Reconstructing the 3-D Trajectories of CMEs in the Inner Heliosphere

A method for the full three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction of the trajectories of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) data is presented. Four CMEs that were simultaneously observed by the inner and outer coronagraphs (COR1 and 2) of the Ahead and Behind STEREO satellites were analysed. These observations were used to derive CME trajectories in 3-D out to ~15Rsun. The reconstructions using COR1/2 data support a radial propagation model. Assuming pseudo-radial propagation at large distances from the Sun (15-240Rsun), the CME positions were extrapolated into the Heliospheric Imager (HI) field-of-view. We estimated the CME velocities in the different fields-of-view. It was found that CMEs slower than the solar wind were accelerated, while CMEs faster than the solar wind were decelerated, with both tending to the solar wind velocity.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 1 appendi

Using an Ellipsoid Model to Track and Predict the Evolution and Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

We present a method for tracking and predicting the propagation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using the imagers on the STEREO and SOHO satellites. By empirically modeling the material between the inner core and leading edge of a CME as an expanding, outward propagating ellipsoid, we track its evolution in three-dimensional space. Though more complex empirical CME models have been developed, we examine the accuracy of this relatively simple geometric model, which incorporates relatively few physical assumptions, including i) a constant propagation angle and ii) an azimuthally symmetric structure. Testing our ellipsoid model developed herein on three separate CMEs, we find that it is an effective tool for predicting the arrival of density enhancements and the duration of each event near 1 AU. For each CME studied, the trends in the trajectory, as well as the radial and transverse expansion are studied from 0 to ~.3 AU to create predictions at 1 AU with an average accuracy of 2.9 hours.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figure

Effect of Solar Wind Drag on the Determination of the Properties of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Images

The Fixed-\Phi (F\Phi) and Harmonic Mean (HM) fitting methods are two methods to determine the average direction and velocity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from time-elongation tracks produced by Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), such as the HIs onboard the STEREO spacecraft. Both methods assume a constant velocity in their descriptions of the time-elongation profiles of CMEs, which are used to fit the observed time-elongation data. Here, we analyze the effect of aerodynamic drag on CMEs propagating through interplanetary space, and how this drag affects the result of the F\Phi and HM fitting methods. A simple drag model is used to analytically construct time-elongation profiles which are then fitted with the two methods. It is found that higher angles and velocities give rise to greater error in both methods, reaching errors in the direction of propagation of up to 15 deg and 30 deg for the F\Phi and HM fitting methods, respectively. This is due to the physical accelerations of the CMEs being interpreted as geometrical accelerations by the fitting methods. Because of the geometrical definition of the HM fitting method, it is affected by the acceleration more greatly than the F\Phi fitting method. Overall, we find that both techniques overestimate the initial (and final) velocity and direction for fast CMEs propagating beyond 90 deg from the Sun-spacecraft line, meaning that arrival times at 1 AU would be predicted early (by up to 12 hours). We also find that the direction and arrival time of a wide and decelerating CME can be better reproduced by the F\Phi due to the cancellation of two errors: neglecting the CME width and neglecting the CME deceleration. Overall, the inaccuracies of the two fitting methods are expected to play an important role in the prediction of CME hit and arrival times as we head towards solar maximum and the STEREO spacecraft further move behind the Sun.Comment: Solar Physics, Online First, 17 page

Improving the measurement of QALYs in dementia: Developing patient- and carer-reported health state classification systems using Rasch analysis

Objectives: Cost-utility analysis is increasingly used to inform resource allocation. This requires a means of valuing health states before and after intervention. Although generic measures are typically used to generate values, these do not perform well with people with dementia. We report the development of a health state classification system amenable to valuation for use in studies of dementia, derived from the DEMQOL system, a measure of health-related quality of life in dementia by patient self-report (DEMQOL) and carer proxy-report (DEMQOL-Proxy). Methods: Factor analysis was used to determine the dimensional structure of DEMQOL and DEMQOL-Proxy. Rasch analysis was subsequently used to investigate item performance across factors in terms of item-level ordering, functioning across subgroups, model fit and severity-range coverage. This enabled the selection of one item from each factor for the classification system. A sample of people with a diagnosis of mild/moderate dementia (n=644) and a sample of carers of those with mild/moderate dementia (n=683) were used. Results: Factor analysis found different 5-factor solutions for DEMQOL and DEMQOL-Proxy. Following item reduction and selection using Rasch analysis, a 5-dimension classification for DEMQOL and a 4-dimension classification for DEMQOL-Proxy were developed. Each item contained 4 health state levels. Conclusion: Combining Rasch and classical psychometric analysis is a valid method of selecting items for dementia health state classifications from both the patient and carer perspectives. The next stage is to obtain preference weights so that the measure can be used in the economic evaluation of treatment, care and support arrangements for dementia

Accuracy and Limitations of Fitting and Stereoscopic Methods to Determine the Direction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Heliospheric Imagers Observations

