Trends of staple food and input prices: Global and regional overview, 2007-2010

This policy brief is the fifth in a series of quarterly briefs that provide updates on the food price situation in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region. The briefs are a follow up of an earlier study on the impact of rising food prices in the ESA region that was carried out by the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in East and Central Africa (ASARECA) in collaboration with the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Eastern and Central Africa (ReSAKSS-ECA) and the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Alliance. The first update focused on the food price trends in ESA and their relationship with global food prices. The second update discussed policy responses to the food price crisis in ESA region. The third update focused on the relationships between the prices of staple foods and those of non-tradable foods (orphan crops), while the fourth brief discussed the linkages between the prices of agricultural inputs and output. This brief looks at the trend of the staple food prices, both global and national, over the period 2007-2010 and presents the price trends of inputs (fertilizer and fuel) over the same period. It also discusses the status of food prices before and after the food price crisis of 2008. Have the food prices continued to soar after the 2008 food price crisis? What is the effect of the drought in Russia and Thailand and the flooding in Pakistan on global and regional food prices

Effects of Micro Credit on Welfare of Households: The Case of Ainamoi Sub County, Kericho County, Kenya

This study examined factors affecting access of micro credit, the levels availed and their effects on households’ incomes and expenditures in Kericho County, specifically in Ainamoi Sub County, Kenya. In the study area, different portfolios have been used to extend credit, suggesting ability to reach a wide section of all cadres of the population. However, the impact on the welfare across beneficiaries had not been established. This study sought to fill this knowledge gap. To capture this, a sample of 96 households which had accessed micro credit was compared with a similar number which had not accessed micro credit. Stratification of households was done according to their membership to microfinance institutions. Random sampling method was used to select loan beneficiary households. The data was collected by administration of a structured questionnaire and it was analyzed using the SPSS and other statistical techniques. Heckman selection model was applied to identify the factors and their effect on the level of participation of households in the micro credit. Difference in difference (DID) model was used to analyze the effects of micro credit on incomes and expenditure of households. From the findings, this study concluded that participation in microcredit program resulted in improvement of the beneficiaries’ quality of life. From the study, Policy implications were drawn for improving access and the levels of participation in micro credit programme. Key words: Micro credit, Households, Heckman selection model, Difference in Difference

Common interest

SummaryOne of the West's frontline bases during the Cold War has been turned into an innovative conservation project. Nigel Williams reports

Estimating the cumulative effects of the nature-based tourism in a coastal dolphin population from southern Kenya

Due to the growth of nature-based tourism worldwide, behavioural studies are needed to assess the impact of this industry on wildlife populations and understand their short-term effect. Tourism impact on dolphin populations remain poorly documented in developing countries. This study investigates the effects of nature-based tourism on the behaviour of the Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) in southern Kenya. We used Markov chain models to estimate transition probabilities between behavioural states in the presence and absence of tourist boats, and assess the overall behavioural budgets. Based on these data and the tourism intensity in the area, we quantified the potential tourist boat disturbance over the period 2006-2013. Our results demonstrated that tourist boat interactions affected dolphins' behavioural budgets, with a significant decrease in the overall amount of time travelling and an increase in diving. The average duration of travelling and resting decreased significantly in the presence of boats. Although the cumulative tourism exposure was not significant for the dolphin population at their current levels, these impacts should be taken into consideration with the potential tourism growth in the area. This is particularly important if tourism reaches periods of high intensity, as we have shown that these periods could have a significant impact for the species, particularly where home-range and core areas are highly overlap by this activity. Understanding the effect of human disturbance variations from previous years may help to predict the consequences on dolphin populations, towards achieving a more ecological and economic sustainability of the activity

Multiple Sexual Partners and Condom use among 10 - 19 Year-olds in four Districts in Tanzania: What do we Learn?

Although some studies in Tanzania have addressed the question of sexuality and STIs among adolescents, mostly those aged 15 - 19 years, evidence on how multiple sexual partners influence condom use among 10 - 19 year-olds is limited. This study attempts to bridge this gap by testing a hypothesis that sexual relationships with multiple partners in the age group 10 - 19 years spurs condom use during sex in four districts in Tanzania. Secondary analysis was performed using data from the Adolescents Module of the cross-sectional household survey on Maternal, Newborn and Child Health (MNCH) that was done in Kigoma, Kilombero, Rufiji and Ulanga districts, Tanzania in 2008. A total of 612 adolescents resulting from a random sample of 1200 households participated in this study. Pearson Chi-Square was used as a test of association between multiple sexual partners and condom use. Multivariate logistic regression model was fitted to the data to assess the effect of multiple sexual partners on condom use, having adjusted for potential confounding variables. STATA (10) statistical software was used to carry out this process at 5% two-sided significance level. Of the 612 adolescents interviewed, 23.4% reported being sexually active and 42.0% of these reported having had multiple (> 1) sexual partners in the last 12 months. The overall prevalence of condom use among them was 39.2%. The proportion using a condom at the last sexual intercourse was higher among those who knew that they can get a condom if they want than those who did not. No evidence of association was found between multiple sexual partners and condom use (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.35 - 1.67, P = 0.504). With younger adolescents (10 - 14 years) being a reference, condom use was associated with age group (15 - 19: OR = 3.69, 95% CI = 1.21 - 11.25, P = 0.022) and district of residence (Kigoma: OR = 7.45, 95% CI = 1.79 - 31.06, P = 0.006; Kilombero: OR = 8.89, 95% CI = 2.91 - 27.21, P < 0.001; Ulanga: OR = 5.88, 95% CI = 2.00 - 17.31, P = 0.001), Rufiji being a reference category. No evidence of association was found between multiple sexual partners and condom use among adolescents in the study area. The large proportion of adolescents who engage in sexual activity without using condoms, even those with multiple partners, perpetuates the risk of transmission of HIV infections in the community. Strategies such as sex education and easing access to and making a friendly environment for condom availability are important to address the risky sexual behaviour among adolescents

