Damage Potential and Losses Resulting from Snow Avalanches in Settlements of the Canton of Grisons, Switzerland

In the field of natural hazards, risk is usually expressed as a function of probability of occurrence and damage potential. A key factor in the development of avalanche risk is a change in damage potential. In this paper, the development of damage potential and losses is analysed for settlements in the canton of Grisons, Switzerland for the period between 1950 and 2000. The spatial development patterns of the residential population and the insured value of buildings on a municipal level are described. These patterns are overlain by an accentuated occurrence of avalanches that caused damage to buildings. Extensive results from areas threatened by avalanches in the municipality of Davos are presented. Although the natural avalanche activity remained constant during the last decades, the total amount of damage decreased due to mitigation measures. The example of the municipality of Davos shows that mitigation measures are able to compensate an increase of tangible assets which leads to a reduced avalanche risk compared to earlier decade

Microbiological communities of North Atlantic, 3rd Dimension of the Logatchev-Hydrothermalfield - Cruise No. MSM03 of Research Vessel Maria S. Merian

Fahrtabschnitt MSM 03/1: Der nördliche Atlantik weist drei Eigenschaften auf, die ihn zu einem der interessantesten Meeresgebiete machen. Zum einen beginnt hier das Absinken von kalten und dichten Wassermassen nördlich von Grönland und Island und bildet dadurch einen wichtigen Faktor der globalen ozeanischen Wasserzirkulation, dem globalen Strömungsgürtel. Zum anderen transportiert die Verlängerung des Golf Stromes, die Nordatlantische Drift, warmes Oberflächenwasser bis nach Spitzbergen und beeinflußt so entscheidend das Klima in Europa. Schließlich fließen kalte Oberflächenwässer an der Küste Grönlands entlang südwärts und transportieren nährstoffreiches Wasser in den Süden. Während der letzten 15 Jahre ist mit Hilfe von kultivierungsunabhängigen Methoden die mikrobiellen Gemeinschaften in verschiedenen marinen Systemen sehr intensiv erforscht worden. Viele unbekannte und nicht kultivierte Organismen wie der weit verbreitete SAR11 Cluster wurden entdeckt und quantitativ verfolgt. Kürzlich wurden Genomanalysen ganzer mikrobieller Gemeinschaften initiiert (Metagenomics). Jedoch bleibt solche Forschung oft auf küstennahe Standorte beschränkt. Nur wenige Studien beschrieben bisher die mikrobielle Diversität, Struktur und Funktion im offenen Ozean und über ganze Meeresbecken hinweg. Das sogenannte AMT (Atlantic Meridional Transect) Programm ist eines dieser Studien, welche es sich zur Aufgabe gemacht hat, den gesamten Atlantischen Ozean von den britischen Inseln (50°N) bis zu den Falkland Inseln (50°S) zu untersuchen. Zweimal im Jahr werden in einem interdisziplinären Ansatz der Einfluß der biotischen (Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Mikrobiologie) und abiotischen Faktoren (physikalischen und chemischen Parameter) auf die gesamte mikrobielle Gemeinschaft untersucht. Erste Ergebnisse dieser Studien bestätigten zum Beispiel die Einnischung von verschiedenen Ökotypen des wichtigen Primärproduzenten Prochlorococcus in distinkte Wasserkörper (Tiefe, Breitengrad) entlang des Atlantischen Ozeans. Eine erste Studie zur Erforschung des Picoplanktons nördlich des 50° Breitengrades stellte das PRIME Programm dar. Neuere Untersuchungen in dem Gebiet richteten sich auf die Bakterioplankton-Gemeinschaft von Tiefenwässern unterhalb von 1000 m. Für die Oberflächengewässer dieser Region jedoch fehlt eine genauere Untersuchung der Diversität, Struktur und Funktion der mikrobiellen Gemeinschaft mit modernen molekularbiologischen Methoden. Fahrtabschnitt MSM 03/2: Das Ziel der Forschungsfahrt ist die detaillierte Untersuchung des flachen Untergrundes im Logatchev Hydrothermalfeldam Mittelatlantischen Rücken (MAR) bei 15°N mit bis zu 15 m tiefen Bohrungen. Die Fahrt findet im Rahmen des DFG-SPP 1144 statt und komplettiert die bisher gewonnenen Oberflächenproben sowie die im Rahmen des ODP-Leg 209 gewonnenen Tiefen-proben. Das in 3000m Wassertiefe liegende und an Mantelgesteine gebundene Logatchev Hydrothermalfeld ist durch intensive Anreicherung an Kupfer, Gold, Kobalt und anderen Wertelementen am Meersboden und vermutlich auch im flachen Untergrund gekennzeichnet. Gleichzeitig sind die hydrothermalen Fluide an bestimmten Gasen wie CH4 und H2 sehr stark angereichert, was intensive Auswirkungen auf die an das Hydrothermalsystem gekoppelten Mikroorganismen hat. Die Mikroben sitzen auf den Oberflächen der Untergrundgesteine und Mineralpräzipitate im Bereich der hydrothermalen