A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

The central region of the Fornax cluster -- I. A catalog and photometric properties of galaxies in selected CCD fields

We present a photometric catalog (based on V and I photometry) of galaxies in the central regions of the Fornax galaxy cluster. Our 11 CCD fields cover 0.17 degrees in total. The limiting surface brightness is around 24 mag arsec^-2, similar to that of Ferguson's (1989, AJ 98, 367) catalog, whereas our limiting total magnitude is around V = 22 mag, about two magnitudes fainter. It is the surface brightness limit, however, that prevents us from detecting the counterparts of the faintest Local Group dwarf spheroidals. The photometric properties of all objects are presented as a catalog. The properties and fit parameters of the surface brightness profiles for a sub-sample are presented as a second catalog (both catalogs are available in electronic form at the CDS). We can only add 4 new dwarf galaxies to Ferguson's catalog. However, we confirm that the dwarf galaxies in Fornax follow a similar surface brightness-magnitude relation as the Local Group dwarfs. They also follow the color (metallicity) - relation seen in other galaxy clusters. A formerly suspected excess of dwarf galaxies surrounding the central cD galaxy NGC 1399 can finally be ruled out. An enhanced density of objects around NGC 1399 can indeed be seen, but it appears displaced with respect to the central galaxy and is identified as a background cluster at z = 0.11 in Paper II of these series, which will discuss spectroscopic results for our sample.Comment: 15 pages, LaTeX2e, uses aa.cls, including 10 PostScript figures, 1 additional gif figure; accepted for publication in A&AS, also available at http://www.astro.puc.cl/~mhilker/publication.htm

Learning and Pooling, Pooling and Learning

We explore which types of probabilistic updating commute with convex IP pooling (Stewart and Ojea Quintana 2017). Positive results are stated for Bayesian conditionalization (and a mild generalization of it), imaging, and a certain parameterization of Jeffrey conditioning. This last observation is obtained with the help of a slight generalization of a characterization of (precise) externally Bayesian pooling operators due to Wagner (Log J IGPL 18(2):336--345, 2009). These results strengthen the case that pooling should go by imprecise probabilities since no precise pooling method is as versatile

Probabilistic Opinion Pooling with Imprecise Probabilities

The question of how the probabilistic opinions of different individuals should be aggregated to form a group opinion is controversial. But one assumption seems to be pretty much common ground: for a group of Bayesians, the representation of group opinion should itself be a unique probability distribution (Madansky 44; Lehrer and Wagner 34; McConway Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76(374), 410--414, 45; Bordley Management Science, 28(10), 1137--1148, 5; Genest et al. The Annals of Statistics, 487--501, 21; Genest and Zidek Statistical Science, 114--135, 23; Mongin Journal of Economic Theory, 66(2), 313--351, 46; Clemen and Winkler Risk Analysis, 19(2), 187--203, 7; Dietrich and List 14; Herzberg Theory and Decision, 1--19, 28). We argue that this assumption is not always in order. We show how to extend the canonical mathematical framework for pooling to cover pooling with imprecise probabilities (IP) by employing set-valued pooling functions and generalizing common pooling axioms accordingly. As a proof of concept, we then show that one IP construction satisfies a number of central pooling axioms that are not jointly satisfied by any of the standard pooling recipes on pain of triviality. Following Levi (Synthese, 62(1), 3--11, 39), we also argue that IP models admit of a much better philosophical motivation as a model of rational consensus

Evaluation of radiography as a screening method for detection and characterisation of congenital vertebral malformations in dogs

Congenital vertebral malformations (CVM) are common in brachycephalic ‘screw-tailed’ dogs; they can be associated with neurological deficits and a genetic predisposition has been suggested. The purpose of this study was to evaluate radiography as a screening method for congenital thoracic vertebral malformations in brachycephalic ‘screw-tailed’ dogs by comparing it with CT. Forty-nine dogs that had both radiographic and CT evaluations of the thoracic vertebral column were included. Three observers retrospectively reviewed the images independently to detect CVMs. When identified, they were classified according to a previously published radiographic classification scheme. A CT consensus was then reached. All observers identified significantly more affected vertebrae when evaluating orthogonal radiographic views compared with lateral views alone; and more affected vertebrae with the CT consensus compared with orthogonal radiographic views. Given the high number of CVMs per dog, the number of dogs classified as being CVM free was not significantly different between CT and radiography. Significantly more midline closure defects were also identified with CT compared with radiography. Malformations classified as symmetrical or ventral hypoplasias on radiography were frequently classified as ventral and medial aplasias on CT images. Our results support that CT is better than radiography for the classification of CVMs and this will be important when further evidence of which are the most clinically relevant CVMs is identified. These findings are of particular importance for designing screening schemes of CVMs that could help selective breeding programmes based on phenotype and future studies

