Madagascar corals reveal a multidecadal signature of rainfall and river runoff since 1708

Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) influence rainfall variability on multidecadal and interdecadal timescales in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Rainfall variations in locations such as Australia and North America are therefore linked to phase changes in the PDO. Furthermore, studies have suggested teleconnections exist between the western Indian Ocean and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), similar to those observed on interannual timescales related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, as instrumental records of rainfall are too short and sparse to confidently assess multidecadal climatic teleconnections, here we present four coral climate archives from Madagascar spanning up to the past 300 yr (1708–2008) to assess such decadal variability. Using spectral luminescence scanning to reconstruct past changes in river runoff, we identify significant multidecadal and interdecadal frequencies in the coral records, which before 1900 are coherent with Asian-based PDO reconstructions. This multidecadal relationship with the Asian-based PDO reconstructions points to an unidentified teleconnection mechanism that affects Madagascar rainfall/runoff, most likely triggered by multidecadal changes in North Pacific SST, influencing the Asian Monsoon circulation. In the 20th century we decouple human deforestation effects from rainfall-induced soil erosion by pairing luminescence with coral geochemistry. Positive PDO phases are associated with increased Indian Ocean temperatures and runoff/rainfall in eastern Madagascar, while precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia declines. Consequently, the negative PDO phase that started in 1998 may contribute to reduced rainfall over eastern Madagascar and increased precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia. We conclude that multidecadal rainfall variability in Madagascar and the western Indian Ocean needs to be taken into account when considering water resource management under a future warming climate

Spatial linkages between coral proxies of terrestrial runoff across a large embayment in Madagascar

Coral cores provide vital climate reconstructions for site-specific temporal variability in river flow and sediment load. Yet, their ability to record spatial differences across multiple catchments is relatively unknown. Here, we investigate spatial linkages between four coral proxies of terrestrial runoff and their relationships between sites. Coral cores were drilled in and around Antongil Bay, the largest bay in Madagascar, and individually analysed for fifteen years of continuous luminescence (G / B), Ba / Ca, δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>sw</sub> and δ<sup>13</sup>C data. Each coral core was drilled close to individual river mouths (≥ 7 km), and proxy data were compared to modelled river discharge and sediment runoff data for the three corresponding catchments. A reasonable agreement between terrestrial runoff proxies with modelled river discharge and sediment yield was observed. Some inconsistencies between proxy and modelled data are likely linked to proxy behaviour, watershed size and local environmental physiochemical parameters. In general, the further a coral resided from its river source, the weaker the proxy relationship was with modelled data and other corals, due to mixing gradients and currents. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that two coral Ba / Ca and luminescence (G / B) records influenced by the same watershed are reproducible. Furthermore, a strong Ba / Ca relationship was observed between two cores from distant watersheds, with baseline averages in agreement with modelled sediment runoff data. As humic acids behave conservatively in the water column, luminescence (G / B) data gave the highest regional correlations between cores, and showed the most consistent relationship with site specific modelled discharge. No statistical relationship was observed between cores in terms of interannual δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>sw</sub> and δ<sup>13</sup>C, meaning corals were recording a localised signal at their respective sites, confounded by vital effects. Comparing proxy baseline averages and mean seasonal cycles provided a good overview of the runoff dynamics of the bay system

River runoff reconstructions from novel spectral luminescence scanning of massive coral skeletons

Inshore massive corals often display bright luminescent lines that have been linked to river flood plumes into coastal catchments and hence have the potential to provide a long-term record of hinterland precipitation. Coral luminescence is thought to result from the incorporation of soil-derived humic acids transported to the reef during major flood events. Corals far from terrestrial sources generally only exhibit dull relatively broad luminescence bands, which are attributed to seasonal changes in coral density. We therefore tested the hypothesis that spectral ratios rather than conventional luminescence intensity provide a quantitative proxy record of river runoff without the confounding effects of seasonal density changes. For this purpose, we have developed a new, rapid spectral luminescence scanning (SLS) technique that splits emission intensities into red, green and blue domains (RGB) for entire cores with an unprecedented linear resolution of 71. 4 μm. Since humic acids have longer emission wavelength than the coral aragonite, normalisation of spectral emissions should yield a sensitive optical humic acid/aragonite ratio for humic acid runoff, i. e., G/B ratio. Indeed, G/B ratios rather than intensities are well correlated with Ba/Ca, a geochemical coral proxy for sediment runoff, and with rainfall data, as exemplified for coral records from Madagascar. Coral cores also display recent declining trends in luminescence intensity, which are also reported in corals elsewhere. Such trends appear to be associated with a modern decline in skeletal densities. By contrast, G/B spectral ratios not only mark the impact of individual cyclones but also imply that humic acid runoff increased in Madagascar over the past few decades while coral skeletal densities decreased. Consequently, the SLS technique deconvolves the long-term interplay between humic acid incorporation and coral density that have confounded earlier attempts to use luminescence intensities as a proxy for river runoff