Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

In this paper, we examine the concept of embodied uncertainty by exploring multiple dimensions of uncertainty in the context of risks associated with extreme natural hazards. We highlight a need for greater recognition, particularly by disaster management and response agencies, of uncertainty as a subjective experience for those living at risk. Embodied uncertainty is distinguished from objective uncertainty by the nature of its internalisation at the individual level, where it is subjective, felt and directly experienced. This approach provides a conceptual pathway that sharpens knowledge of the processes that shape how individuals and communities interpret and contextualise risk. The ways in which individual characteristics, social identities and lived experiences shape interpretations of risk are explored by considering embodied uncertainty in four contexts: social identities and trauma, the co-production of knowledge, institutional structures and policy and long-term lived experiences. We conclude by outlining the opportunities that this approach presents, and provide recommendations for further research on how the concept of embodied uncertainty can aid decision-making and the management of risks in the context of extreme natural hazards

3D Landslide Models in VR

peer reviewedThe present paper describes the elaboration of 3D surface and geological models generated for a series of landslide sites, zones marked by large incipient slope failures, or those presenting structural characteristics of an ancient giant mass movement. For both, surface and geological models, high-resolution satellite or drone imagery was draped on the digital elevation model constructed from the same imagery or using Radar or LiDAR data. The geological models further include geophysical data, supported by differential GPS measurements, complemented by georeferenced geological and tectonic maps and related geological sections. The soft layer thickness information and borehole data are typically represented in terms of logs inside the model. For several sites also slope stability analyses were performed, either in 2D or in 3D. Inputs for those analyses were directly extracted from the 3D geomodels, outputs were again represented in the models. Some of those models, such as the one produced for the right-bank slopes of the Rogun Dam construction site can be quite complex and we clearly could notice that an immersive analysis using VR technology helps understand their internal structure and perform a better slope stability analysis. Still these analyses have their limits, as a study in Virtual Reality is purely individual (at present time, the visiting researcher is separated from the rest of the World). Therefore, we suggest that a real advancement can only be achieved if the technological developments go along with a stronger collaboration between scientists from the various geo-domains, who could also be immersed in the same virtual model (~collaborative VR)

Consequences of long-term volcanic activity for essential services in Montserrat: challenges, adaptations and resilience

Long-term volcanic activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat (1995–ongoing) has created challenges for society and the resilience of the essential services (infrastructure) that support it. This paper explores the consequences, adaptations and resilience of essential services through interviews with their staff. We find that quick fixes for essential service reinstatement in the north of Montserrat have prevailed. Yet, the legacy of this approach inhibits functionality through inadequate facilities and the perception of sites as temporary, stalling investment. Emigration resulted in staff shortages, retraining requirements and challenges for the viability of specialist services. Low-impact hazards exacerbate shortcomings in essential services, causing power cuts, corrosion, and temporary closures of schools, clinics and the airport. Adaptations developed over time include changes to roofing materials, the addition of back-up systems, collaborative working and the development of contingency plans. Resilience of essential services has improved through decentralization, adaptations, and via strong community networks and tolerance of disruptions. Barriers to increasing resilience include the expense of some adaptations and the current reluctance to invest in essential services, hindering development. We offer some lessons for policy and practice to guide post-crisis redevelopment, through engagement with the community and by complementing community-level adaptations with investment to address long-term needs

Reporting on the Seminar - Risk interpretation and action (RIA): Decision making under conditions of uncertainty

The paper reports on the World Social Science (WSS) Fellows seminar on Risk Interpretation and Action (RIA), undertaken in New Zealand in December, 2013. This seminar was coordinated by the WSS Fellows program of the International Social Science Council (ISSC), the RIA working group of the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) program, the IRDR International Center of Excellence Taipei, the International START Secretariat and the Royal Society of New Zealand. Twenty-five early career researchers from around the world were selected to review the RIA framework under the theme of \u27decision-making under conditions of uncertainty\u27, and develop novel theoretical approaches to respond to and improve this framework. Six working groups emerged during the seminar: 1. the assessment of water-related risks in megacities; 2. rethinking risk communication; 3. the embodiment of uncertainty; 4. communication in resettlement and reconstruction phases; 5. the integration of indigenous knowledge in disaster risk reduction; and 6. multi-scale policy implementation for natural hazard risk reduction. This article documents the seminar and initial outcomes from the six groups organized; and concludes with the collective views of the participants on the RIA framework

