those patients who are at high risk (hazard ratio, 2.830; P ≤ .001) or low risk (hazard ratio, 0.323; P ≤ .001) of experiencing treatment failure, independent of conventional karyotype or mutation status. The performance of AMLmiR36 was independently assessed by using 878 patients from two different clinical trials (AAML0531 and AAML1031). Our analysis also revealed that miR-106a-363 was abundantly expressed in relapse and refractory samples, and several candidate targets of miR-106a-5p were involved in oxidative phosphorylation, a process that is suppressed in treatment-resistant leukemic cells. // Conclusion: To assess the utility of miRNAs for outcome prediction in patients with pediatric AML, we designed and validated a miRNA-based risk classification scheme. We also hypothesized that the abundant expression of miR-106a could increase treatment resistance via modulation of genes that are involved in oxidative phosphorylation

Etiologic Diagnosis of Lower Respiratory Tract Bacterial Infections Using Sputum Samples and Quantitative Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification

Etiologic diagnoses of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) have been relying primarily on bacterial cultures that often fail to return useful results in time. Although DNA-based assays are more sensitive than bacterial cultures in detecting pathogens, the molecular results are often inconsistent and challenged by doubts on false positives, such as those due to system- and environment-derived contaminations. Here we report a nationwide cohort study on 2986 suspected LRTI patients across P. R. China. We compared the performance of a DNA-based assay qLAMP (quantitative Loop-mediated isothermal AMPlification) with that of standard bacterial cultures in detecting a panel of eight common respiratory bacterial pathogens from sputum samples. Our qLAMP assay detects the panel of pathogens in 1047(69.28%) patients from 1533 qualified patients at the end. We found that the bacterial titer quantified based on qLAMP is a predictor of probability that the bacterium in the sample can be detected in culture assay. The relatedness of the two assays fits a logistic regression curve. We used a piecewise linear function to define breakpoints where latent pathogen abruptly change its competitive relationship with others in the panel. These breakpoints, where pathogens start to propagate abnormally, are used as cutoffs to eliminate the influence of contaminations from normal flora. With help of the cutoffs derived from statistical analysis, we are able to identify causative pathogens in 750 (48.92%) patients from qualified patients. In conclusion, qLAMP is a reliable method in quantifying bacterial titer. Despite the fact that there are always latent bacteria contaminated in sputum samples, we can identify causative pathogens based on cutoffs derived from statistical analysis of competitive relationship

Ki-67 as prognostic marker in early breast cancer: a meta-analysis of published studies involving 12 155 patients

The Ki-67 antigen is used to evaluate the proliferative activity of breast cancer (BC); however, Ki-67's role as a prognostic marker in BC is still undefined. In order to better define the prognostic value of Ki-67/MIB-1, we performed a meta-analysis of studies that evaluated the impact of Ki-67/MIB-1 on disease-free survival (DFS) and/or on overall survival (OS) in early BC. Sixty-eight studies were identified and 46 studies including 12 155 patients were evaluable for our meta-analysis; 38 studies were evaluable for the aggregation of results for DFS, and 35 studies for OS. Patients were considered to present positive tumours for the expression of Ki-67/MIB-1 according to the cut-off points defined by the authors. Ki-67/MIB-1 positivity is associated with higher probability of relapse in all patients (HR=1.93 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.74–2.14); P<0.001), in node-negative patients (HR=2.31 (95% CI: 1.83–2.92); P<0.001) and in node-positive patients (HR=1.59 (95% CI: 1.35–1.87); P<0.001). Furthermore, Ki-67/MIB-1 positivity is associated with worse survival in all patients (HR=1.95 (95% CI: 1.70–2.24; P<0.001)), node-negative patients (HR=2.54 (95% CI: 1.65–3.91); P<0.001) and node-positive patients (HR=2.33 (95% CI: 1.83–2.95); P<0.001). Our meta-analysis suggests that Ki-67/MIB-1 positivity confers a higher risk of relapse and a worse survival in patients with early BC

Ancestral diversity improves discovery and fine-mapping of genetic loci for anthropometric traits — The Hispanic/Latino Anthropometry Consortium

Hispanic/Latinos have been underrepresented in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for anthropometric traits despite their notable anthropometric variability, ancestry proportions, and high burden of growth stunting and overweight/obesity. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed densely imputed genetic data in a sample of Hispanic/Latino adults to identify and fine-map genetic variants associated with body mass index (BMI), height, and BMI-adjusted waist-to-hip ratio (WHRadjBMI). We conducted a GWAS of 18 studies/consortia as part of the Hispanic/Latino Anthropometry (HISLA) Consortium (stage 1, n = 59,771) and generalized our findings in 9 additional studies (stage 2, n = 10,538). We conducted a trans-ancestral GWAS with summary statistics from HISLA stage 1 and existing consortia of European and African ancestries. In our HISLA stage 1 + 2 analyses, we discovered one BMI locus, as well as two BMI signals and another height signal each within established anthropometric loci. In our trans-ancestral meta-analysis, we discovered three BMI loci, one height locus, and one WHRadjBMI locus. We also identified 3 secondary signals for BMI, 28 for height, and 2 for WHRadjBMI in established loci. We show that 336 known BMI, 1,177 known height, and 143 known WHRadjBMI (combined) SNPs demonstrated suggestive transferability (nominal significance and effect estimate directional consistency) in Hispanic/Latino adults. Of these, 36 BMI, 124 height, and 11 WHRadjBMI SNPs were significant after trait-specific Bonferroni correction. Trans-ancestral meta-analysis of the three ancestries showed a small-to-moderate impact of uncorrected population stratification on the resulting effect size estimates. Our findings demonstrate that future studies may also benefit from leveraging diverse ancestries and differences in linkage disequilibrium patterns to discover novel loci and additional signals with less residual population stratification

Unique T Cells with Unconventional Cytokine Profiles Induced in the Livers of Mice during Schistosoma mansoni Infection

During infection with Schistosoma , serious hepatic disorders are induced in the host. The liver possesses unique immune systems composed of specialized cells that differ from those of other immune competent organs or tissues. Host immune responses change dramatically during Schistosoma mansoni infection; in the early phase, Th1-related responses are induced, whereas during the late phase Th2 reactions dominate. Here, we describe unique T cell populations induced in the liver of mice during the period between Th1- and Th2-phases, which we term the transition phase. During this phase, varieties of immune cells including T lymphocytes increase in the liver. Subsets of CD4+ T cells exhibit unique cytokine production profiles, simultaneously producing both IFN-γ and IL-13 or both IFN-γ and IL-4. Furthermore, cells triply positive for IFN-γ, IL-13 and IL-4 also expand in the S. mansoni-infected liver. The induction of these unique cell populations does not occur in the spleen, indicating it is a phenomenon specific to the liver. In single hepatic CD4+ T cells showing the unique cytokine profiles, both T-bet and GATA-3 are expressed. Thus, our studies show that S. mansoni infection triggers the induction of hepatic T cell subsets with unique cytokine profiles