The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

A Big Data Smart Agricultural System: Recommending Optimum Fertilisers For Crops

Nutrients are important to promote plant growth and nutrient deficiency is the primary factor limiting crop production. However, excess fertilisers can also have a negative impact on crop quality and yield, cause an increase in pollution and decrease producer profit. Hence, determining the suitable quantities of fertiliser for every crop is very useful. Currently, the agricultural systems with internet of things make very large data volumes. Exploiting agricultural Big Data will help to extract valuable information. However, designing and implementing a large scale agricultural data warehouse are very challenging. The data warehouse is a key module to build a smart crop system to make proficient agronomy recommendations. In our paper, an electronic agricultural record (EAR) is proposed to integrate many separate datasets into a unified dataset. Then, to store and manage the agricultural Big Data, we built an agricultural data warehouse based on Hive and Elasticsearch. Finally, we applied some statistical methods based on our data warehouse to extract fertiliser information such as a case study. These statistical methods propose the recommended quantities of fertiliser components across a wide range of environmental and crop management conditions, such as nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) for the top ten most popular crops in EU

Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough

Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence

Dynamics and risk of transmission of bovine tuberculosis in the emerging dairy regions of Ethiopia

The Ethiopian government has several initiatives to expand and intensify the dairy industry; however, the risk of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) spread is a challenge. To assess the rate of expansion and risk factors for transmission of bTB within-herds, we carried out a repeated cross-sectional survey at two time points, 2016/17 and 2018, in three regional cities, namely, Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle, representing the emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia. The total number of herds involved was 128, comprising an average of 2303 cattle in each round. The Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test was used to identify reactor status and data on herd-level risk factors were collected using a structured questionnaire. In the first survey, the apparent prevalence of bTB, as measured by the SICCT test, was 4.5% (95% CI 3.7-5.4%) at the individual animal-level and 24% (95% CI 17.5-32%) at the herd-level. There was no statistically significant change in the overall apparent prevalence or regional distribution at the second survey, consistent with the infection being endemic. The incidence rate was estimated at 3.6 (95% CI 2.8-4.5) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.0-12.6) cases/100 cattle (or herd)-years at the animal- and herd-levels, respectively. Risk factors significantly associated with the within-herd transmission of bTB were age group and within-herd apparent prevalence at the start of the observation period. We noted that farmers voluntarily took steps to remove reactor cattle from their herds as a consequence of the information shared after the first survey. Removal of reactors between surveys was associated with a reduced risk of transmission within these herds. However, with no regulatory barriers to the sale of reactor animals, such actions could potentially lead to further spread between herds. We therefore advocate the importance of setting up regulations and then establishing a systematic bTB surveillance programme to monitor the impact prior to implementing any control measures in Ethiopia

A three-dimensional model of primary bovine endometrium using an electrospun scaffold

Endometrial stromal and epithelial cell function is typically studied in vitro using standard two-dimensional monocultures, but these cultures fail to reflect the complex three-dimensional (3D) architecture of tissue. A 3D model of bovine endometrium that reflects the architectural arrangement of in vivo tissue would beneficially assist the study of tissue function. An electrospun polyglycolide (PGA) scaffold was selected to grow a 3D model of primary bovine endometrial epithelial and stromal cells, that reflects the architecture of the endometrium for the study of pathophysiology. Electrospun scaffolds were seeded with stromal and epithelial cells, and growth was assessed using histological techniques. Prostaglandin E2 and prostaglandin F2α responsiveness of endometrial scaffold constructs was tested using oxytocin plus arachidonic acid (OT + AA) or lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Stromal and epithelial cells growing on the electrospun scaffold had an architectural arrangement that mimicked whole tissue, deposited fibronectin, had appropriate expression of vimentin and cytokeratin and were responsive to OT + AA and LPS, as measured by prostaglandin accumulation. In conclusion, a functional 3D model of stromal and epithelial cells was developed using a PGA electrospun scaffold which may be used to study endometrial pathophysiology

Engineering the Redox Potential over a Wide Range within a New Class of FeS Proteins

Abstract: MitoNEET is a newly discovered mitochondrial protein and a target of the TZD class of antidiabetes drugs. MitoNEET is homodimeric with each protomer binding a [2Fe-2S] center through a rare 3-Cys and 1-His coordination geometry. Both the fold and the coordination of the [2Fe-2S] centers suggest that it could have novel properties compared to other known [2Fe-2S] proteins. We tested the robustness of mitoNEET to mutation and the range over which the redox potential (EM) could be tuned. We found that the protein could tolerate an array of mutations that modified the EM of the [2Fe-2S] center over a range of ∼700 mV, which is the largest EM range engineered in an FeS protein and, importantly, spans the cellular redox range (+200 to-300 mV). These properties make mitoNEET potentially useful for both physiological studies and industrial applications as a stable, water-soluble, redox agent

School's Out: Seasonal Variation in the Movement Patterns of School Children.

School children are core groups in the transmission of many common infectious diseases, and are likely to play a key role in the spatial dispersal of disease across multiple scales. However, there is currently little detailed information about the spatial movements of this epidemiologically important age group. To address this knowledge gap, we collaborated with eight secondary schools to conduct a survey of movement patterns of school pupils in primary and secondary schools in the United Kingdom. We found evidence of a significant change in behaviour between term time and holidays, with term time weekdays characterised by predominately local movements, and holidays seeing much broader variation in travel patterns. Studies that use mathematical models to examine epidemic transmission and control often use adult commuting data as a proxy for population movements. We show that while these data share some features with the movement patterns reported by school children, there are some crucial differences between the movements of children and adult commuters during both term-time and holidays.AJK was supported by the Medical Research Council (fellowship MR/K021524/1, http://www.mrc.ac.uk/) and the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (http://www.fic.nih.gov/about/staff/pages​/epidemiology-population.aspx#rapidd). AJKC was supported by the Alborada Trust (http://www.alboradatrust.com/). KTDE was supported by the NIHR (CDF-2011-04- 019, http://www.nihr.ac.uk/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.This is the final version. It was first published by PLOS at http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0128070#

Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza

Patterns of social mixing are key determinants of epidemic spread. Here we present the results of an internet-based social contact survey completed by a cohort of participants over 9,000 times between July 2009 and March 2010, during the 2009 H1N1v influenza epidemic. We quantify the changes in social contact patterns over time, finding that school children make 40% fewer contacts during holiday periods than during term time. We use these dynamically varying contact patterns to parameterise an age-structured model of influenza spread, capturing well the observed patterns of incidence; the changing contact patterns resulted in a fall of approximately 35% in the reproduction number of influenza during the holidays. This work illustrates the importance of including changing mixing patterns in epidemic models. We conclude that changes in contact patterns explain changes in disease incidence, and that the timing of school terms drove the 2009 H1N1v epidemic in the UK. Changes in social mixing patterns can be usefully measured through simple internet-based surveys