Using data from the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard STEREO, it is possible to derive the direction of propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in addition to their speed with a variety of methods. For CMEs observed by both STEREO spacecraft, it is possible to derive their direction using simultaneous observations from the twin spacecraft and also, using observations from only one spacecraft with fitting methods. This makes it possible to test and compare different analyses techniques. In this article, we propose a new fitting method based on observations from one spacecraft, which we compare to the commonly used fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999). We also compare the results from these two fitting methods with those from two stereoscopic methods, focusing on 12 CMEs observed simultaneously by the two STEREO spacecraft in 2008 and 2009. We find evidence that the fitting method of Sheeley et al. (1999) can result in significant errors in the determination of the CME direction when the CME propagates outside of 60deg \pm 20 deg from the Sun-spacecraft line. We expect our new fitting method to be better adapted to the analysis of halo or limb CMEs with respect to the observing spacecraft. We also find some evidence that direct triangulation in the HI fields-of-view should only be applied to CMEs propagating approximatively towards Earth (\pm 20deg from the Sun-Earth line). Last, we address one of the possible sources of errors of fitting methods: the assumption of radial propagation. Using stereoscopic methods, we find that at least seven of the 12 studied CMEs had an heliospheric deflection of less than 20deg as they propagated in the HI fields-of-view, which, we believe, validates this approximation.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, accepted to Solar Physic

Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Consequences of Interacting CMEs of 13-14 June 2012

We report on the kinematics of two interacting CMEs observed on 13 and 14 June 2012. Both CMEs originated from the same active region NOAA 11504. After their launches which were separated by several hours, they were observed to interact at a distance of 100 Rs from the Sun. The interaction led to a moderate geomagnetic storm at the Earth with Dst index of approximately, -86 nT. The kinematics of the two CMEs is estimated using data from the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) onboard the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). Assuming a head-on collision scenario, we find that the collision is inelastic in nature. Further, the signatures of their interaction are examined using the in situ observations obtained by Wind and the Advance Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. It is also found that this interaction event led to the strongest sudden storm commencement (SSC) (approximately 150 nT) of the present Solar Cycle 24. The SSC was of long duration, approximately 20 hours. The role of interacting CMEs in enhancing the geoeffectiveness is examined.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, Accepted in Solar Physics Journa

Geomagnetic storm dependence on the solar flare class

Content. Solar flares are often used as precursors of geomagnetic storms. In particular, Howard and Tappin (2005) recently published in A&A a dependence between X-ray class of solar flares and Ap and Dst indexes of geomagnetic storms which contradicts to early published results. Aims. We compare published results on flare-storm dependences and discuss possible sources of the discrepancy. Methods. We analyze following sources of difference: (1) different intervals of observations, (2) different statistics and (3) different methods of event identification and comparison. Results. Our analysis shows that magnitude of geomagnetic storms is likely to be independent on X-ray class of solar flares.Comment: 3 pages, 1 tabl

Revisiting the X:BOT Naltrexone Clinical Trial Using a Comprehensive Survival Analysis

Objectives This paper illustrates survival models for analysis of trials of substance use treatment programs. It uses public release data from a study of extended-release naltrexone (XR-NTX), relative to buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NX). Methods We used publicly available data from the X:BOT trial (n = 570), which compared XR-NTX to BUP-NX on 2 efficacy outcomes (opioid relapse, use of nonprescribed opioids; positive opioid urine test) and 1 safety outcome (overdose). Intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol approaches were implemented using survival models that included treatment-by-time interactions. Results Consistent with the original trial findings, 72% of XR-NTX and 94% of BUP-NX subjects initiated treatment; the ITT hazard ratio for XR-NTX relative to BUP-NX was 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.73; P < 0.01) for opioid relapse and 1.31 (1.07, 1.60; P = 0.01) for positive urine test. Using treatment-by-time interactions, we examined the time-dependent effect of XR-NTX and found an elevated ITT overdose hazard ratio of 2.4 (1.1, 5.3; P = 0.03) overall and 3.8 (1.2, 11.6; P = 0.02) during the study treatment phase. This result (28 overdoses overall; 17 overdoses during the study treatment phase) contrasts with the previous analysis, which reported minimal differences in overdose between XR-NTX and BUP-NX. Conclusions An advantage of using time-dependent Cox models is its ability to isolate effects during specific periods. In general, our survival analyses concur with the conclusions of Lee et al (2018) for the efficacy outcomes, which demonstrated superiority of BUP-NX. In contrast to the original report, our analysis indicates a greater risk of overdose for XR-NTX, predominantly during the study treatment phase. Further investigation of this finding is a pressing research priority

On the structure and evolution of a polar crown prominence/filament system

Polar crown prominences are made of chromospheric plasma partially circling the Suns poles between 60 and 70 degree latitude. We aim to diagnose the 3D dynamics of a polar crown prominence using high cadence EUV images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/AIA at 304 and 171A and the Ahead spacecraft of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO-A)/EUVI at 195A. Using time series across specific structures we compare flows across the disk in 195A with the prominence dynamics seen on the limb. The densest prominence material forms vertical columns which are separated by many tens of Mm and connected by dynamic bridges of plasma that are clearly visible in 304/171A two-color images. We also observe intermittent but repetitious flows with velocity 15 km/s in the prominence that appear to be associated with EUV bright points on the solar disk. The boundary between the prominence and the overlying cavity appears as a sharp edge. We discuss the structure of the coronal cavity seen both above and around the prominence. SDO/HMI and GONG magnetograms are used to infer the underlying magnetic topology. The evolution and structure of the prominence with respect to the magnetic field seems to agree with the filament linkage model.Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures, Accepted for publication in Solar Physics Journal, Movies can be found at http://www2.mps.mpg.de/data/outgoing/panesar