Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score

Aims Deciding to stop or continue anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after initial treatment is challenging, as individual risks of recurrence and bleeding are heterogeneous. The present study aimed to develop and externally validate models for predicting 5-year risks of recurrence and bleeding in patients with VTE without cancer who completed at least 3 months of initial treatment, which can be used to estimate individual absolute benefits and harms of extended anticoagulation. Methods and results Competing risk-adjusted models were derived to predict recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding (non-major and major) using 14 readily available patient characteristics. The models were derived from combined individual patient data from the Bleeding Risk Study, Hokusai-VTE, PREFER-VTE, RE-MEDY, and RE-SONATE (n = 15,141, 220 recurrences, 189 bleeding events). External validity was assessed in the Danish VTE cohort, EINSTEIN-CHOICE, GARFIELD-VTE, MEGA, and Tromsø studies (n = 59 257, 2283 recurrences, 3335 bleeding events). Absolute treatment effects were estimated by combining the models with hazard ratios from trials and meta-analyses. External validation in different settings showed agreement between predicted and observed risks up to 5 years, with C-statistics ranging from 0.48–0.71 (recurrence) and 0.61–0.68 (bleeding). In the Danish VTE cohort, 5-year risks ranged from 4% to 19% for recurrent VTE and 1% –19% for bleeding. Conclusion The VTE-PREDICT risk score can be applied to estimate the effect of extended anticoagulant treatment for individual patients with VTE and to support shared decision-making

Maternal mortality related to pulmonary embolism in the United States, 2003–2020

BACKGROUND - Pulmonary embolism is a leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality in Western countries. In the United States, pulmonary embolism–related mortality rates have plateaued in the general population after an initial decrease in the past 20 years. OBJECTIVE - This study aimed to describe the changes in pulmonary embolism–related maternal mortality rates in the United States over the past 2 decades. STUDY DESIGN - In this epidemiologic study of public vital registration data (death certificates encompassing underlying and contributing causes of death) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Multiple Cause of Death database (2003–2020), we identified all maternal deaths with a pulmonary embolism code listed in any position of the death certificates. We investigated the changes in annual crude pulmonary embolism–related maternal mortality rates for the years 2003 to 2020, considering the effect of the introduction of the pregnancy checkbox in death certificates on the pulmonary embolism–related maternal mortality rates. RESULTS - Overall, 735 pulmonary embolism–related maternal deaths out of 12,871 total maternal deaths (5.7%) were recorded between 2003 and 2020; the overall pulmonary embolism–related maternal mortality rate was 1.02 (95% confidence interval, 0.95–1.10) per 100,000 live births. The pulmonary embolism–related maternal mortality rate increased from 0.93 in 2003 to 1.96 in 2020; however, when accounting for the implementation of the pregnancy checkbox in the death certificates, the trends in pulmonary embolism–related maternal mortality were largely unchanged from 2003 to 2020. The crude pulmonary embolism–related maternal mortality rates differed across maternal age groups (overall 0.61, 1.09, and 3.83 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births for those aged ≤24, 25–39, and ≥40 years, respectively) and racial/ethnicity groups (2.89, 0.47, 0.77, and 0.63 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births for Black non-Hispanics, other non-Hispanics, White non-Hispanics, and Hispanics, respectively). CONCLUSION - Maternal mortality rates related to pulmonary embolism did not decrease during the period from 2003 to 2020, as opposed to mortality rates related to pulmonary embolism in the general population. More research is required to assess whether improvement in venous thromboembolism prevention and pulmonary embolism diagnosis and management strategies might reduce death owing to pulmonary embolism in this vulnerable population

Prothrombotic genotypes and risk of venous thromboembolism in occult cancer

Background - Studies have reported that the combination of some prothrombotic genotypes and overt cancer yields a synergistic effect on VTE risk. Whether individual prothrombotic genotypes or number of risk alleles in a genetic risk score (GRS) affect VTE risk in occult cancer have not been addressed. The aim of this study was to investigate the joint effect of five prothrombotic genotypes and occult cancer on VTE risk. Methods - Cases with incident VTE (n = 1566) and a subcohort (n = 14,537) were sampled from the Scandinavian Thrombosis and Cancer Cohort (1993–2012). Five single nucleotide polymorphisms previously reported in a GRS were genotyped: ABO (rs8176719), F5 (rs6025), F2 (rs1799963), FGG (rs2066865) and F11 (rs2036914). Hazard ratios (HRs) for VTE by individual SNPs and GRS were estimated according to non-cancer and occult cancer (one year preceding a cancer diagnosis) exposure. Results - Occult cancer occurred in 1817 subjects, and of these, 93 experienced a VTE. The VTE risk was 4-fold higher (HR 4.05, 95% CI 3.28–5.00) in subjects with occult cancer compared with those without cancer. Among subjects with occult cancer, those with VTE had a higher proportion of prothrombotic and advanced cancers than those without VTE. The VTE risk increased according to individual prothrombotic genotypes and GRS in cancer-free subjects, while no such effect was observed in subjects with occult cancer (HR for ≥4 versus ≤1 risk alleles in GRS: 1.14, 95% CI 0.61–2.11). Conclusions - Five well-established prothrombotic genotypes, individually or combined, were not associated with increased risk of VTE in individuals with occult cancer

