Computing Inferences for Large-Scale Continuous-Time Markov Chains by Combining Lumping with Imprecision

If the state space of a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is too large, making inferences - here limited to determining marginal or limit expectations - becomes computationally infeasible. Fortunately, the state space of such a chain is usually too detailed for the inferences we are interested in, in the sense that a less detailed - smaller - state space suffices to unambiguously formalise the inference. However, in general this so-called lumped state space inhibits computing exact inferences because the corresponding dynamics are unknown and/or intractable to obtain. We address this issue by considering an imprecise continuous-time Markov chain. In this way, we are able to provide guaranteed lower and upper bounds for the inferences of interest, without suffering from the curse of dimensionality.Comment: 9th International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS 2018

Computing inferences for large-scale continuous-time Markov chains by combining lumping with imprecision

If the state space of a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is too large, making inferences—here limited to determining marginal or limit expectations—becomes computationally infeasible. Fortunately, the state space of such a chain is usually too detailed for the inferences we are interested in, in the sense that a less detailed—smaller—state space suffices to unambiguously formalise the inference. However, in general this so-called lumped state space inhibits computing exact inferences because the corresponding dynamics are unknown and/or intractable to obtain. We address this issue by considering an imprecise continuous-time Markov chain. In this way, we are able to provide guaranteed lower and upper bounds for the inferences of interest, without suffering from the curse of dimensionality

Inferring from an imprecise Plackett–Luce model : application to label ranking

Learning ranking models is a difficult task, in which data may be scarce and cautious predictions desirable. To address such issues, we explore the extension of the popular parametric probabilistic Plackett–Luce model, often used to model rankings, to the imprecise setting where estimated parameters are set-valued. In particular, we study how to achieve cautious or conservative inference with it, and illustrate their application on label ranking problems, a specific supervised learning task

Blood Flow and Glucose Metabolism in Stage IV Breast Cancer: Heterogeneity of Response During Chemotherapy

Objective: The purpose of the study was to compare early changes in blood flow (BF) and glucose metabolism (MRglu) in metastatic breast cancer lesions of patients treated with chemotherapy. Methods: Eleven women with stage IV cancer and lesions in breast, lymph nodes, liver, and bone were scanned before treatment and after the first course of chemotherapy. BF, distribution volume of water (Vd), MRglu/BF ratio, MRgluand its corresponding rate constants K1and k3were compared per tumor lesion before and during therapy. Results: At baseline, mean BF and MRgluvaried among different tumor lesions, but mean Vdwas comparable in all lesions. After one course of chemotherapy, mean MRgludecreased in all lesions. Mean BF decreased in breast and node lesions and increased in bone lesions. Vddecreased in breast and nodes, but did not change in bone lesions. The MRglu/BF ratio decreased in breast and bone lesions and increased in node lesions. In patients with multiple tumor lesions BF and MRgluresponse could be very heterogeneous, even within similar types of metastases. BF and MRgluincreased in lesions of patients who experienced early disease progression or showed no response during clinical follow-up. Conclusion: BF and MRgluchanges separately give unique information on different aspects of tumor response to chemotherapy. Changes in BF and MRgluparameters can be remarkably heterogeneous in patients with multiple lesions

The role of chemotherapeutic drugs in the evaluation of breast tumour response to chemotherapy using serial FDG-PET

INTRODUCTION: The aims of this study were to investigate whether drug sequence (docetaxel followed by anthracyclines or the drugs in reverse order) affects changes in the maximal standard uptake volume (SUVmax) on [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) during neoadjuvant chemotherapy in women with locally advanced breast cancer. METHODS: Women were randomly assigned to receive either drug sequence, and FDG-PET scans were taken at baseline, after four cycles and after eight cycles of chemotherapy. Tumour response to chemotherapy was evaluated based on histology from a surgical specimen collected upon completion of chemotherapy. RESULTS: Sixty women were enrolled into the study. Thirty-one received docetaxel followed by anthracyclines (Arm A) and 29 received drugs in the reverse order (Arm B). Most women (83%) had ductal carcinoma and 10 women (17%) had lobular or lobular/ductal carcinoma. All but one tumour were downstaged during therapy. Overall, there was no significant difference in response between the two drug regimens. However, women in Arm B who achieved complete pathological response had mean FDG-PET SUVmax reduction of 87.7% after four cycles, in contrast to those who had no or minor pathological response. These women recorded mean SUVmax reductions of only 27% (P < 0.01). Women in Arm A showed no significant difference in SUVmax response according to pathological response. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and positive and negative predictive values were highest in women in Arm B. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that SUVmax uptake by breast tumours during chemotherapy can be dependent on the drugs used. Care must be taken when interpreting FDG-PET in settings where patients receive varied drug protocols