Impact assessment of the May 2010 eruption of Pacaya volcano, Guatemala

This report summarises the field observations and interpretations of a reconnaissance trip to Guatemala in September 2010. The purpose of this trip was to investigate the impacts of the 27 May 2010 eruption of Pacaya volcano, located approximately 30 km SSW of Guatemala City. This eruption was of particular interest as it presented an opportunity to study an event with parallels to an eruption of the Auckland Volcanic Field and its consequences for the city of Auckland. A further interesting feature of this event was that a major tropical storm arrived immediately after the eruption, providing an opportunity to study the interaction between two co-occurring natural disasters. The 27 May 2010 eruption of Pacaya volcano began shortly after 14h00. The paroxysmal phase started shortly after 19h00 and lasted approximately 45 minutes. This phase generated a plume that was directed towards the north. At Cerro Chino, 1 km from crater, large ballistic fragments (up to half a metre in length) fell, killing one news reporter, injuring many others and destroying buildings, vehicles and equipment. This took local communities and civil defence by surprise as previous tephra falls had been to the west and southwest of the crater and preliminary civil defence efforts had been focussed on those areas. Three communities located 2.5-3.5 km to north of crater were particularly badly affected by the fall of ballistic clasts. Roofs in these towns were extensively damaged by ballistic blocks and to a lesser extent by tephra accumulation. The tephra plume travelled to the north, and Guatemala City was covered in an estimated 2-3 cm of coarse basaltic tephra which local residents described as being like ‘black sand’. The majority of the report is concerned with describing impacts of the tephra fall on Guatemala City. A prompt and efficient citywide cleanup was initiated by the city’s municipality to remove tephra from the 2100 km of roads in the capital. An estimated 11,350,000 m3 of tephra was removed from the city’s roads and rooftops. The possibility of using the tephra for aggregate in cement production was investigated, but it was found to be too friable (low mechanical strength). It was disposed of in landfills around the city. Despite the cleanup operations, considerable quantities of tephra were washed into the city’s underground drainage network from where it was very difficult to remove. Blockages of stormwater drains led to surface flooding of the city’s road network which persisted for months afterwards. Tephra also entered the city’s many wastewater treatment plants, both by direct deposition and through sewer lines. There was no option but to clean out all these systems, an expensive and time-consuming job. A number of accidents happened during the cleanup operations. Limited data available from hospital emergency department admission records indicates that most of these were caused by people falling from their roofs, and other heights, while cleaning up the tephra. The eruption did not cause any discernible increase in respiratory illnesses above normal wintertime levels. This is probably due to several factors: the grain size of the tephra was coarse, with no material present in very fine fractions that can penetrate into the lungs, and the eruption happened in the evening and in rainy conditions and thus most people were indoors. The eruption appeared to have minimal effect on the functioning of two of Guatemala City’s large public hospitals, other than exacerbating pre-existing drainage and flooding problems for one of them as tephra blocked downpipes, gutters, drains and sumps. For electricity and water supplies, effects of the eruption on continuity of supply were minor, although problems were experienced. A geothermal plant close to the volcano was badly damaged by falling ballistic clasts, and had to be closed for repairs and cleaning for three weeks. Flashover was also a problem for distribution lines. Cleaning of tephra from substations was mostly unnecessary because of the arrival of the tropical rainstorm shortly afterwards. For the city’s water supplies, a large storage tank was contaminated by tephra and had to be cleaned out, and there was also abrasion damage to air-cooled motors and groundwater pumps, but generally there was little overall disruption to the continuity of supply beyond normal variations. Probably the most significant disruption caused by the tephra fall was the closure of the international airport for five days, to allow cleanup of the runway and apron. A complication of the cleanup operation was that the tephra was extremely abrasive, and in the process of cleaning a new bituminous runway surface was destroyed and all markings on the runway and apron were removed also. A similar, though more minor problem, was reported while cleanup of the large flat roofs of one of the public hospitals was underway, when a waterproof coating was damaged by abrasion. Development of cleaning methods to minimise abrasion damage may be worth considering for future eruptions of this type. The arrival of a major tropical storm immediately after the eruption generally added to the difficulties experienced by organisations and individuals involved in the response. The storm had a much larger and more widespread impact on the country, resulting in 160 deaths and over 168,000 people requiring evacuation, compared to two deaths (plus two more indirect deaths due to accidents while clearing tephra) and just over 3,000 people evacuated as a result of the eruption. While the heavy rains made some of the impacts of the eruption worse (in particular, it washed the tephra into underground drainage networks before the cleanup was complete, which has in turn worsened drainage problems in the city), it also dampened down the tephra, minimised the corrosive potential of the tephra by washing away its chemically active surface coating), and suppressed fires

Infrastructure impacts, management and adaptations to eruptions at Volcán Tungurahua, Ecuador, 1999-2010