Impact of incident venous thromboembolism on risk of arterial thrombotic diseases

This is the accepted manuscript version. Published version of the article is available in: Circulation 129(2014) no. 8BACKGROUND: Growing evidence supports an association between venous thromboembolism (VTE) and arterial thrombotic diseases (ie, myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke). We aimed to study the association between VTE and future arterial events and to determine the population attributable risk of arterial events by VTE in a large prospective cohort recruited from the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 1994 to 1995 and 1993 to 1997, 81 687 subjects were included in the Tromsø Study and in the Diet, Cancer and Health Study and followed up to the date of incident venous and arterial events (myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke), death or migration, or to the end of the study period (2010 and 2008, respectively). There were 1208 cases of VTE and 90 subsequent arterial events during a median follow-up of 12.2 years. An association between VTE and future arterial events was found in all women and men aged 65 years. Women <65 years old with VTE had 3.3-fold higher risk of arterial disease (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.69-6.35) compared with women of the same age without VTE. The corresponding hazard ratio in men aged <65 years was 2.06 (95% confidence interval, 1.32-3.20). Only 0.9% of the arterial events were attributed to VTE, and the VTE explained 63.8% of the risk of arterial events among VTE patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings imply that women and young men with VTE have higher risk of arterial thrombotic disease than those without VTE. However, only 1% of the arterial thrombotic events in the population are attributed to VTE

Long-Term Incidence of Venous Thromboembolism in Cancer: The Scandinavian Thrombosis and Cancer Cohort

The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients who survive the first years after a cancer diagnosis after the acute effects of disease and treatment in comparison to a similar background population has been sparsely investigated. The aim of the study was to investigate if incidence rates (IRs) of VTE differed in patients who were alive at least 2 years after a cancer diagnosis without VTE compared with cancer-free references in a population-based cohort study. The study entry was 2 years after a first cancer diagnosis. For each cancer-exposed subject, five reference subjects were identified within the cohort. The IRs were calculated as number of VTEs per 1,000 person years (×10−3 p-y) in total and in distinct cancer types and corresponding reference subjects. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated by Poisson's regression. During a mean follow-up of 5.3 years, 110 VTEs occurred among the 7,288 cancer-exposed subjects and 321 VTEs occurred among the 36,297 identified reference subjects. The IR of VTE was higher for cancer-exposed subjects compared with reference subjects, IRs 3.7 × 10−3 p-y, 95% CI: 3.1 to 4.5 and 1.9 × 10−3 p-y, 95% CI: 1.7 to 2.2, respectively. IRs of VTE in most solid cancer types declined to almost the same level as in the reference subjects 2 years after cancer diagnosis, but remained higher in hematological cancers, IRR 4.0, 95% CI: 2.0 to 7.8

Long-Term Incidence of Venous Thromboembolism in Cancer: The Scandinavian Thrombosis and Cancer Cohort

The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients who survive the first years after a cancer diagnosis after the acute effects of disease and treatment in comparison to a similar background population has been sparsely investigated. The aim of the study was to investigate if incidence rates (IRs) of VTE differed in patients who were alive at least 2 years after a cancer diagnosis without VTE compared with cancer-free references in a population-based cohort study. The study entry was 2 years after a first cancer diagnosis. For each cancer-exposed subject, five reference subjects were identified within the cohort. The IRs were calculated as number of VTEs per 1,000 person years (×10−3 p-y) in total and in distinct cancer types and corresponding reference subjects. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated by Poisson's regression. During a mean follow-up of 5.3 years, 110 VTEs occurred among the 7,288 cancer-exposed subjects and 321 VTEs occurred among the 36,297 identified reference subjects. The IR of VTE was higher for cancer-exposed subjects compared with reference subjects, IRs 3.7 × 10−3 p-y, 95% CI: 3.1 to 4.5 and 1.9 × 10−3 p-y, 95% CI: 1.7 to 2.2, respectively. IRs of VTE in most solid cancer types declined to almost the same level as in the reference subjects 2 years after cancer diagnosis, but remained higher in hematological cancers, IRR 4.0, 95% CI: 2.0 to 7.8