Beyond LIFO and FIFO: Exploring an Allocation-In-Fraction-Out (AIFO) policy in a two-warehouse inventory model

The classical formulation of a two-warehouse inventory model is often based on the Last-In-First-Out (LIFO) or First-In-First-Out (FIFO) dispatching policy. The LIFO policy relies upon inventory stored in a rented warehouse (RW), with an ample capacity, being consumed first, before depleting inventory of an owned warehouse (OW) that has a limited capacity. Consumption works the other way around for the FIFO policy. In this paper, a new policy entitled “Allocation-In-Fraction-Out (AIFO)” is proposed. Unlike LIFO and FIFO, AIFO implies simultaneous consumption fractions associated with RW and OW. That said, the goods at both warehouses are depleted by the end of the same cycle. This necessitates the introduction of a key performance indicator to trade-off the costs associated with AIFO, LIFO and FIFO. Consequently, three general two-warehouse inventory models for items that are subject to inspection for imperfect quality are developed and compared – each underlying one of the dispatching policies considered. Each sub-replenishment that is delivered to OW and RW incurs a distinct transportation cost and undertakes a 100 per cent screening. The mathematical formulation reflects a diverse range of time-varying forms. The paper provides illustrative examples that analyse the behaviour of deterioration, value of information and perishability in different settings. For perishable products, we demonstrate that LIFO and FIFO may not be the right dispatching policies. Further, relaxing the inherent determinism of the maximum capacity associated with OW, not only produces better results and implies comprehensive learning, but may also suggest outsourcing the inventory holding through vendor managed inventory

Formation of seasonal groups and application of seasonal indices

Estimating seasonal variations in demand is a challenging task faced by many organisations. There may be many stock-keeping units (SKUs) to forecast, but often data histories are short, with very few complete seasonal cycles. It has been suggested in the literature that group seasonal indices (GSI) methods should be used to take advantage of information on similar SKUs. This paper addresses two research questions: (1) how should groups be formed in order to use the GSI methods? and (2) when should the GSI methods and the individual seasonal indices (ISI) method be used? Theoretical results are presented, showing that seasonal grouping and forecasting may be unified, based on a Mean Square Error criterion, and K-means clustering. A heuristic K-means method is presented, which is competitive with the Average Linkage method. It offers a viable alternative to a company’s own grouping method or may be used with confidence if a company lacks a grouping method. The paper gives empirical findings that confirm earlier theoretical results that greater accuracy may be obtained by employing a rule that assigns the GSI method to some SKUs and the ISI method to the remainder

Joint optimisation of inspection maintenance and spare parts provisioning: a comparative study of inventory policies using simulation and survey data

The demand for industrial plant spare parts is driven, at least in part, by maintenance requirements. It is therefore important to jointly optimise planned maintenance and the associated spare parts inventory using the most appropriate maintenance and replenishment policies. In this simulation-based study, we address this challenge in the context of the random failure of parts in service and the replacement of defective parts at inspections of period T. Inspections are modelled using the delay-time concept. A number of simultaneous periodic review and continuous review replenishment policies are compared. A paper making plant provides a real context for the presentation of our ideas. We survey practitioners working with such plant to collect real data that inform the values of parameters in the models. Our simulation results indicate that a periodic review policy with ordering that is twice as frequent as inspection is cost optimal in the context of the plant that we study. For the purpose of comparison, we also present and discuss the characteristics of the various policies considered

Reproducibility in forecasting research

The importance of replication has been recognised across many scientific disciplines. Reproducibility is a necessary condition for replicability, because an inability to reproduce results implies that the methods have not been specified sufficiently, thus precluding replication. This paper describes how two independent teams of researchers attempted to reproduce the empirical findings of an important paper, ‘‘Shrinkage estimators of time series seasonal factors and their effect on forecasting accuracy’’ (Miller & Williams, 2003). The two teams proceeded systematically, reporting results both before and after receiving clarifications from the authors of the original study. The teams were able to approximately reproduce each other’s results, but not those of Miller and Williams. These discrepancies led to differences in the conclusions as to the conditions under which seasonal damping outperforms classical decomposition. The paper specifies the forecasting methods employed using a flowchart. It is argued that this approach to method documentation is complementary to the provision of computer code, as it is accessible to a broader audience of forecasting practitioners and researchers. The significance of this research lies not only in its lessons for seasonal forecasting but also, more generally, in its approach to the reproduction of forecasting research

Base-stock policies with reservations

All intensively studied and widely applied inventory control policies satisfy demand in accordance with the First-Come-First-Served (FCFS) rule, whether this demand is in backorder or not. Interestingly, this rule is sub-optimal when the fill-rate is constrained or when the backorder cost structure includes fixed costs per backorder and costs per backorder per unit time. In this paper we study the degree of sub-optimality of the FCFS rule for inventory systems controlled by the well-known base-stock policy. As an alternative to the FCFS rule, we propose and analyze a class of generalized base-stock policies that reserve some maximum number of items in stock for future demands, even if backorders exist. Our analytic results and numerical investigations show that such alternative stock reservation policies are indeed very simple and considerably improve either the fillrate or reduce the total cost, without having much effect on the backorder level

Optimisation of inspection policy for multi-line production systems

This paper develops a simulation model to determine the cost-optimum inspection policy for a multi-line production system taking account of simultaneous downtime. The machines in the multi-line system are subject to a two stage failure process that is modelled using the delay-time concept. Our study indicates that: consecutive inspection of lines with priority for failure repair is cost-optimal, with a cost reduction of 61% compared to a ‘run-to-failure’ policy; and maintainers need to be responsive to operational requirements. Our ideas are developed in the context of a case study of a plant with three parallel lines, one of which is on cold-standby. Keywords: maintenance; delay-time model; simulation; production; parallel lines; manufacturing; preventive maintenance