Modelling and Forecasting of Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Multiple Linear Regression Model and Quadratic Regression Model with Interactions

In this paper statistical analysis of residential electricity demand in Nigeria is presented. Multiple linear regression model and quadratic regression model with interactions are applied to estimate residential electricity consumption and to forecast long-term residential electricity demand in Nigeria. Population and temperature are used as explanatory variables. The results show the Quadratic Regression with interaction has RMSE of 52.77 and r-square value of 0.9389 which  indicates that 93.89% of the variation in residential electricity consumption is explained by the model. On the other hand , the multiple linear regression model has RMSE of 69.97 and r-square value of 0.873 which  indicates that  87.3%  of the variation in residential electricity consumption is explained by the model. Essentially,  the quadratic regression model with interaction with lower RMSE and  higher r-square value is selected and then used to forecast the residential electricity demand in Nigeria from 2015 to 2029. From the results, the Residential Electricity Consumption  in Nigeria will reach 6521.09 MW/h in the year 2029. Furthermore, the results show that population has a positive sign and it is significant in the short run and in the long run forecasting. On the other hand, the result also revealed insignificant moderately weak relationship between residential electricity consumption and temperature

Comparative Analysis of the Impact of Frequency on the Radius of Curvature of Single and Double Rounded Edge Hill Obstruction

In this paper, comparative analysis of the impact of frequency on the radius of curvature of single and double rounded edge hill obstruction is studied, particularly when the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) recommendation 526 version 13 method is used to compute the radius of curvature. The study is conducted with two  path profiles of  microwave links, one  with isolated  single edged hilltop and a second profile  with isolated  double edged hilltop. The frequencies considered are  from the 1.5 GHz in the L-band   to 36GHz in the K-band. The radius of curvature decreases with frequency in the case of single edged hilltop whereas the radius of curvature increases with frequency in the case of double edge hilltop. Essentially, other factors are responsible for determining whether the radius of curvature will increase or decrease with frequency.  One of such factors is the occultation distance. For all the frequencies considered, the occultation distance is 80.923 m for the single edged hilltop and 532.203m for the double edged hilltop. Further studies are therefore required to ascertain the factors that determine the exact impact of frequency on the radius of curvature for rounded edge obstructions

Determination of the Minimum Antenna Mast Height for Microwave Links with Nonzero Path Inclination: Method I

In this paper, a method that can be used to determine the minimum antenna mast height when the path inclination is not equal to zero is presented. In this method, none of the antenna height is known. In this case, the two antenna mast heights are determined from the knowledge of the location and height of the maximum obstruction in the communication link path. The mathematical models and the algorithm pertaining to the method are presented in this paper  along with sample numerical example using path profile data for a line of sight  4 GHz microwave communication link with path length of 38887.6 m. From the results, the receiver antenna height  is 176.07 m and  transmitter antenna height  is 127.09 m. With respective to the elevation height, this gives the transmitter antenna mast height of 37.25m and the receiver antenna mast height of 127.2 m. In effect, the transmitter antenna is lower than the receiver antenna. The transmitter is also below the maximum height of the tip of the obstruction which is 144.21 m high.  The path inclination is . The ideas presented in this study are useful for installation of entirely new line of sight microwave communication link

Determination of the Minimum Antenna Mast Height for Microwave Links with Nonzero Path Inclination: Method I

In this paper, a method that can be used to determine the minimum antenna mast height when the path inclination is not equal to zero is presented. In this method, none of the antenna height is known. In this case, the two antenna mast heights are determined from the knowledge of the location and height of the maximum obstruction in the communication link path. The mathematical models and the algorithm pertaining to the method are presented in this paper  along with sample numerical example using path profile data for a line of sight  4 GHz microwave communication link with path length of 38887.6 m. From the results, the receiver antenna height  is 176.07 m and  transmitter antenna height  is 127.09 m. With respective to the elevation height, this gives the transmitter antenna mast height of 37.25m and the receiver antenna mast height of 127.2 m. In effect, the transmitter antenna is lower than the receiver antenna. The transmitter is also below the maximum height of the tip of the obstruction which is 144.21 m high.  The path inclination is . The ideas presented in this study are useful for installation of entirely new line of sight microwave communication link