The Oyster River Culvert Analysis Project

Studies have already detected intensification of precipitation events consistent with climate change projections. Communities may have a window of opportunity to prepare, but information sufficiently quantified and localized to support adaptation programs is sparse: published literature is typically characterized by general resilience building or regional vulnerability studies. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC observed that adaptation can no longer be postponed pending the effective elimination of uncertainty. Methods must be developed that manage residual uncertainty, providing community leaders with decision-support information sufficient for implementing infrastructure adaptation programs. This study developed a local-scale and actionable protocol for maintaining historical risk levels for communities facing significant impacts from climate change and population growth. For a coastal watershed, the study assessed the capacity of the present stormwater infrastructure capacity for conveying expected peak flow resulting from climate change and population growth. The project transferred coupled-climate model projections to the culvert system, in a form understandable to planners, resource managers and decision-makers; applied standard civil engineering methods to reverse-engineer culverts to determine existing and required capacities; modeled the potential for LID methods to manage peak flow in lieu of, or combination with, drainage system upsizing; and estimated replacement costs using local and national construction cost data. The mid-21st century, most likely 25-year, 24-hour precipitation is estimated to be 35% greater than the TP-40 precipitation for the SRES A1b trajectory, and 64% greater than the TP-40 value for the SRES A1fi trajectory. 5% of culverts are already undersized for the TP-40 event to which they should have been designed. Under the most likely A1b trajectory, an additional 12% of culverts likely will be undersized, while under the most likely A1fi scenario, an additional 19% likely will be undersized. These conditions place people and property at greater risk than that historically acceptable from the TP-4025-year design storm. This risk level may be maintained by a long-term upgrade program, utilizing existing strategies to manage uncertainty and costs. At the upper-95% confidence limit for the A1fi 25-year event, 65% of culverts are adequately sized, and building the remaining 35%, and planned, culverts to thrice the cross-sectional area specified from TP-40 should provide adequate capacity through this event. Realizable LID methods can mitigate significant impacts from climate change and population growth, however effectiveness is limited for the more pessimistic climate change projections. Results indicate that uncertainty in coupled-climate model projections is not an impediment to adaptation. This study makes a significant contribution toward the generation of reliable and specific estimates of impacts from climate change, in support of programs to adapt civil infrastructures. This study promotes a solution to today\u27s arguably most significant challenge in civil infrastructure adaptation: translating the extensive corpus of adaptation theory and regional-scale impacts analyses into localscale action

Evaluation of an Outer Loop Retrofit Architecture for Intelligent Turbofan Engine Thrust Control

The thrust control capability of a retrofit architecture for intelligent turbofan engine control and diagnostics is evaluated. The focus of the study is on the portion of the hierarchical architecture that performs thrust estimation and outer loop thrust control. The inner loop controls fan speed so the outer loop automatically adjusts the engine's fan speed command to maintain thrust at the desired level, based on pilot input, even as the engine deteriorates with use. The thrust estimation accuracy is assessed under nominal and deteriorated conditions at multiple operating points, and the closed loop thrust control performance is studied, all in a complex real-time nonlinear turbofan engine simulation test bed. The estimation capability, thrust response, and robustness to uncertainty in the form of engine degradation are evaluated

A Retro-Fit Control Architecture to Maintain Engine Performance With Usage

An outer loop retrofit engine control architecture is presented which modifies fan speed command to obtain a desired thrust based on throttle position. This maintains the throttle-to-thrust relationship in the presence of engine degradation, which has the effect of changing the engine s thrust output for a given fan speed. Such an approach can minimize thrust asymmetry in multi-engine aircraft, and reduce pilot workload. The outer loop control is demonstrated under various levels of engine deterioration using a standard deterioration profile as well as an atypical profile. It is evaluated across various transients covering a wide operating range. The modified fan speed command still utilizes the standard engine control logic so all original life and operability limits remain in place. In all cases it is shown that with the outer loop thrust control in place, the deteriorated engine is able to match the thrust performance of a new engine up to the limits the controller will allow

Meeting the Challenges of Exploration Systems: Health Management Technologies for Aerospace Systems With Emphasis on Propulsion

The constraints of future Exploration Missions will require unique Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) capabilities throughout the mission. An ambitious launch schedule, human-rating requirements, long quiescent periods, limited human access for repair or replacement, and long communication delays all require an ISHM system that can span distinct yet interdependent vehicle subsystems, anticipate failure states, provide autonomous remediation, and support the Exploration Mission from beginning to end. NASA Glenn Research Center has developed and applied health management system technologies to aerospace propulsion systems for almost two decades. Lessons learned from past activities help define the approach to proper ISHM development: sensor selection- identifies sensor sets required for accurate health assessment; data qualification and validation-ensures the integrity of measurement data from sensor to data system; fault detection and isolation-uses measurements in a component/subsystem context to detect faults and identify their point of origin; information fusion and diagnostic decision criteria-aligns data from similar and disparate sources in time and use that data to perform higher-level system diagnosis; and verification and validation-uses data, real or simulated, to provide variable exposure to the diagnostic system for faults that may only manifest themselves in actual implementation, as well as faults that are detectable via hardware testing. This presentation describes a framework for developing health management systems and highlights the health management research activities performed by the Controls and Dynamics Branch at the NASA Glenn Research Center. It illustrates how those activities contribute to the development of solutions for Integrated System Health Management