FDG-PET Parameters as Prognostic Factor in Esophageal Cancer Patients: A Review

Background:18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) has been used extensively to explore whether FDG Uptake can be used to provide prognostic information for esophageal cancer patients. The aim of the present review is to evaluate the literature available to date concerning the potential prognostic value of FDG uptake in esophageal cancer patients, in terms of absolute pretreatment values and of decrease in FDG uptake during or after neoadjuvant therapy. Methods: A computer-aided search of the English language literature concerning esophageal cancer and standardized uptake values was performed. This search focused on clinical studies evaluating the prognostic value of FDG uptake as an absolute value or the decrease in FDG uptake and using overall mortality and/or disease-related mortality as an end point. Results: In total, 31 studies met the predefined criteria. Two main groups were identified based on the tested prognostic parameter: (1) FDG uptake and (2) decrease in FDG uptake. Most studies showed that pretreatment FDG uptake and postneoadjuvant treatment FDG uptake, as absolute values, are predictors for survival in univariate analysis. Moreover, early decrease in FDG uptake during neoadjuvant therapy is predictive for response and survival in most studies described. However, late decrease in FDG uptake after completion of neoadjuvant therapy was predictive for pathological response and survival in only 2 of 6 studies. Conclusions: Measuring decrease in FDG uptake early during neoadjuvant therapy is most appealing, moreover because the observed range of values expressed as relative decrease to discriminate responding from nonresponding patients is very small. At present inter-institutional comparison of results is difficult because several different normalization factors for FDG uptake are in use. Therefore, more research focusing on standardization of protocols and inter-institutional differences should be performed, before a PET-guided algorithm can be universally advocated

FDG PET and PET/CT: EANM procedure guidelines for tumour PET imaging: version 1.0

The aim of this guideline is to provide a minimum standard for the acquisition and interpretation of PET and PET/CT scans with [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG). This guideline will therefore address general information about [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET/CT) and is provided to help the physician and physicist to assist to carrying out, interpret, and document quantitative FDG PET/CT examinations, but will concentrate on the optimisation of diagnostic quality and quantitative information

Unenhanced CT imaging is highly sensitive to exclude pheochromocytoma: A multicenter study

Background: A substantial proportion of all pheochromocytomas is currently detected during the evaluation of an adrenal incidentaloma. Recently, it has been suggested that biochemical testing to rule out pheochromocytoma is unnecessary in case of an adrenal incidentaloma with an unenhanced attenuation value ≤10Hounsfield Units (HU) at computed tomography (CT). Objectives: We aimed to determine the sensitivity of the 10HU threshold value to exclude a pheochromocytoma. Methods: Retrospective multicenter study with systematic reassessment of preoperative unenhanced CT scans performed in patients in whom a histopathologically proven pheochromocytoma had been diagnosed. Unenhanced attenuation values were determined independently by two experienced radiologists. Sensitivity of the 10HU threshold was calculated, and interobserver consistency was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Results: 214 patients were identified harboring a total number of 222 pheochromocytomas. Maximum tumor diameter was 51 (39–74)mm. The mean attenuation value within the region of interest was 36±10HU. Only one pheochromocytoma demonstrated an attenuation value ≤10HU, resulting in a sensitivity of 99.6% (95% CI: 97.5–99.9). ICC was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.75–0.86) with a standard error of measurement of 7.3HU between observers. Conclusion: The likelihood of a pheochromocytoma with an unenhanced attenuation value ≤10HU on CT is very low. The interobserver consistency in attenuation measurement is excellent. Our study supports the recommendation that in patients with an adrenal incidentaloma biochemical testing for ruling out pheochromocytoma is only indicated in adrenal tumors with an unenhanced attenuation value >10HU

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy plus surgery versus active surveillance for oesophageal cancer: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial

Background: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) plus surgery is a standard treatment for locally advanced oesophageal cancer. With this treatment, 29% of patients have a pathologically complete response in the resection specimen. This provides the rationale for investigating an active surveillance approach. The aim of this study is to assess the (cost-)effectiveness of active surveillance vs. standard oesophagectomy after nCRT for oesophageal cancer. Methods: This is a phase-III multi-centre, stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial. A total of 300 patients with clinically complete response (cCR, i.e. no local or disseminated disease proven by histology) after nCRT will be randomised to show non-inferiority of active surveillance to standard oesophagectomy (non-inferiority margin 15%, intra-correlation coefficient 0.02, power 80%, 2-sided α 0.05, 12% drop-out). Patients will undergo a first clinical response evaluation (CRE-I) 4-6 weeks after nCRT, consisting of endoscopy with bite-on-bite biopsies of the primary tumour site and other suspected lesions. Clinically complete responders will undergo a second CRE (CRE-II), 6-8 weeks after CRE-I. CRE-II will include 18F-FDG-PET-CT, followed by endoscopy with bite-on-bite biopsies and ultra-endosonography plus fine needle aspiration of suspected lymph nodes and/or PET- positive lesions. Patients with cCR at CRE-II will be assigned to oesophagectomy (first phase) or active surveillance (second phase of the study). The duration of the first phase is determined randomly over the 12 centres, i.e., stepped-wedge cluster design. Patients in the active surveillance arm will undergo diagnostic evaluations similar to CRE-II at 6/9/12/16/20/24/30/36/48 and 60 months after nCRT. In this arm, oesophagectomy will be offered only to patients in whom locoregional regrowth is highly suspected or proven, without distant dissemination. The main study parameter is overall survival; secondary endpoints include percentage of patients who do not undergo surgery, quality of life, clinical irresectability (cT4b) rate, radical resection rate, postoperative complications, progression-free survival, distant dissemination rate, and cost-effectiveness. We hypothesise that active surveillance leads to non-inferior survival, improved quality of life and a reduction in costs, compared to standard oesophagectomy. Discussion: If active surveillance and surgery as needed after nCRT leads to non-inferior survival compared to standard oesophagectomy, this organ-sparing approach can be implemented as a standard of care