Factors Governing Risk of Cougar Attacks on Humans

Since the 1980s wildlife managers in the United States and Canada have expressed increasing concern about the physical threat posed by cougars (Puma concolor) to humans. We developed a conceptual framework and analyzed 386 human– cougar encounters (29 fatal attacks, 171 instances of nonfatal contact, and 186 close-threatening encounters) to provide information relevant to public safety. We conceived of human injury and death as the outcome of 4 transitions affected by different suites of factors: (1) a human encountering a cougar: (2) given an encounter, odds that the cougar would be aggressive; (3) given aggression, odds that the cougar would attack; and (4) given an attack, odds that the human would die. We developed multivariable logistic regression models to explain variation in odds at transitions three and four using variables pertaining to characteristics of involved people and cougars. Young (≤2.5 years) or unhealthy (by weight, condition, or disease) cougars were more likely than any others to be involved in close (typically m) encounters that threatened the involved person. Of cougars in close encounters, females were more likely than males to attack, and of attacking animals, adults were more likely than juveniles to kill the victim (32% versus 9% fatality, respectively). During close encounters, victims who used a weapon killed the involved cougar in 82% of cases. Other mitigating behaviors (e.g., yelling, backing away, throwing objects, increasing stature) also substantially lessened odds of attack. People who were moving quickly or erratically when an encounter happened (running, playing, skiing, snowshoeing, biking, ATV-riding) were more likely to be attacked and killed compared to people who were less active (25% versus 8% fatality). Children (≤10 years) were more likely than single adults to be attacked, but intervention by people of any age reduced odds of a child’s death by 4.6×. Overall, cougar attacks on people in Canada and the United States were rare (currently 4 to 6/year) compared to attacks by large felids and wolves (Canis lupus) in Africa and Asia (hundreds to thousands/year)

The case for OFSMOKE: how tobacco price regulation is needed to promote the health of markets, government revenue and the public

Mainstream economic theory outlines four main causes of market failure and it is already well established that two of these (information failure and externalities) exist in a tobacco market. A third cause of market failure, market power, is also a serious problem in many tobacco markets. Market power—combined with unintended and often overlooked consequences of tobacco tax policies, notably that gradual increases in specific taxes may allow the industry to disguise significant price increases—has, at least in high income countries, given cigarette manufacturers considerable pricing power and profits. This paper examines ways this market failure could be addressed and proposes as a solution a system of price cap regulation wherein a cap is placed on the pre-tax cigarette manufacturers' price but not on the retail price that consumers face. Well established in the utilities industry, price cap regulation would set a maximum price that cigarette companies can charge for their product based on an assessment of the genuine costs each firm faces in its operations and an assumption about the efficiency savings it would be expected to make. Such a system would achieve three main benefits. First, it would address the problem of market failure and excess profits while simultaneously allowing current tobacco control policies, including tax and price increases, to expand—thus tax increases would remain a central tenet of tobacco control policies and retail prices could continue to increase. Second, it would increase government revenue by transferring the excess profits from the industry to the government purse. Third, it would bring numerous public health benefits. In addition to addressing market power, while simultaneously allowing tobacco control policies to expand, it could offer a means of preventing down-trading to cheaper products and controlling unwanted industry practices such as cigarette smuggling, price fixing and marketing to the young. The paper outlines in some detail how such a system might be developed in the UK, while briefly exploring how it could be applied elsewhere, including in markets with state monopolies

Big tobacco, e-cigarettes, and a road to the smoking endgame

The provision of the extraordinarily deadly product of cigarettes is dominated by a small number of large and incredibly profitable shareholder owned companies that are focussed on cigarettes. The legal duty of their managers to maximise shareholder wealth means that such companies vigorously fight any new public health measures that have the potential to disrupt their massive profit making, and have the resources to do so. Protecting the public health is therefore made a lot more difficult and expensive. We suggest that one way to counter this would be to actively design future tobacco control policies so that tobacco companies face mechanisms and incentives to develop in such a way that they no longer achieve the greatest shareholder value by focusing on cigarettes. A proper tobacco diversification and exit strategy for the shareholders of the profit-seeking tobacco industry would protect the public health by addressing the current addiction to the continuation of the cigarette market. The increasing popularity of e-cigarettes presents a particular opportunity in this regard, and we therefore suggest a possible policy response in order to start discussion in this area