Optimal Sensor Selection for Health Monitoring Systems

Sensor data are the basis for performance and health assessment of most complex systems. Careful selection and implementation of sensors is critical to enable high fidelity system health assessment. A model-based procedure that systematically selects an optimal sensor suite for overall health assessment of a designated host system is described. This procedure, termed the Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4), was developed at NASA John H. Glenn Research Center in order to enhance design phase planning and preparations for in-space propulsion health management systems (HMS). Information and capabilities required to utilize the S4 approach in support of design phase development of robust health diagnostics are outlined. A merit metric that quantifies diagnostic performance and overall risk reduction potential of individual sensor suites is introduced. The conceptual foundation for this merit metric is presented and the algorithmic organization of the S4 optimization process is described. Representative results from S4 analyses of a boost stage rocket engine previously under development as part of NASA's Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT) program are presented

Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4) User Guide

This paper describes a User Guide for the Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4). S4 was developed to optimally select a sensor suite from a larger pool of candidate sensors based on their performance in a diagnostic system. For aerospace systems, selecting the proper sensors is important for ensuring adequate measurement coverage to satisfy operational, maintenance, performance, and system diagnostic criteria. S4 optimizes the selection of sensors based on the system fault diagnostic approach while taking conflicting objectives such as cost, weight and reliability into consideration. S4 can be described as a general architecture structured to accommodate application-specific components and requirements. It performs combinational optimization with a user defined merit or cost function to identify optimum or near-optimum sensor suite solutions. The S4 User Guide describes the sensor selection procedure and presents an example problem using an open source turbofan engine simulation to demonstrate its application

Real-Time Simulation for Verification and Validation of Diagnostic and Prognostic Algorithms

To verify that a health management system (HMS) performs as expected, a virtual system simulation capability, including interaction with the associated platform or vehicle, very likely will need to be developed. The rationale for developing this capability is discussed and includes the limited capability to seed faults into the actual target system due to the risk of potential damage to high value hardware. The capability envisioned would accurately reproduce the propagation of a fault or failure as observed by sensors located at strategic locations on and around the target system and would also accurately reproduce the control system and vehicle response. In this way, HMS operation can be exercised over a broad range of conditions to verify that it meets requirements for accurate, timely response to actual faults with adequate margin against false and missed detections. An overview is also presented of a real-time rocket propulsion health management system laboratory which is available for future rocket engine programs. The health management elements and approaches of this lab are directly applicable for future space systems. In this paper the various components are discussed and the general fault detection, diagnosis, isolation and the response (FDIR) concept is presented. Additionally, the complexities of V&V (Verification and Validation) for advanced algorithms and the simulation capabilities required to meet the changing state-of-the-art in HMS are discussed

Performance Evaluation of a Data Validation System

Online data validation is a performance-enhancing component of modern control and health management systems. It is essential that performance of the data validation system be verified prior to its use in a control and health management system. A new Data Qualification and Validation (DQV) Test-bed application was developed to provide a systematic test environment for this performance verification. The DQV Test-bed was used to evaluate a model-based data validation package known as the Data Quality Validation Studio (DQVS). DQVS was employed as the primary data validation component of a rocket engine health management (EHM) system developed under NASA's NGLT (Next Generation Launch Technology) program. In this paper, the DQVS and DQV Test-bed software applications are described, and the DQV Test-bed verification procedure for this EHM system application is presented. Test-bed results are summarized and implications for EHM system performance improvements are discussed

Investigation of Asymmetric Thrust Detection with Demonstration in a Real-Time Simulation Testbed

The purpose of this effort is to develop, demonstrate, and evaluate three asymmetric thrust detection approaches to aid in the reduction of asymmetric thrust-induced aviation accidents. This paper presents the results from that effort and their evaluation in simulation studies, including those from a real-time flight simulation testbed. Asymmetric thrust is recognized as a contributing factor in several Propulsion System Malfunction plus Inappropriate Crew Response (PSM+ICR) aviation accidents. As an improvement over the state-of-the-art, providing annunciation of asymmetric thrust to alert the crew may hold safety benefits. For this, the reliable detection and confirmation of asymmetric thrust conditions is required. For this work, three asymmetric thrust detection methods are presented along with their results obtained through simulation studies. Representative asymmetric thrust conditions are modeled in simulation based on failure scenarios similar to those reported in aviation incident and accident descriptions. These simulated asymmetric thrust scenarios, combined with actual aircraft operational flight data, are then used to conduct a sensitivity study regarding the detection capabilities of the three methods. Additional evaluation results are presented based on pilot-in-the-loop simulation studies conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) flight simulation testbed. Data obtained from this flight simulation facility are used to further evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the asymmetric thrust detection approaches. Generally, the asymmetric thrust conditions are correctly detected and confirmed

Investigation of Asymmetric Thrust Detection with Demonstration in a Real-Time Simulation Testbed

The purpose of this effort is to develop, demonstrate, and evaluate three asymmetric thrust detection approaches to aid in the reduction of asymmetric thrust-induced aviation accidents. This paper presents the results from that effort and their evaluation in simulation studies, including those from a real-time flight simulation testbed. Asymmetric thrust is recognized as a contributing factor in several Propulsion System Malfunction plus Inappropriate Crew Response (PSM+ICR) aviation accidents. As an improvement over the state-of-the-art, providing annunciation of asymmetric thrust to alert the crew may hold safety benefits. For this, the reliable detection and confirmation of asymmetric thrust conditions is required. For this work, three asymmetric thrust detection methods are presented along with their results obtained through simulation studies. Representative asymmetric thrust conditions are modeled in simulation based on failure scenarios similar to those reported in aviation incident and accident descriptions. These simulated asymmetric thrust scenarios, combined with actual aircraft operational flight data, are then used to conduct a sensitivity study regarding the detection capabilities of the three methods. Additional evaluation results are presented based on pilot-in-the-loop simulation studies conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) flight simulation testbed. Data obtained from this flight simulation facility are used to further evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the asymmetric thrust detection approaches. Generally, the asymmetric thrust conditions are correctly detected and confirmed