Expanding the simulation of East Asian super dust storms: physical transport mechanisms impacting the western Pacific

Dust models are widely applied over the East Asian region for the simulation of dust emission, transport, and deposition. However, due to the uncertainties in estimates of dust transport, these methods still lack the necessary precision to capture the complexity of transboundary dust events. This study demonstrates an improvement in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model dust treatment during long-range transport of dust from northwestern China to the South China Sea (SCS). To accomplish this, we considered a super dust storm (SDS) event in March 2010 and evaluated the dust scheme by including adjustments to the recent calibration (Dust_Refined_1) and bulk density (Dust_Refined_2) refinements individually and in combination (Dust_Refined_3). The Dust_Refined_3 normalized mean bias of PM10 was −30.65 % for the 2010 SDS event, which was lower in magnitude compared to Dust_Refined_1 (−41.18 %) and Dust_Refined_2 (−49.88 %). Indeed, Dust_Refined_3 improved the simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) value during significant dust cases, e.g., in March 2005, March 2006, and April 2009. Dust_Refined_3 also showed more clearly that, in March 2010, a “double plume” (i.e., one plume originating from the Taiwan Strait and the other from the western Pacific) separated by the Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan affected dust transport on the island of Dongsha in the SCS. On 15–21 April 2021, both CMAQ simulations and satellite data highlighted the influence of Typhoon Surigae on dust transport to downwind Taiwan and the western Pacific Ocean (WPO). The CMAQ Dust_Refined_3 simulations further revealed that many dust aerosols were removed over the WPO due to Typhoon Surigae. Hence, the model indicated a near-zero dust particle concentration over the WPO, which was significantly different from previous dust transport episodes over the Taiwan region. Therefore, our study suggested an effective method to improve dust management of CMAQ under unique topographical and meteorological conditions.</p

The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment: Exploring Fundamental Symmetries of the Universe

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early Universe, the dynamics of the supernova bursts that produced the heavy elements necessary for life and whether protons eventually decay --- these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our Universe, its current state and its eventual fate. The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment (LBNE) represents an extensively developed plan for a world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions. LBNE is conceived around three central components: (1) a new, high-intensity neutrino source generated from a megawatt-class proton accelerator at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, (2) a near neutrino detector just downstream of the source, and (3) a massive liquid argon time-projection chamber deployed as a far detector deep underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. This facility, located at the site of the former Homestake Mine in Lead, South Dakota, is approximately 1,300 km from the neutrino source at Fermilab -- a distance (baseline) that delivers optimal sensitivity to neutrino charge-parity symmetry violation and mass ordering effects. This ambitious yet cost-effective design incorporates scalability and flexibility and can accommodate a variety of upgrades and contributions. With its exceptional combination of experimental configuration, technical capabilities, and potential for transformative discoveries, LBNE promises to be a vital facility for the field of particle physics worldwide, providing physicists from around the globe with opportunities to collaborate in a twenty to thirty year program of exciting science. In this document we provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess.Comment: Major update of previous version. This is the reference document for LBNE science program and current status. Chapters 1, 3, and 9 provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess. 288 pages, 116 figure

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Scalable sequential alternating proximal methods for sparse structural SVMs and CRFs

Structural Support Vector Machines (SSVMs) and Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) are popular discriminative methods used for classifying structured and complex objects like parse trees, image segments and part-of-speech tags. The datasets involved are very large dimensional, and the models designed using typical training algorithms for SSVMs and CRFs are non-sparse. This non-sparse nature of models results in slow inference. Thus, there is a need to devise new algorithms for sparse SSVM and CRF classifier design. Use of elastic net and L1-regularizer has already been explored for solving primal CRF and SSVM problems, respectively, to design sparse classifiers. In this work, we focus on dual elastic net regularized SSVM and CRF. By exploiting the weakly coupled structure of these convex programming problems, we propose a new sequential alternating proximal (SAP) algorithm to solve these dual problems. This algorithm works by sequentially visiting each training set example and solving a simple subproblem restricted to a small subset of variables associated with that example. Numerical experiments on various benchmark sequence labeling datasets demonstrate that the proposed algorithm scales well. Further, the classifiers designed are sparser than those designed by solving the respective primal problems and demonstrate comparable generalization performance. Thus, the proposed SAP algorithm is a useful alternative for sparse SSVM and CRF classifier design

Sequential alternating proximal method for scalable sparse structural SVMs

Structural Support Vector Machines (SSVMs) have recently gained wide prominence in classifying structured and complex objects like parse-trees, image segments and Part-of-Speech (POS) tags. Typical learning algorithms used in training SSVMs result in model parameters which are vectors residing in a large-dimensional feature space. Such a high-dimensional model parameter vector contains many non-zero components which often lead to slow prediction and storage issues. Hence there is a need for sparse parameter vectors which contain a very small number of non-zero components. L1-regularizer and elastic net regularizer have been traditionally used to get sparse model parameters. Though L1-regularized structural SVMs have been studied in the past, the use of elastic net regularizer for structural SVMs has not been explored yet. In this work, we formulate the elastic net SSVM and propose a sequential alternating proximal algorithm to solve the dual formulation. We compare the proposed method with existing methods for L1-regularized Structural SVMs. Experiments on large-scale benchmark datasets show that the proposed dual elastic net SSVM trained using the sequential alternating proximal algorithm scales well and results in highly sparse model parameters while achieving a comparable generalization performance. Hence the proposed sequential alternating proximal algorithm is a competitive method to achieve sparse model parameters and a comparable generalization performance when elastic net regularized Structural SVMs are used on very large datasets