Do fear indices help predict stock returns?

This study investigates the forecasting power of implied volatility indices on forward looking returns. Prior studies document that negative innovations to returns are associated with increasing implied volatility of the underlying indices; thus, suggesting a possible relationship between extremely high levels of implied volatility and positive short term returns. We investigate this issue by examining the predictive power of three implied volatility indices, VIX, VXN and VDAX, on the underlying index returns. We extend previous research by also focusing on characterised selected stocks and examine the relationship between implied volatility indices and future returns across different sectors and classified portfolios. Our findings suggest that implied volatility indices are good predictors of 20-days and 60-days forward looking returns and illustrate insignificant predictive power for very short term (1-day and 5-days) returns. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis

AMPNet: Attention as Message Passing for Graph Neural Networks

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a powerful representation learning framework for graph-structured data. A key limitation of conventional GNNs is their representation of each node with a singular feature vector, potentially overlooking intricate details about individual node features. Here, we propose an Attention-based Message-Passing layer for GNNs (AMPNet) that encodes individual features per node and models feature-level interactions through cross-node attention during message-passing steps. We demonstrate the abilities of AMPNet through extensive benchmarking on real-world biological systems such as fMRI brain activity recordings and spatial genomic data, improving over existing baselines by 20% on fMRI signal reconstruction, and further improving another 8% with positional embedding added. Finally, we validate the ability of AMPNet to uncover meaningful feature-level interactions through case studies on biological systems. We anticipate that our architecture will be highly applicable to graph-structured data where node entities encompass rich feature-level information.Comment: 16 pages (12 + 4 pages appendix). 5 figures and 7 table

Delay in diagnosis of tuberculosis in Rawalpindi, Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Delay in diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis (TB) may enhance the chances of morbidity and mortality and play a key role in continuous transmission of the bacilli. The objective of this study was to describe health care seeking behavior of suspected TB patients and initial diagnostic work up prior to consultation and diagnosis at National TB Center (NTC).</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Interviews of 252 sputum smear positive patients were taken from NTC, Rawalpindi. The duration between on-set of symptoms and start of treatment was considered as the total delay and correlated with general characteristics of TB patients. The proportion of males and females were 49.6% and 50.4% with median age of 25 and 24 years respectively. A median delay of 56 days (8 weeks) was observed which was significantly associated with age, cough and fever. More than 50% of the current patients had a history of contact with previously diagnosed TB patients. The majority of patients (63%) visited health care providers within three weeks of appearance of symptoms but only thirty five percent were investigated for TB diagnosis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Cough and fever are being ignored as likely symptoms of TB by patients as well as health care providers resulting in delay. Engaging private practitioners through public private mix (PPM) approach for expansion of TB diagnosis and increasing public awareness could be more beneficial to reduce delay.</p

Genetic variability in the precore and core promoter regions of hepatitis B virus strains in Karachi

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotypes have distinct geographic distribution. Moreover, much genetic variability has been described in the precore (PC) and basal core promoter (BCP) regions of the HBV genome. The local prevalence of HBV genotypes and mutations has not been well studied. The aim of the present study is to determine the prevalence of HBV genotypes and mutations in the PC and BCP region in HBV strains in Karachi. METHODS: A total of 109 chronic hepatitis B patients with detectable HBV DNA by a PCR assay were enrolled in the study. Sera were tested for HBeAg, anti-HBe antibody and liver profile. HBV genotypes and mutations in the PC and BCP regions were detected by INNO-LiPA line-probe assays. RESULTS: Of the 109 patients investigated, 38 (35%) were HBeAg positive while 71 (65%) were HBeAg negative. Genotype D was present in 100% of the patients. Two patients had co-infection with genotype A. There was no significant difference in the baseline characteristics, mean ALT levels, and presence of clinical cirrhosis in patients with HBeAg positive or negative strains with or without PC and BCP mutations. Of the 38 HBeAg positive patients, 9 (24%) had PC and BCP mutations. In the HBeAg negative patient group, mutations were detected in 44 (62%) of the strains investigated. More than one mutation was common, seen in 26 (37%) patients with HBeAg negative disease and 6 (16%) patients with HBeAg positive disease. Twelve (17%) HBeAg negative patients had dual T1762 and A1764 mutations. None of the HBeAg positive patients had T1762 mutation. Mutations were undetectable in 27 (38%) of patients with HBeAg negative disease. CONCLUSION: Our study shows that type D is the main HBV genotype in Karachi, Pakistan. Significant numbers of patients infected with this genotype have PC and BCP variants. Mutations at more than one site are common. Patients harboring these mutants do not differ significantly in their clinical presentation from patients having wild type infection