Austrittsstellen, wobei letztere spezifische ökologische Nischen bilden. Neben der Untersuchung der Tiefenzonierungen der Mineralisationen und Alterationen sowie deren Altersstellungen, ist die vermutete direkte Interaktion zwischen den Mikroorganismen (subsurface biosphere) und den hydrothermalen Mineralbildungen ein weiterer wichtiger wissenschaftlicher Aspekt. Auf der MSM03/2-Reise wird erstmals das ferngesteuerte Bohrgerät Rockdrill2 des British Geological Survey eingesetzt. Neben deutschen Wissenschaftlern der Fachrichtungen Lagerstättenkunde, Petrologie, Geochemie und Mikrobiologie werden britische Techniker und Ingenieure sowie Wissenschaftler aus Russland und China an der Fahrt teilnehmen.Leg MSM 03/1 The North Atlantic Ocean has three features which makes it one of the most interesting parts of the world’s oceans. First, the extensive downwelling of cold and dense water masses north of Greenland and Iceland mark an important point in the global ocean water circulation, known as the “global conveyer belt”. Second, the extension of the Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic drift, is transporting warm surface water masses to high latitudes up to Spitzbergen thereby significantly influencing the climate of Europe. Third, cold surface water masses flow southwards along the coast of Greenland transporting nutrient rich waters to the south. The components of the microbial community inhabiting different marine systems have been intensively investigated by cultivation independent methods over the past 15 years. Many unknown and yet-uncultured organisms like the ubiquous SAR11 cluster have been detected and quantitatively monitored. Recently genomic analysis of whole microbial communities (=metagenomics) have been initiated. However such research is often restricted to few sites or limited to near-shore sites. Only few open ocean and basin – scale studies of the microbial community diversity, structure and function have been conducted so far. One of these studies is the British Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT) program, which monitors the entire Atlantic Ocean from the app. 50°S (Falkland Islands) to app. 50°N (United Kingdom) twice a year. By an integrated approach of many disciplines including physical and chemical oceanography, microbiology, phytoplankton and zooplankton research the variability of microorganisms and the biotic and abiotic factors are studied. First results confirmed, for example, the nichepartitioning of different ecotypes of the imprimary producer Prochlorococcus in distinct water layers (depth, latitude) across the Atlantic Ocean. A first study of the picoplankton community north of 50°N of the Atlantic Ocean was done in 1996 during the PRIME cruise. Recent studies in the same area have focused on the bacterioplankton community of deep water masses below 1000 m water depths. An in-depth analysis of the diversity, structure and function of the microbial community in the photic layer down to genus and group level wit modern molecular tools was not yet conducted for this area. Leg MSM 03/2 The main objective of this cruise is the investigation of the shallow subsurface in the Logatchev hydrothermal field on the Mid Atlantic Ridge at 15°N by drilling up to 15 m deep cores. The cruise will take place within the DFG-SPP 1144 and will complete the surface sampling realized so far as well as deep sampling carried out by ODP Leg 209. The ultramafic-hosted Logatchev hydrothermal field situated in 3000m water depth is characterized by large enrichments of Cu, Au, Co, and other valuable elements at the seafloor and supposedly in the shallow subsurface. Hydrothermal fluids are largely enriched in certain gases like CH4 and H2 which is clearly linked to the microbiology associated with this hydrothermal system. The surfaces of rocks and minerals in the subsurface of the hydrothermal vent systems represent specific ecological niches for microorganisms which will be found associated to these interfaces. Apart from the investigation of the depth zonations of the mineralization and alteration as well as their age relationships is the establishmentof the variability of the subsurface biosphere and their supposed direct influence on the formation and transformation of hydrothermal mineral precipitations another major scientific aspect of the project. As drilling device the newly built, remotely operated Rockdrill2 of the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh (UK) will be used. Scientists from Germany representing the fields of economic geology, petrology, geochemistry and microbiology, technicians and engineers from UK as well as scientists from Russia and China will take part in the cruise

