Improving the Turbulence Coupling between High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models

For the modelling of the transport and diffusion of atmospheric pollutants during accidental releases, sophisticated emergency response systems are used. These modelling systems usually consist of three main parts. The atmospheric flow conditions can be simulated with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The evolution of the pollutant cloud is described with a dispersion model of variable complexity. The NWP and the dispersion models have to be coupled with a so-called meteorological pre-processor. This means that all the necessary – in most cases turbulence related – variables which are not available from the standard output of the NWP model have to be diagnosed. The main difficulty of the turbulence coupling is that these subgrid scale variables of NWP models are not routinely verified and thus little is known concerning their quality and impact on dispersion processes. The general aim of the present work is to better understand and improve this coupling mechanism. For this purpose all the three main components of the emergency response system of MeteoSwiss are carefully evaluated and possible improvement strategies are suggested. In the first part, the NWP component of the system, namely the COSMO model, is investigated focusing on the model performance in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). Three case studies, representing both unstable and stable situations, are analyzed and the COSMO simulations are validated with turbulence measurements and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) data. It is shown that the COSMO model is able to reproduce the main evolution of the boundary layer in dry convective situations with the operational parameter setting. However, it is found that the COSMO model tends to simulate a too moist and too cold PBL with shallower PBL heights than observed. During stable conditions the operational parameter setting has to be significantly modified (e.g., the minimum diffusion coefficient) to obtain a good model performance. The turbulence scheme of COSMO, which carries a prognostic equation for Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE), is studied in detail to understand the shortcomings of the simulations. The turbulent transport term (third order moment) in the TKE equation is found to be significantly underestimated by the COSMO model during unstable situations. This results in inaccurate TKE profiles and hence missing entrainment fluxes at the top of the PBL. A solution to increase the TKE transport in the PBL is proposed in the present work and evaluated during a three-month continuous period. While improving the TKE profile substantially, the modification is demonstrated to not impair other model output characteristics. The second component of the emergency response system, namely the meteorological pre-processor, is also validated on case studies and a continuous period. The main objective of this analysis is to compare the currently operational coupling approach, which is based on the direct usage of the prognostic TKE from the COSMO model, to a classical approach based on similarity theory considerations, thereby using turbulence measurements on the one hand and LES data on the other hand. To be able to use similarity theory approaches for the determination of turbulence characteristics, the PBL height has first to be diagnosed from the NWP model. In the present study, several approaches for the determination of PBL height have been implemented and validated with radio sounding measurements. Based on the verification results and the operational convenience, the method based on the bulk Richardson number method has been chosen for the diagnosis of the PBL height. Validation results of post-diagnosed turbulence characteristics show that during convective situations, the similarity approach tends to overestimate the turbulence intensity, while the approach based on the direct usage of TKE yields more accurate results. For stable conditions the different approaches are closer to each other and both give reasonable predictions. It is found that the main drawback of the direct approach is the isotropic assumption in the horizontal direction. A new hybrid method is proposed which uses similarity considerations for the partitioning of horizontal TKE between along-wind and cross-wind directions. In the last part, pollutant dispersion in complex terrain is studied using a new scaling approach for TKE that is suited for steep and narrow Alpine valleys. This scaling approach is introduced in the interface between COSMO and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM), and its results are compared to those of a classical similarity theory approach and to the operational coupling type, which uses the TKE from the COSMO model directly. For the validation of the modelling system, the TRANSALP-89 tracer experiment is used, which was conducted in highly complex terrain in southern Switzerland. The ability of the COSMO model to simulate the valley-wind system is assessed with several meteorological surface stations. The dispersion simulation is evaluated with the measurements from 25 surface samplers. The sensitivity of the modelling system towards the soil moisture, horizontal grid resolution, and boundary layer height determination is investigated. It is shown that if the flow field is correctly reproduced, the new scaling approach improves the tracer concentration simulation compared to the classical coupling methods

Application of European numerical weather prediction models for hydrological purposes

Nowadays, hydrological forecasts are based on wide range of meteorological inputs, including observations and forecasts. In this paper four main areas are covered. First of all, milestones covering last four decades from usage of a simple statistical method to regional limited area modeling are summarized. Then an overview of the main activities of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is given. Usage of ensemble forecasts for providing uncertainty is getting larger and larger attention for hydrological applications too. Benefits of a locally developed new tool, the ensemble calibration method based on reforecast model climate is given in the third part. Finally, local developments on regional hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models are shown. It is shown that a high resolution limited area non-hydrostatic model can predict summer heavy precipitation more accurately

Comparing global and regional downscaled NWP models for irradiance and photovoltaic power forecasting: ECMWF versus AROME