If you would like to purchase a hard copy of this report please contact: http://www.gns.cri.nz/store/publications/index.html or email [email protected] report summarises observations made on a field visit to areas affected by the May 2010 eruption of Volcán Tungurahua, Ecuador. The focus of this trip, carried out in September 2010 by a field team from the University of Canterbury and University College London, was to investigate both direct and indirect effects of ashfall on critical infrastructure, and the management of ashfall events. In particular we paid attention to less-studied areas of interest including electrical power and healthcare systems. All infrastructure topics explored aspects of resilience and adaptation, in the context of ongoing volcanic unrest at Tungurahua since 1999. Research methods were largely qualitative and included semi-structured interviews, observation, water testing and informal conversations and meetings with locals. A good overview of ashfall impacts on electricity networks, healthcare services and emergency management issues was achieved during the trip. The information gathered adds to our knowledge of the possible effects of volcanic ashfall on infrastructure and public services. Further insights into impacts of water, wastewater, transportation and agriculture were gained. Overall, infrastructure seemed to function well during the 2010 eruption, with only minor problems reported. However, the May 2010 eruption generated only minor ashfalls (a few mm) in most locations. Over the past 11 years of volcanic unrest, other events have caused more serious impacts, particularly a VEI 3 eruption on 16-17 August 2006. Electrical supplies suffered few problems, with no reports of electrical flashover from ashfalls. Problems arising from contamination of open water supplies have led to an initiative to cover water supplies. In the transport sector, the 2010 eruption resulted in a two-day closure of Guayaquil international airport due to risks to aircraft. Roads in the Tungurahua region have been frequently damaged by lahars over the past 11 years. The 2010 eruption caused partial damage to 3740 ha of crops. Far more severe, although localised, damage to crops, livestock and rural communities was caused by the August 2006 eruption. Healthcare centres are well-organised and are able to prioritise essential services in the event of an ashfall, and so experience few major impacts, but a variety of minor impacts on facilities and equipment. A variety of public health pathologies have increased by small amounts in the short term after ashfalls, and psychological impacts in communities affected by eruptions have increased since activity began at Volcán Tungurahua in 1999, and have required increased attention from healthcare professionals in the long term. Emergency management insights provide lessons pertaining to the benefits of local engagement and involvement in risk management, including the influential role of the vigìas, who act as observers of volcanic activity and coordinators of voluntary civil defence within the community. The focus on adaptations and responses to the long-term volcanic activity has provided insights into the long-term effects of volcanic activity and helped identify possible mitigation and prevention measures. It is found that in general, increased maintenance of infrastructure now occurs widely across sectors, and cleanup methods for specific sectors have been developed to cope with ashfalls. The cleanup of ash at the municipal level is well organised, and is coordinated with the National Secretariat of Risk Management such that costs are shared with the proportions adjusted according to the severity of the situation. Increased use of personal protective measures (such as masks and goggles) has achieved a reduction in 2011 GNS Science Report 2011/24 vi public health impacts. Healthcare centres are also well organised, forming brigades for rapid response in affected areas, and having a clear hierarchy of health centres within each region so that patients can be transferred if necessary. They have good knowledge of the volcanic alert level system and the protocols required for each alert level change. Emergency management also appears organised. Emergency drills are run in at-risk communities, and contingency plans are updated and revised following eruptions. Hazard warning and shelter signage is also widespread in the Tungurahua volcanic hazard area. Overall, we found clear evidence for increased organisation and improved management procedures in the Tungurahua volcanic hazard area, which should have strengthened societal resilience. Additionally individual adaptive behaviour has included: increased use of personal protective equipment, which has reduced public health effects; farmers growing more ash-resilient crops including onions, and using greenhouses for crop growth; farmers only rearing livestock for a shortened period of time in the area, in order to prevent tooth abrasion; and an initiative to cover water supplies to protect them from contamination by ashfalls. Other examples of adaptations to infrastructure have included: widespread hazard signage; sirens in and around Baños for early warning (with an alternate power supply in case of power cuts, and a contingency emergency services siren system); floodgate design at Agoyan dam for bypassing turbulent water; and the development of plans to relocate electrical transmission towers away from valleys that have, in the past, been affected by lahars. Further studies in the Tungurahua volcanic area would be beneficial, to gain long-term understanding of volcanic ash consequences on a variety of sectors, including those explored in less depth in this study

Field observations from the Aquila, Italy earthquake of April 6, 2009

On April 6, 2009 an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 (Mw) struck the Abbruzzo region of Italy causing widespread damage to buildings in the city of L’Aquila and surrounding areas. This paper summarizes field observations made by the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) after the event. The paper presents an overview of seismological and geotechnical aspects of the earthquake as well as a summary of the observed damage to buildings and infrastructure. A brief overview of the earthquake casualties is also reported