Electrocardiographic features of immune checkpoint inhibitor associated myocarditis.

BACKGROUND: Myocarditis is a highly morbid complication of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) use that remains inadequately characterized. The QRS duration and the QTc interval are standardized electrocardiographic measures that are prolonged in other cardiac conditions; however, there are no data on their utility in ICI myocarditis. METHODS: From an international registry, ECG parameters were compared between 140 myocarditis cases and 179 controls across multiple time points (pre-ICI, on ICI prior to myocarditis, and at the time of myocarditis). The association between ECG values and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) was also tested. RESULTS: Both the QRS duration and QTc interval were similar between cases and controls prior to myocarditis. When compared with controls on an ICI (93±19 ms) or to baseline prior to myocarditis (97±19 ms), the QRS duration prolonged with myocarditis (110±22 ms, p CONCLUSIONS: The QRS duration is increased in ICI myocarditis and is associated with increased MACE risk. Use of this widely available ECG parameter may aid in ICI myocarditis diagnosis and risk-stratification

Global Longitudinal Strain and Cardiac Events in Patients With Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor-Related Myocarditis.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for improved methods for detection and risk stratification of myocarditis associated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Global longitudinal strain (GLS) is a sensitive marker of cardiac toxicity among patients receiving standard chemotherapy. There are no data on the use of GLS in ICI myocarditis. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the role of GLS and assess its association with cardiac events among patients with ICI myocarditis. METHODS: This study retrospectively compared echocardiographic GLS by speckle tracking at presentation with ICI myocarditis (cases, n = 101) to that from patients receiving an ICI who did not develop myocarditis (control subjects, n = 92). Where available, GLS was also measured pre-ICI in both groups. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as a composite of cardiogenic shock, arrest, complete heart block, and cardiac death. RESULTS: Cases and control subjects were similar in age, sex, and cancer type. At presentation with myocarditis, 61 cases (60%) had a normal ejection fraction (EF). Pre-ICI, GLS was similar between cases and control subjects (20.3 ± 2.6% vs. 20.6 ± 2.0%; p = 0.60). There was no change in GLS among control subjects on an ICI without myocarditis (pre-ICI vs. on ICI, 20.6 ± 2.0% vs. 20.5 ± 1.9%; p = 0.41); in contrast, among cases, GLS decreased to 14.1 ± 2.8% (p \u3c 0.001). The GLS at presentation with myocarditis was lower among cases presenting with either a reduced (12.3 ± 2.7%) or preserved EF (15.3 ± 2.0%; p \u3c 0.001). Over a median follow-up of 162 days, 51 (51%) experienced MACE. The risk of MACE was higher with a lower GLS among patients with either a reduced or preserved EF. After adjustment for EF, each percent reduction in GLS was associated with a 1.5-fold increase in MACE among patients with a reduced EF (hazard ratio: 1.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.2 to 1.8) and a 4.4-fold increase with a preserved EF (hazard ratio: 4.4; 95% confidence interval: 2.4 to 7.8). CONCLUSIONS: GLS decreases with ICI myocarditis and, compared with control subjects, was lower among cases presenting with either a preserved or reduced EF. Lower GLS was strongly associated with MACE in ICI myocarditis presenting with either a preserved or reduced EF