All Keynesians now? Public support for countercyclical government borrowing

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, macroeconomic policy returned to the political agenda, and the influence of Keynesian ideas about fiscal stimulus rose (and then fell) in expert circles. Much less is known, however, about whether and when Keynesian prescriptions for countercyclical spending have any support among the general public. We use a survey experiment, fielded twice, to recover the extent to which UK respondents hold such countercyclical attitudes. Our results indicate that public opinion was countercyclical—Keynesian—in 2016. We then use Eurobarometer data to estimate the same basic parameter for the population for the period 2010–2017. The observational results validate our experimental findings for the later period, but also provide evidence that the UK population held procyclical views at the start of the period. Thus, there appear to be important dynamics in public opinion on a key macroeconomic policy issue

Are Policy Analogies Persuasive? The Household Budget Analogy and Public Support for Austerity

Public opinion on complex policy questions is shaped by the ways in which elites simplify the issues. Given the prevalence of metaphor and analogy as tools for cognitive problem solving, the deployment of analogies is often proposed as a tool for this kind of influence. For instance, a prominent explanation for the acceptance of austerity is that voters understand government deficits through an analogy to household borrowing. Indeed, there are theoretical reasons to think the household finance analogy represents a most likely case for the causal influence of analogical reasoning on policy preferences. This article examines this best-case scenario using original survey data from the United Kingdom. It reports observational and experimental analyses that find no evidence of causation running from the household analogy to preferences over the government budget. Rather, endorsement of the analogy is invoked ex post to justify support for fiscal consolidation

Diffusion and Transport Coefficients in Synthetic Opals

Opals are structures composed of the closed packing of spheres in the size range of nano-to-micro meter. They are sintered to create small necks at the points of contact. We have solved the diffusion problem in such structures. The relation between the diffusion coefficient and the termal and electrical conductivity makes possible to estimate the transport coefficients of opal structures. We estimate this changes as function of the neck size and the mean-free path of the carriers. The theory presented is also applicable to the diffusion problem in other periodic structures.Comment: Submitted to PR

The Change of the Vessel Markings by Ligation of the Branch of the Pulmonary Artery

In relation with the collapse therapy of the lung, I observed the change of vessel markings of the lobe when the secondary atrophy of the lung occurs by ligation of pulmonary artery. Using a cat weighing 2-3 kg, I obtained specimens by infusing dyes in a living cat at various periods after operation. The results were as follows. 1) There were observed no dangerous symptoms by the ligation of the branch of the pulmonary artery. The necrosis of the ligated lobe did not occur. 2) Directly after the ligation there occurs a formation of a collateral pathway by a capillary communication from the vessels of the bronchial wall which extends to the wall of the alveolus, then by the newly built vessels which came outside the lobe through the adhesion with the peripheral area of it. 3) By ligation a thrombus will be formed in the pulmonary artery but a circulating pathway can be noticed inside the thrombus. This is considered to be a circulating pathway retrogradely to the pulmonary artery through the capillary net work of the alveolus wall by the vessels of the bronchial walls and the vessels which invaded from the outside of the lobe through the adhering portion. A week after the ligation the thrombus is nearly absorbed and the recovery of the circulation inside the pulmonary artery can be noticed. 4) The change of the lobe which occurs by the ligation of the branch of the pulmonary artery can be applied clinically

Helping to distinguish primary from secondary transfer events for trace DNA.

DNA is routinely recovered in criminal investigations. The sensitivity of laboratory equipment and DNA profiling kits means that it is possible to generate DNA profiles from very small amounts of cellular material. As a consequence, it has been shown that DNA we detect may not have arisen from a direct contact with an item, but rather through one or more intermediaries. Naturally the questions arising in court, particularly when considering trace DNA, are of how DNA may have come to be on an item. While scientists cannot directly answer this question, forensic biological results can help in discriminating between alleged activities. Much experimental research has been published showing the transfer and persistence of DNA under varying conditions, but as of yet the results of these studies have not been combined to deal with broad questions about transfer mechanisms. In this work we use published data and Bayesian networks to develop a statistical logical framework by which questions of transfer mechanism can be approached probabilistically. We also identify a number of areas where further work could be carried out in order to improve our knowledge base when helping to address questions about transfer mechanisms. Finally, we apply the constructed Bayesian network to ground truth known data to determine if, with current knowledge, there is any power in DNA quantities to distinguish primary and secondary transfer events