Multiplicity of Plasmodium falciparum infection in asymptomatic children in Senegal: relation to transmission, age and erythrocyte variants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Individuals living in malaria endemic areas generally harbour multiple parasite strains. Multiplicity of infection (MOI) can be an indicator of immune status. However, whether this is good or bad for the development of immunity to malaria, is still a matter of debate. This study aimed to examine the MOI in asymptomatic children between two and ten years of age and to relate it to erythrocyte variants, clinical attacks, transmission levels and other parasitological indexes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Study took place in Niakhar area in Senegal, where malaria is mesoendemic and seasonal. Three hundred and seventy two asymptomatic children were included. Sickle-cell trait, G6PD deficiency (A- and Santamaria) and α⁺-thalassaemia (-α^3.7type) were determined using PCR. Multiplicity of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>infection, i.e. number of concurrent clones, was defined by PCR-based genotyping of the merozoite surface protein-2 (<it>msp2</it>), before and at the end of the malaria transmission season. The χ²-test, ANOVA, multivariate linear regression and logistic regression statistical tests were used for data analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>MOI was significantly higher at the end of transmission season. The majority of PCR positive subjects had multiple infections at both time points (64% before and 87% after the transmission season). MOI did not increase in α-thalassaemic and G6PD mutated children. The ABO system and HbAS did not affect MOI at any time points. No association between MOI and clinical attack was observed. MOI did not vary over age at any time points. There was a significant correlation between MOI and parasite density, as the higher parasite counts increases the probability of having multiple infections.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Taken together our data revealed that α-thalassaemia may have a role in protection against certain parasite strains. The protection against the increase in MOI after the transmission season conferred by G6PD deficiency is probably due to clearance of the malaria parasite at early stages of infection. The ABO system and HbAS are involved in the severity of the disease but do not affect asymptomatic infections. MOI was not age-dependent, in the range of two to ten years, but was correlated with parasite density. However some of these observations need to be confirmed including larger sample size with broader age range and using other <it>msp2 </it>genotyping method.</p

The ratio of monocytes to lymphocytes in peripheral blood correlates with increased susceptibility to clinical malaria in Kenyan children.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum malaria remains a major cause of illness and death in sub-Saharan Africa. Young children bear the brunt of the disease and though older children and adults suffer relatively fewer clinical attacks, they remain susceptible to asymptomatic P. falciparum infection. A better understanding of the host factors associated with immunity to clinical malaria and the ability to sustain asymptomatic P. falciparum infection will aid the development of improved strategies for disease prevention. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Here we investigate whether full differential blood counts can predict susceptibility to clinical malaria among Kenyan children sampled at five annual cross-sectional surveys. We find that the ratio of monocytes to lymphocytes, measured in peripheral blood at the time of survey, directly correlates with risk of clinical malaria during follow-up. This association is evident among children with asymptomatic P. falciparum infection at the time the cell counts are measured (Hazard ratio (HR)  =  2.7 (95% CI 1.42, 5.01, P  =  0.002) but not in those without detectable parasitaemia (HR  =  1.0 (95% CI 0.74, 1.42, P  =  0.9). CONCLUSIONS: We propose that the monocyte to lymphocyte ratio, which is easily derived from routine full differential blood counts, reflects an individual's capacity to mount an effective immune response to P. falciparum infection

Estimating Individual Exposure to Malaria Using Local Prevalence of Malaria Infection in the Field

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in malaria exposure complicates survival analyses of vaccine efficacy trials and confounds the association between immune correlates of protection and malaria infection in longitudinal studies. Analysis may be facilitated by taking into account the variability in individual exposure levels, but it is unclear how exposure can be estimated at an individual level. METHOD AND FINDINGS: We studied three cohorts (Chonyi, Junju and Ngerenya) in Kilifi District, Kenya to assess measures of malaria exposure. Prospective data were available on malaria episodes, geospatial coordinates, proximity to infected and uninfected individuals and residence in predefined malaria hotspots for 2,425 individuals. Antibody levels to the malaria antigens AMA1 and MSP1(142) were available for 291 children from Junju. We calculated distance-weighted local prevalence of malaria infection within 1 km radius as a marker of individual's malaria exposure. We used multivariable modified Poisson regression model to assess the discriminatory power of these markers for malaria infection (i.e. asymptomatic parasitaemia or clinical malaria). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the discriminatory power of the models. Local malaria prevalence within 1 km radius and AMA1 and MSP1(142) antibodies levels were independently associated with malaria infection. Weighted local malaria prevalence had an area under ROC curve of 0.72 (95%CI: 0.66-0.73), 0.71 (95%CI: 0.69-0.73) and 0.82 (95%CI: 0.80-0.83) among cohorts in Chonyi, Junju and Ngerenya respectively. In a small subset of children from Junju, a model incorporating weighted local malaria prevalence with AMA1 and MSP1(142) antibody levels provided an AUC of 0.83 (95%CI: 0.79-0.88). CONCLUSION: We have proposed an approach to estimating the intensity of an individual's malaria exposure in the field. The weighted local malaria prevalence can be used as individual marker of malaria exposure in malaria vaccine trials and longitudinal studies of natural immunity to malaria