Partnership approaches in flood risk management: lessons from the Eastern Alps

In the past decades flood risk management has taken a paradigm shift away from a structural, securitybased approach towards more an integrated, risk-based approach. While the ‘traditional’ approach was informed by afirm belief in controlling rivers via engineering solutions, flood risk management today increasingly acknowledgesthe importance of providing ‘more space for the rivers’. The new policy agenda has been implemented to enhance the development of catchment-wide management plans in flood risk management and at the same time to reduce the controlling role of central national governments. The aim of the paper is to examine the new role of these local authorities and organisations in flood risk management as well as how the nature of partnerships are established and operate, focusing especially on the main barriers and challenges. The current goal of this partnership approach lies with the conservation of regionally important retention areas for protective measures on an inter-local level. An important issue is that of compensation measures between upstream and downstream communities, which at present is causing many conflicts. We conclude that although a catchment-wide management approach may be seen as an ‘optimal’ solution for flood risk management. However, in practice there are many limitations and barriers in establishing these collaborations and making them effective

Operational tsunami modelling with TsunAWI – recent developments and applications

In this article, the tsunami model TsunAWI (Alfred Wegener Institute) and its application for hindcasts, inundation studies, and the operation of the tsunami scenario repository for the Indonesian tsunami early warning system are presented. TsunAWI was developed in the framework of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and simulates all stages of a tsunami from the origin and the propagation in the ocean to the arrival at the coast and the inundation on land. It solves the non-linear shallow water equations on an unstructured finite element grid that allows to change the resolution seamlessly between a coarse grid in the deep ocean and a fine representation of coastal structures. During the GITEWS project and the following maintenance phase, TsunAWI and a framework of pre- and postprocessing routines was developed step by step to provide fast computation of enhanced model physics and to deliver high quality results

A generic physical vulnerability model for floods: review and concept for data-scarce regions

The use of different methods for physical flood vulnerability assessment has evolved over time, from traditional single-parameter stage–damage curves to multi-parameter approaches such as multivariate or indicator-based models. However, despite the extensive implementation of these models in flood risk assessment globally, a considerable gap remains in their applicability to data-scarce regions. Considering that these regions are mostly areas with a limited capacity to cope with disasters, there is an essential need for assessing the physical vulnerability of the built environment and contributing to an improvement of flood risk reduction. To close this gap, we propose linking approaches with reduced data requirements, such as vulnerability indicators (integrating major damage drivers) and damage grades (integrating frequently observed damage patterns). First, we present a review of current studies of physical vulnerability indicators and flood damage models comprised of stage–damage curves and the multivariate methods that have been applied to predict damage grades. Second, we propose a new conceptual framework for assessing the physical vulnerability of buildings exposed to flood hazards that has been specifically tailored for use in data-scarce regions. This framework is operationalized in three steps: (i) developing a vulnerability index, (ii) identifying regional damage grades, and (iii) linking resulting index classes with damage patterns, utilizing a synthetic “what-if” analysis. The new framework is a first step for enhancing flood damage prediction to support risk reduction in data-scarce regions. It addresses selected gaps in the literature by extending the application of the vulnerability index for damage grade prediction through the use of a synthetic multi-parameter approach. The framework can be adapted to different data-scarce regions and allows for integrating possible modifications to damage drivers and damage grades

Mögliche Effekte des demographischen Wandels-Ein Überblick-

One of the more important influences shaping the future economic conditions of the highly industrialized countries is the decline and aging of their population. The article is a comprehensive survey of the impact of this development on key economic variables and the institutions of the welfare state. While the overall consequence of the aging process on productivity growth is more likely to be negative, there are also some offsetting forces like the increase in the capital intensity. The institutions of the welfare state, which are based on intergenerational transfers, will have to be reformed, in order to bring them in line with the demographic process. The prediction of a decrease in the rate of unemployment as a consequence of a declining labor force is according to our analysis not justified.

Improving Evacuation Maps by Integrating Needs and Preferences of End-Users in GIS

International audienceAn efficient communication requires knowing the characteristics of the receiver. Even if this rule of communication is the basis in many fields of applications (marketing, education, advertising …), it is still not operationnaly integrated into flood risk cartographic communication. This is surprising since cartographic software and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have become inevitable in territorial management and engineering assessments and allow the mappers to produce target-oriented communication resources such as maps in an effective and efficient manner. In our contribution we will show how flood evacuation maps may be produced by integrating the needs with respect to stakeholder communication as well as the preferences of different end-users