Inspecting the literature, much effort has been placed on the verification of irradiance forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, as such forecasts are thought to have profound implications on the photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts, which in turn affects grid operators' confidence in integrating such power into the electricity grid. However, perhaps due to the proprietary nature of PV plants and lack of access to state-of-the-art NWP model output, only few have had the chance to conduct head-to-head comparisons of global mesoscale and regional downscaled NWP models, in terms of how their irradiance forecast inaccuracies propagate to PV power forecasts. In this regard, this work presents such a study, in which irradiance and PV power forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' High-Resolution (HRES) and Météo-France's Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) models are thoroughly verified against the ground-based measurements from 32 research-grade radiometry stations and 94 actual PV plants in Hungary. A wide range of techniques and case studies concerning verification is herein considered, including variance ratio analysis, Murphy–Winkler decomposition, point-versus-areal verification, and seasonal verification. Despite that the results are too numerous to be summarized in a few sentences, the overarching observation from the verification exercise is that the performance of irradiance forecasts can only be used to infer that of PV power forecasts to a certain extent, which contrasts the conventional wisdom

Recent developments in the data assimilation of AROME/HU numerical weather prediction model

A local three-dimensional variational data assimilation (DA) system was implemented operationally in AROME/HU (Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale) non-hydrostatic mesoscale model at the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ) in 2013. In the first version, rapid update cycling (RUC) approach was employed with 3-hour frequency in local upper-air DA using conventional observations only. Optimal interpolation method was adopted for the surface data assimilation later in 2016. This paper describes the current developments showing the impact of more conventional and remote-sensing observations assimilated in this system, which reveals the benefit of additional local high-resolution observations. Furthermore, it is shown that an hourly assimilation-forecast cycle outperforms the 3-hourly updated system in our DA. Besides the upper-air assimilation developments, a simplified extended Kalman filter (SEKF) was also tested for surface data assimilation, showing promising performance on both the analyses and the forecasts of AROME/HU system

Interactions between downslope flows and a developing cold-air pool

A numerical model has been used to characterize the development of a region of enhanced cooling in an alpine valley with a width of order (Formula presented.) km, under decoupled stable conditions. The region of enhanced cooling develops largely as a region of relatively dry air which partitions the valley atmosphere dynamics into two volumes, with airflow partially trapped within the valley by a developing elevated inversion. Complex interactions between the region of enhanced cooling and the downslope flows are quantified. The cooling within the region of enhanced cooling and the elevated inversion is almost equally partitioned between radiative and dynamic effects. By the end of the simulation, the different valley atmospheric regions approach a state of thermal equilibrium with one another, though this cannot be said of the valley atmosphere and its external environment.Peer reviewe

Születési sorrend vizsgálata

Szakdolgozatomban a születési sorrendet, hatását vizsgáltam az elsőszülöttek vonatkozásában. Kutatásom arra irányult, hogy megtudjam, miben más az elsőszülött gyermek helyzete, szerepe a családban, hogyan éli meg a testvér érkezését, a testvérféltékenység milyen jelei mutatkoznak. Vizsgáltam a születési sorrend hatását személyiségjegyeik alakulására, a testvérkapcsolatukra, és a szülőkhöz való viszonyukat. Interjúkat készítettem felnőtt elsőszülöttekkel személyiségük, társas kapcsolataik megismerése céljából

Assimilation of Leaf Area Index and Soil Water Index from Satellite Observations in a Land Surface Model in Hungary

In this study, a Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) is applied over the Carpathian Basin at the Hungarian Meteorological Service to monitor the above-ground biomass, surface fluxes (carbon and water), and the associated root-zone soil moisture at the regional scale (spatial resolution of 8 km × 8 km) in quasi-real-time. In this system the SURFEX model is used, which applies the vegetation growth version of the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA-A-gs) photosynthesis scheme to describe the evolution of vegetation. SURFEX is forced using the outputs of the ALADIN numerical weather prediction model run operationally at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. First, SURFEX is run in an open-loop (i.e., no assimilation) mode for the period 2008–2015. Secondly, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) method is used to assimilate Leaf Area Index (LAI) Spot/Vegetation (until May 2014) and PROBA-V (from June 2014) and Soil Water Index (SWI) ASCAT/Metop satellite measurements. The benefit of LDAS is proved over the whole country and to a selected site in West Hungary (Hegyhátsál). It is demonstrated that the EKF can provide useful information both in wet and dry seasons as well. It is shown that the data assimilation is efficient to describe the inter-annual variability of biomass and soil moisture values. The vegetation development and the water and carbon fluxes vary from season to season and LDAS is a capable tool to monitor the variability of these parameters

Improving wintertime low level cloud forecasts in a high resolution numerical weather prediction model

⎯ In this study, the performance of a high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is investigated in a particular weather situation, namely, in winter anticyclonic cases over land with low level clouds and fog. Most NWP models tend to underestimate low level cloudiness during these events which causes the overestimation of daytime temperature. Several sensitivity tests are performed to trace the cause of the erroneous model performance, and it is shown that model microphysics and, in particular, the autoconversion of cloud ice to snow is responsible for the underestimation of cloud cover. A modification is proposed which significantly reduces ice autoconversion and consequently keeps the low level clouds for situations with temperatures below freezing level. The modification is tested on several case studies and also on longer time intervals and proves to be applicable for operational model runs