Present status of the nonstrange and other flavor partners of the exotic Theta+ baryon

Given the existing empirical information about the exotic Theta+ baryon, we analyze possible properties of its SU(3)F-partners, paying special attention to the nonstrange member of the antidecuplet N*. The modified piN partial-wave analysis presents two candidate masses, 1680 MeV and 1730 MeV. In both cases, the N* should be rather narrow and highly inelastic. Our results suggest several directions for experimental studies that may clarify properties of the antidecuplet baryons, and structure of their mixing with other baryons. Recent experimental evidence from the GRAAL and STAR Collaborations could be interpreted as observations of a candidate for the Theta+ nonstrange partner.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, talk given at the Topical Group on Hadron Physics (Fermilab, Oct. 24-26, 2004

Measuring Temperature Gradients over Nanometer Length Scales

When a quantum dot is subjected to a thermal gradient, the temperature of electrons entering the dot can be determined from the dot's thermocurrent if the conductance spectrum and background temperature are known. We demonstrate this technique by measuring the temperature difference across a 15 nm quantum dot embedded in a nanowire. This technique can be used when the dot's energy states are separated by many kT and will enable future quantitative investigations of electron-phonon interaction, nonlinear thermoelectric effects, and the effciency of thermoelectric energy conversion in quantum dots.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

Discussion on how to implement a verbal scale in a forensic laboratory: benefits, pitfalls and suggestions to avoid misunderstandings

In a recently published guideline for evaluative reporting in forensic science, the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI) recommended the use of the likelihood ratio for the measurement of the value of forensic results. As a device to communicate the probative value of the results, the ENFSI guideline mentions the possibility to define and use a verbal scale, which should be unified within a forensic institution. This paper summarizes discussions held between scientists of our institution to develop and implement such a verbal scale. It intends to contribute to general discussions likely to be faced by any forensic institution that engages in continuous monitoring and improving of their evaluation and reporting format. We first present published arguments in favour of the use of such verbal qualifiers. We emphasize that verbal qualifiers do not replace the use of numbers to evaluate forensic findings, but are useful to communicate the probative value, since the weight of evidence in terms of likelihood ratio are still apprehended with difficulty by both the forensic scientists, especially in absence of hard data, and the recipient of information. We further present arguments that support the development of the verbal scale we propose. Recognising the limits of the use of such a verbal scale, we then discuss its disadvantages: it may lead to the spurious view according to which the value of the observations made in a given case is relative to other cases. Verbal qualifiers are also prone to misunderstandings and cannot be coherently combined with other evidence. We therefore recommend not using the verbal qualifier alone in a written statement. While scientists should only report on the probability of the findings - and not on the probability of the propositions, which are the duty of the Court - we suggest showing examples to let the recipient of information understand how the scientific evidence affects the probabilities of the propositions. To avoid misunderstandings, we also advise to mention in the statement what the results do not mean. Finally, we are of the opinion that if experts were able to coherently articulate numbers, and if recipients of information could properly handle such numbers, then verbal qualifiers could be abandoned completely. At that time, numerical expressions of probative value will be appropriately understood, as other numerical measures that most of us understand without the need of any further explanation, such as expressions for length or temperature

Discovery of a New Nearby Star

We report the discovery of a nearby star with a very large proper motion of 5.06 +/- 0.03 arcsec/yr. The star is called SO025300.5+165258 and referred to herein as HPMS (high proper motion star). The discovery came as a result of a search of the SkyMorph database, a sensitive and persistent survey that is well suited for finding stars with high proper motions. There are currently only 7 known stars with proper motions > 5 arcsec/yr. We have determined a preliminary value for the parallax of 0.43 +/- 0.13 arcsec. If this value holds our new star ranks behind only the Alpha Centauri system (including Proxima Centauri) and Barnard's star in the list of our nearest stellar neighbors. The spectrum and measured tangential velocity indicate that HPMS is a main-sequence star with spectral type M6.5. However, if our distance measurement is correct, the HPMS is underluminous by 1.2 +/- 0.7 mag.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to ApJ Letter