The rare event risk in African emerging stock markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic distribution of the extreme daily stock returns in African stock markets over the period 1996‐2007 and examine the implications for downside risk measurement. Design/methodology/approach – Extreme value theory methods are used to model adequately the extreme minimum daily returns in a number of African emerging stock markets. Findings – The empirical results indicate that the generalised logistic distribution best fitted the empirical data over the period of study. Practical implications – Using the generalised extreme value and normal distributions for risk assessment could lead to an underestimation of the likelihood of extreme share price declines which could potentially lead to inadequate protection against catastrophic losses. Originality/value – To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study to examine the lower tail distribution of daily returns for African emerging stock markets

The stock market reaction to stock dividends in Nigeria and their information content

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine whether stock dividend announcements create value for companies traded on the Nigerian stock market and to ascertain the nature of the information such announcements convey. Design/methodology/approach - A standard event study methodology, employing the market model, is applied to determine the abnormal returns both on and surrounding the stock dividend announcement date. A sample is broken down based on the timing of announcements and on the frequency with which the announcing companies' shares are traded. The authors also examine the information content of stock dividends by applying the x 2 technique to test the level of association between earnings, cash dividends and stock dividends. Findings - The findings suggest that companies that choose their own announcement date outside the Nigerian stock exchange announcement window experience positive abnormal returns if their stock is more frequently traded and negative abnormal returns if their stock is less frequently traded. In addition, support is found for both the cash substitution hypothesis and the signalling hypothesis as explanations for the information stock dividends convey to shareholders. Research limitations/implications - The small number of companies in the "early announcement" group may not permit a definitive view to be established about the stock market reaction to early stock dividend announcements for this group of companies. Practical implications - The findings are of practical relevance to researchers, practitioners and investors interested in companies listed on the Nigerian stock market as they reveal the extent to which the shares reflect fundamental information from corporate announcements. Originality/value - This paper adds to the very limited academic research on the stock market reaction to stock dividend announcements in Nigeria

An Investigation of the Weak Form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis for the Kuwait Stock Exchange

This article investigates the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE). In particular, it tests whether share returns on the KSE exhibit patterns which may be used to predict future share price changes. Ten filter rules are tested on weekly data for 42 firms over the period 1998–2011. The results suggest that the KSE was not weak-form efficient because patterns and trends were present in security prices. In addition, the results are consistent with the substantive literature which has argued that emerging stock markets are informationally inefficient, such as Fifield, Power and Sinclair (2005, 2008) and Xu (2010) and particularly those early studies of Al-Shamali (1989) and Al-Loughani and Moosa (1999) that looked at trading rules for the KSE. </jats:p

The relationship between South Asian stock returns and macroeconomic variables

This article investigates whether economic variables have explanatory power for share returns in South Asian stock markets. In particular, using data for four South Asian emerging stock markets over the period 1998 – 2012, the article examines the influence of a selection of local, regional and global economic variables in explaining equity returns; most previous studies that have examined this issue have tended to focus on only local and/or global factors. Important factors are identified by distilling the macroeconomic variables into principal components. Economic activities, real interest rates, real exchange rates and the trade balance represent local factors. Regional factors are represented by inter-regional trade and regional economic activity while global factors are represented by world financial asset returns and world economic activity. The Vector Autoregression results suggest that the South Asian markets examined are not efficient. Both local and regional factors can directly and indirectly explain Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan stock returns while the lagged returns of the Pakistani stock market and world economic activity can explain Indian stock returns

Further evidence on the efficiency of the Chinese stock markets: A note

This paper examines the efficiency of the Chinese A-share and B-share markets following the deregulation of the B-share market which widened ownership to include domestic investors. Applying parametric and non-parametric variance ratio tests to the daily data of 370 shares over 1996-2005, the paper finds that A-shares are more efficient than B-shares, although the efficiency of both markets has improved following the regulatory change. Overall, the results suggest that the Chinese stock markets are characterised by information asymmetry, although the timely access to high quality information that domestic investors enjoy has improved the efficiency of the B-share market.

Investment in Central and Eastern European equities: An investigation of the practices and viewpoints of practitioners

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the issues faced by institutional investors looking to invest in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. In particular, the paper seeks to ascertain the views of practitioners on the reasons for undertaking CEE investment, the structures of their investment processes for the CEE region, the barriers to CEE investment, and the future of the CEE region. Design/methodology/approach – A series of semi-structured interviews was conducted with institutional investors who had substantial knowledge and experience of investing in the CEE region. Findings – The findings indicated that funds followed a bottom-up approach whereby they researched company fundamentals and then applied a macroeconomic overview in their decision. The risks considered were not those frequently discussed in the current literature. For example, while currency risk and political risk were not seen as problematic, interviewees were concerned with liquidity problems and corporate governance issues. Finally, investors thought that the economic growth of the CEE region, together with its convergence with the EU, would create a more attractive investment environment than that available in other emerging market regions. Originality/value – The paper addresses the more qualitative aspects of CEE investment decisions, such as perceptions about the risks of acquiring shares in CEE firms, by analysing practitioner perspectives on equity investment in the region. This qualitative approach facilitates an investigation of issues which cannot be captured in quantitative analyses.Eastern Europe, Emerging markets, Equity capital, Europe, International investments, Investment funds