Liquidity forecasting

When central banks enter into transactions to implement their monetary policy, they necessarily make use of their own balance sheets. Whether they are undertaking open market operations (OMO) to inject or drain funds from the banking system, or allowing the banks to use standing facilities to borrow or deposit funds, the central bank’s balance sheet will be impacted: the funds in question are commercial bank balances held at the central bank. Ideally, operations undertaken to implement policy should have a predictable impact on the economy, via the banking system. This means that the central bank needs to know the context in which it is operating: what is the current availability of commercial bank balances compared with the level of demand, and how is this expected to change in the near term? An accurate current picture and good forecast of the central bank’s likely future balance sheet is required. The same information on the central bank’s balance sheet is also needed if the central bank wishes to manage liquidity pro-actively. Most central banks do, whether it is to avoid a shortage of liquidity impacting on the payment system, or an excess impacting short-term yields and/or the exchange rate. This Handbook examines the issues involved in forecasting the central bank’s balance sheet. This is normally referred to as ‘liquidity forecasting’ since the item on the balance sheet which central banks typically try to manage is commercial banks balances, a subset of high-powered liquidity.Liquidity forecasting

Central bank management of surplus liquidity

Following a CCBS seminar in London, in February 2006, on the subject of central bank management of surplus liquidity, participants were invited to contribute to a collection of papers - case-studies of how a range of central banks around the world have tackled or are tackling the issues which arise from excess liquidity in the banking system. One of the aims was to produce something quite quickly. Much more remains to be said about the management of excess liquidity than is covered in this volume; but we hope that it will prove useful material to others who are addressing the same issues. Interested readers are also referred to the CCBS Lecture Series no. 3: “Surplus Liquidity: Implications for Central Banks”, by Joe Ganley.Central Bank,Management, Surplus, Liquidity

Three-axis adjustable loading structure

A three axis adjustable loading structure for testing the movable surfaces of aircraft by applying pressure, is described. The device has three electric drives where the wall angle, horizontal position, and vertical position of the test device can be rapidly and accurately positioned

A Behavioral Approach to Compliance: OSHA Enforcement's Impact on Workplace Accidents

This study test for effects of OSHA enforcement, using data on injuries and OSHA inspections for 6,842 manufacturing plants between 1979 and 1985. We use measures of general deterrence (expected inspections at plants like this one) and specific deterrence (actual inspections at this plant). Both measures of deterrence are found to affect accidents, with a 10% increase in inspections with penalties predicted to reduce accidents by 2%. The existence of specific deterrence effects, the importance of lagged effects, the asymmetrical effects of probability and amount of penalty on accidents, and the tendency of injury rates to self-correct over a few years support a behavioral model of the firm's response to enforcement rather than the traditional expected penalty' model of deterrence theory.

Developing financial markets

Central banks have an interest in well-functioning money markets, foreign exchange markets, and secondary markets for government securities. Efficient financial markets support both the monetary stability and financial stability goals of the central bank; and more broadly should benefit economic development. Well-functioning money markets support the transmission of an interest-rate based monetary policy and can provide information to the central bank. Liquid foreign exchange markets can help to stabilise the exchange rate and reduce transaction costs in cross-border trade and transfers. The development of these markets will support the later introduction of related financial markets such as repo and derivatives, which should in turn lead to improved risk management and financial stability, thereby enhancing economic welfare. Liquidity and price stability in short-term interest rate markets can support market-making, and thus liquidity in the securities markets. This in turn should reduce the cost of issuance for the government and other fixed-interest issuers. Indeed the secondary market for government securities may act as a catalyst for wider fixed income securities markets development: its yield curve is the benchmark for the pricing of the private sector credit. The advancement of these markets should be accompanied by the development of the appropriate market infrastructure such as robust payment and settlement systems and supportive legal framework. Many developing economies are characterised by illiquidity in these core markets, and in most cases a surplus of central bank money, in the form of excess commercial bank balances with the central bank. This handbook will look at what the central bank, and the Ministry of Finance as issuer of government securities, could do (and in some cases should not do) in support of the development of these markets.Developing financial markets

Advanced grid authorisation using semantic technologies - AGAST

Collaborative research requires flexible and fine-grained access control, beyond the common all-or-nothing access based purely on authentication. Existing systems can be hard to use, and do not lend themselves naturally to federation. We present an access-control architecture which builds on RDFs natural strength as an integration framework, which uses RDF scavenged from X.509 certificates, and policies expressed as ontologies and SPARQL queries, to provide flexible and distributed access control. We describe initial implementations

Semantic security: specification and enforcement of semantic policies for security-driven collaborations

Collaborative research can often have demands on finer-grained security that go beyond the authentication-only paradigm as typified by many e-Infrastructure/Grid based solutions. Supporting finer-grained access control is often essential for domains where the specification and subsequent enforcement of authorization policies is needed. The clinical domain is one area in particular where this is so. However it is the case that existing security authorization solutions are fragile, inflexible and difficult to establish and maintain. As a result they often do not meet the needs of real world collaborations where robustness and flexibility of policy specification and enforcement, and ease of maintenance are essential. In this paper we present results of the JISC funded Advanced Grid Authorisation through Semantic Technologies (AGAST) project (www.nesc.ac.uk/hub/projects/agast) and show how semantic-based approaches to security policy specification and enforcement can address many of the limitations with existing security solutions. These are demonstrated into the clinical trials domain through the MRC funded Virtual Organisations for Trials and Epidemiological Studies (VOTES) project (www.nesc.ac.uk/hub/projects/votes) and the epidemiological domain through the JISC funded SeeGEO project (www.nesc.ac.uk/hub/projects/seegeo)

Icing Characteristics and Anti-Icing Heat Requirements for Hollow and Ternally Modified Gas-Heated Inlet Guide Vanes

A two-dimensional inlet-guide-vane cascade was investigated to determine the effects of ice formations on the pressure losses across the guide vanes and to evaluate the heated gas flow and temperature required to prevent Icing at various conditions. A gas flow of approximately 0.4 percent of the inlet-air flow was necessary for anti-icing a hollow guide-vane stage at an inlet-gas temperature of 500 F under the following icing conditions: air velocity, 280 miles per hour; water content, 0.9 gram per cubic meter; and Inlet-air static temperature, 00 F. Also presented are the anti-icing gas flows required with modifications of the hollow Internal gas passage, which show heatinput savings greater than 50 percent

Effects of digital approximation in statistical estimation Final technical report

Digital approximation in statistical estimatio