Effects of reduced-risk nicotine-delivery products on smoking prevalence and cigarette sales: an observational study

BACKGROUND: It is not currently clear what impact alternative nicotine-delivery products (electronic cigarettes, heated tobacco products and snus) have on smoking rates and cigarette sales. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether access to these products promotes smoking in the population. DESIGN AND DATA SOURCES: We examined associations of alternative nicotine product use and sales with smoking rates and cigarette sales overall, and in different age and socioeconomic groups, and compared smoking prevalence over time in countries with contrasting regulations of these products. For electronic cigarettes, we examined data from countries with historically similar smoking trajectories but differing current electronic cigarette regulations (United Kingdom and United States of America vs. Australia, where sales of nicotine-containing electronic cigarettes are banned); for heated tobacco, we used data from countries with state tobacco monopolies, where cigarette and heated tobacco sales data are available (Japan, South Korea), and for snus we used data from Sweden. ANALYSIS METHODS: We pre-specified dynamic time series analyses to explore associations between use and sales of alternative nicotine-delivery products and smoking prevalence and cigarette sales, and time series analyses to compare trends of smoking prevalence in countries with different nicotine product policies. RESULTS: Because of data and analysis limitations (see below), results are only tentative and need to be interpreted with caution. Only a few findings reached statistical significance and for most results the Bayes factor indicated inconclusive evidence. We did not find an association between rates of smoking and rates of the use of alternative nicotine products. The increase in heated tobacco product sales in Japan was accompanied by a decrease in cigarette sales. The decline in smoking prevalence seems to have been slower in Australia than in the United Kingdom overall, and slower than in both the United Kingdom and the United States of America among young people and also in lower socioeconomic groups. The decline in cigarette sales has also accelerated faster in the United Kingdom than in Australia. LIMITATIONS: Most of the available data had insufficient data points for robust time series analyses. The assumption of our statistical approach that causal interactions are more likely to be detected when longer-term changes are screened out may not apply for short time series and in product interaction scenarios, where short-term fluctuations can be caused by, for example, fluctuations in prosperity or product supplies. In addition, due to dual use, prevalence figures for smoking and alternative product use overlap. The ecological study design limits the causal inferences that can be made. Longer time periods are needed for any effects of exclusive use of the new products on smoking prevalence to emerge. CONCLUSIONS: We detected some indications that alternative nicotine products are competing with cigarettes rather than promoting smoking and that regulations that allow their sales are associated with a reduction rather than an increase of smoking, but the findings are inconclusive because of insufficient data points and issues with the assumptions of the pre-specified statistical analyses. FUTURE WORK: As further prevalence and sales data emerge the analyses will become more informative. Accessing sales figures in particular is the current research priority. STUDY REGISTRATION: The project is registered on Open Science Framework https://osf.io/bd3ah. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (NIHR129968) and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 11, No. 7. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Do Tobacco Companies Have an Incentive to Promote “Harm Reduction” Products? The Role of Competition

Background Some cigarette companies have started to talk about replacing cigarettes with less harmful alternatives, which might include nicotine vaping products (NVPs), heated tobacco products (HTPs) and oral nicotine delivery products (ONDPs). We consider market competition as a primary driver of whether cigarette companies follow through on their stated intentions. Methods We focus on the behavior of cigarette companies in the US. We compare competition in the pre- and post-2012 time periods, analyze the impact of the growth in NVPs on smoking prevalence and cigarette company profits, and examine the potential future role of competition. Results Since 2006, consumers have broadened their use of non-combustible nicotine delivery products (NCNDPs) to include, inter alia, NVPs, HTPs and ONDPs. US cigarette companies have acquired major stakes in each of these product categories which corresponds to a period of rapidly declining adult smoking prevalence, especially among younger adults (ages 18-24 years). The shifting dynamics of the nicotine product marketplace are also reflected in cigarette company stock prices. While cigarette companies are likely to promote HTPs and ONDPs over NVPs, their incentives will be directly related to competition from independent firms, which in turn will depend on government regulation. Conclusions While cigarette companies will back alternatives to combusted tobacco when threatened by competition, the prospects for their lasting conversion to NCNDPs will depend on the extent of such competition, which will be influenced by government regulation of tobacco products