Asset prices and financial imbalances in CEE countries: macroeconomic risks and monetary strategy

Modern central banks have adopted a ‘risk management’ approach in assessing and presenting risks to macroeconomic stability. This paper seeks to contribute to the improvement of central banks’ current strategies for Central and Eastern European countries, first by assessing the potential size of macroeconomic risks, and secondly by empirically relating these risks to certain selected financial variables. Our results suggest that risks to GDP and the Price Level are significantly higher than commonly supposed based on a normal distribution of their cyclical components. However, relating these risks to the selected financial variables generated mixed results and is rarely significant in economic terms. We conclude that central banks currently risk underestimating the probability of large deviations in GDP and Price Level from their trends. A combination of financial variables and the inclusion of international financial variables could result in more significant results than the ones used separately in this study, when looking for useful indicators of such events.central bank policy, financial imbalances, GDP-at-risk, CPI-at-risk

Labour market institutions in Hungary with a focus on wage and employment flexibility

It is widely believed today, that the operation of the labour markets is influenced by institutional factors, affecting macroeconomic adjustment in response to shocks. In this way, labour market institutions affect both cyclical and long-term growth and inflation performance of an economy. The aim of our paper is to review the operation of Hungarian labour market institutions from the point of view of labour market flexibility and find its place in international comparison in the light of existing stock of knowledge on the subject. We describe the institutional setup of the labour markets through seven dimensions (unemployment generosity, tax wedge, active labour market policies, employment protection legislation, product market regulation, union density and coverage and wage bargaining institutions) for which internationally comparable data are available. We conclude that the Hungarian labour market institutions are rather flexible in EU-comparison. However, tax wedge is high and the active labour market policies still perform poorly, both contributing to weak employment.wage flexibility, unemployment, labour market institutions, product market regulation, policy complementarity.

The expected effect of the euro on the Hungarian monetary transmission

The most important mechanism through which monetary policy affects the real economy in Hungary is the exchange rate channel. With euro adoption, this mechanism will largely disappear and the impact of monetary policy will be transmitted via the interest rate channel, presently seen as rather weak. This has raised concerns that the influence of monetary policy on the real economy in Hungary could be very limited after euro adoption. On top of this, other concerns have been voiced as regards potential asymmetries in the wage-setting behaviour, the exchange rate and credit channels. Based on the experience of today’s euro area participating countries and the structural characteristics of the Hungarian economy, this paper argues that after euro adoption 1) we may expect a broadening of the scope of the interest rate channel of monetary policy after euro adoption, 2) there are no institutional obstacles in the way of the effective functioning of the expectations channel in Hungary 3) substantially different monetary conditions from that in the euro area as a result of a different trade orientation are unlikely, and, finally 4) some asymmetries in the balance sheet channel may continue to exist for some time between Hungary and the core euro area countries but its effect will be significantly smaller after euro zone entry.monetary transmission mechanism, transmission channels, EMU participation.

A lépték szerepe a hatótényezők erősségében avagy a nehézfémek elérhetősége hazai hullámtereken

Környezeti kutatások során a kutatás léptéke erősen befolyásol(hat)ja a kutatás eredményét. Különösen igaz ez a megállapítás, ha a „microcosm” léptéktől több lépésben (plot scale, field scale) kívánunk eljutni a regionális léptékig. Ez a jelenség a nehézfémek elérhetőségével kapcsolatos kutatásokkal kapcsolatban közölt publikációkban is tetten érhető. A különbözőségek gyökere sokszor az eltérő kutatási módszerekben ered. Az eltérő lépték eredménye a különböző „léptékű” hatótényezők használata is. Jelen munkában ezt a „jelenséget” néhány nehézfém által a hullámtereken okozott tényleges környezeti kockázat vizsgálata, ill. a hullámtéri ökotópok nyomelem forgalmának elemzése példáján vizsgáltuk, úgy hogy a „microcosm scale”, ill. „plot scale” tényezőket próbáltuk meg egy „field scale” léptékben végzett kutatásban is alkalmazni

Bevezetés a talajtanba környezettanosoknak

E jegyzet az ELTE TTK Környezettudomány alapszak Talajtan kurzus hallgatóinak készült, ezért a „klasszikus”, Stefanovits professzor által jegyzett Talajtan-nál jóval szűkebb területet fog át, címéből fakadóan csak bevezeti az olvasót e tudományba. A jegyzet kilenc fejezetben tekinti át a talajok a talajok morfológiai és anyagi felépítését, azok fizikai és kémiai tulajdonságait, a bennük lejátszódó fizikai és kémiai folyamatokat, illetve keletkezésük és folyamatosan zajló átalakulásuk mechanizmusait. Külön fejezet tárgyalja a globálisan jellemző talajok földrajzi helyzetét és fejlődésük főbb mozgató rugóit. A természettudományos megközelítés mellett a jegyzet érinti a talajérték meghatározásának közgazdasági problematikáját is

Spatial and temporal pattern of soil pH and Eh and their impact on solute iron content in a wetland (Transdanubia, Hungary)

Land mosaics have direct and indirect influence on chemical reaction and redox condition of soils.The present paper deals with the relationship between some environmental factors (such as soil andvegetation patterns, micro-relief, water regime, temperature and incident solar radiation) and the pH,Eh of soils and solute iron in a headwater wetland in Transdanubia, Hungary. Measurements havebeen taken in four different patches and along their boundaries: sedge (Carex vulpina, Carex riparia,three patches and two species), horsetail (Equisetum arvense), common nettle (Urtica dioica). Thespatial pattern of the studied parameters are influenced by the water regime, micro-topography,climatic conditions and by direct and indirect effects of vegetation. The indirect effect can be theshading, which has influence on soil temperature and on the incident solar radiation (PAR). Rootrespiration and excretion of organic acids appear as direct effects.. There have been measuredindividual pH and Eh characteristic in the studied patches. Soil Eh, pH and solute iron have shownseasonal dynamics. Higher redox potentials (increasingly oxidative conditions) and higher pH valueswere measured between late autumn and early spring. The increasing physiological activity of plantscauses lower pH and Eh and it leads to higher spatial differences. Although temperature is anessential determining factor for Eh and pH, but our results suggest it rather has indirect effectsthrough plants on wetlands

Restauration der Gemeinschaften. Wilhelm Szilasi, der deutsch–ungarische Philosoph

A disszertáció teljes szövege a szerző kérésére könyv formátumban való kiadás miatt nem érhető el. A könyv adatai: Im Schatten Heideggers Einführung zu Leben und Werk von Wilhelm Szilasi Freiburg: Verlag Karl Alber, 2017 ISBN: 978-3-495-48855-

QUALIFICATION OF MEASURING INSTRUMENTS ON THE BASIS OF INFORMATION THEORY

Measuring instruments can be interpreted as tools for gaining information - since taking measurements is in fact gathering information. This way instruments are qualified according to the efficiency of the information gathering process. For this purpose parameters to describe efficiency both in he context of gaining information compared to our a priori knowledge and the efficiency of the sensor to display channel are introduced. The measuring instrument is described as an information transmitting channel and efficiency is described using measures well accepted in information theory (entropy, mutual information, information gain, etc.). The new method has an ability to describe measuring instruments solely on the basis of their potential for providing information and independently of their mechanical structure, working principle. etc. The advantage of the method over conventional ones is that instrument qualification can be based on a principle related more closely to the core function of measuring instruments, that is, gathering information