The Five Planets in the Kepler-296 Binary System All Orbit the Primary: A Statistical and Analytical Analysis

Kepler-296 is a binary star system with two M-dwarf components separated by 0.2 arcsec. Five transiting planets have been confirmed to be associated with the Kepler-296 system; given the evidence to date, however, the planets could in principle orbit either star. This ambiguity has made it difficult to constrain both the orbital and physical properties of the planets. Using both statistical and analytical arguments, this paper shows that all five planets are highly likely to orbit the primary star in this system. We performed a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation using a five transiting planet model, leaving the stellar density and dilution with uniform priors. Using importance sampling, we compared the model probabilities under the priors of the planets orbiting either the brighter or the fainter component of the binary. A model where the planets orbit the brighter component, Kepler-296A, is strongly preferred by the data. Combined with our assertion that all five planets orbit the same star, the two outer planets in the system, Kepler-296 Ae and Kepler-296 Af, have radii of 1.53 +/- 0.26 and 1.80 +/- 0.31 R_earth, respectively, and receive incident stellar fluxes of 1.40 +/- 0.23 and 0.62 +/- 0.10 times the incident flux the Earth receives from the Sun. This level of irradiation places both planets within or close to the circumstellar habitable zone of their parent star.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Using Ginkgo’s memory accessor for improving the accuracy of memory-bound low precision BLAS

The roofline model not only provides a powerful tool to relate an application\u27s performance with the specific constraints imposed by the target hardware but also offers a graphic representation of the balance between memory access cost and compute throughput. In this work, we present a strategy to break up the tight coupling between the precision format used for arithmetic operations and the storage format employed for memory operations. (At a high level, this idea is equivalent to compressing/decompressing the data in registers before/after invoking store/load memory operations.) In practice, we demonstrate that a “memory accessor” that hides the data compression behind the memory access, can virtually push the bandwidth-induced roofline, yielding higher performance for memory-bound applications using high precision arithmetic that can handle the numerical effects associated with lossy compression. We also demonstrate that memory-bound applications operating on low precision data can increase the accuracy by relying on the memory accessor to perform all arithmetic operations in high precision. In particular, we demonstrate that memory-bound BLAS operations (including the sparse matrix-vector product) can be re-engineered with the memory accessor and that the resulting accessor-enabled BLAS routines achieve lower rounding errors while delivering the same performance as the fast low precision BLAS

X-ray Over-Luminous Elliptical Galaxies: A New Class of Mass Concentrations in the Universe?

We detect four isolated, X-ray over-luminous (Lx>2e43 [h/0.5]**-2 erg/s) elliptical galaxies (OLEGs) in our 160 square degree ROSAT PSPC survey. The extent of their X-ray emission, total X-ray luminosity, total mass, and mass of the hot gas in these systems correspond to poor clusters, and the optical luminosity of the central galaxies (M_R<-22.5 + 5 lg h) is comparable to that of cluster cDs. However, there are no detectable fainter galaxy concentrations around the central elliptical. The mass-to-light ratio within the radius of detectable X-ray emission is in the range 250-450 Msun/Lsun, which is 2-3 times higher than typically found in clusters or groups. These objects can be the result of galaxy merging within a group. However, their high M/L values are difficult to explain in this scenario. OLEGs must have been undisturbed for a very long time, which makes them the ultimate examples of systmes in hydrostatic equilibrium. The number density of OLEGs is n=2.4(+3.1-1.2}x10**-7 (h/0.5)**-3 Mpc**-3 at the 90% confidence. They comprise 20% of all clusters and groups of comparable X-ray luminosity, and nearly all galaxies brighter than M_R=-22.5. The estimated contirubution of OLEGs to the total mass density in the Universe is close to that of T>7 keV clusters.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, uses emulateapj.sty, submitted to ApJ Letter