Heuristics and Biases in the Intuitive Projection of Retail Sales

Retail merchandise buyers are shown to exhibit a nonregressive bias when making sales projections. A quantitative model based on the principle of statistical regression is found to outperform the judgmental sales predictions of experienced buyers. Implications for the appropriate roles of intuitive and model-based decision making in retail merchandise buying are discussed

Comparison of remifentanil versus fentanyl general anesthesia for short outpatient urologic procedures

Study objectives. To compare the effect of remifentanil versus fentanyl isoflurane general anesthesia on Aldrete score, emergence, extubation and discharge times from the operating room (OR) and postanesthesia care unit (PACU) following short outpatient urologic procedures (panendoscopy and cystoscopy, bladder hydrodilatation, stent placement). Patients and methods. 40 patients 18 years of age or older scheduled for short elective outpatient urological procedures with an expected duration of less than 30 minutes. Following Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval and written informed consent, 40 American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical class 1-3 adult outpatients were enrolled and equally (n=20) randomized into remifentanil and fentanyl groups. Preoperatively, all subjects received intravenous (IV) midazolam 1-2 mg and were induced with propofol 2 mg/kg IV. Muscle relaxation was achieved with succinylcholine or rocuronium, followed by intubation. The remifentanil group received remifentanil 1 g/kg IV at induction with a maintenance dose of remifentanil 0.1 to 2 g/kg/min IV in the presence of 60% nitrous oxide (N2O)/40% oxygen (O2) and end-tidal isoflurane of 0.3 to 0.4% (for amnesia). The fentanyl group received fentanyl 2 g/kg IV at induction, maintenance dose of fentanyl 2 to 3 g/kg IV intermittent bolus, and 60% N2O/40% O2 with 2% end-tidal isoflurane. Muscle relaxation was reversed at the end of anesthesia as needed. Times for OR entry, emergence, extubation, total OR time (entry to exit) and PACU discharge time, as well as Aldrete scores at time of OR exit and PACU discharge were determined. Data was evaluated by ANOVA, t-test and Mann-Whitney tests. A p<0.05 value was considered statistically significant. Results. There was no significant difference between groups in age, gender, weight, ASA class, PACU analgesic or antiemetic use, or times of emergence, extubation, OR exit and PACU discharge. There was a significant difference (p<0.05) in OR exit Aldrete score but not PACU discharge Aldrete score. No adverse events were noted. Conclusions. While there was no difference between the remifentanil and fentanyl groups regarding recovery time from OR and PACU, remifentanil patients had significantly better OR exit Aldrete scores with less sedation upon arrival at phase I PACU recovery than the fentanyl group. This anesthesia technique may prove helpful for fast-track eligibility of these patients

Unraveling the causes of radiation belt enhancements

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94606/1/eost16149.pd

Nurses\u27 Alumnae Association Bulletin - Volume 18 Number 1

Alumnae Notes Central Dressing Room Committee Reports Digest of Alumnae Association Meetings Graduation Awards - 1952 Greetings from Miss Childs Greetings from the President Marriages Modern Trends in Orthopaedic Surgery Necrology New Arrivals Physical Advances at Jefferson Hospital - 1953 Staff Activities - 1952-1953 Student Activities The Artificial Heart Lung Machin

Characteristics of a Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas) Assemblage in Northwestern Florida Determined During a Hypothermic Stunning Event

A hypothermic stunning event (i.e., cold-stunning event) during late Dec. 2000 and early Jan. 2001 involving an unprecedented number of sea turtles provided an opportunity to characterize the green turtle (Chelonia mydas) assemblage in St. Joseph Bay (Gulf County, Florida). In addition to 388 green turtles, the 401 cold-stunned turtles comprised 10 Kemp\u27s ridleys (Lepidochelys kempii) and three loggerheads (Caretta caretta). Most (337/401) of the turtles survived and were eventually released. To place this event in perspective, we categorize sea turtle cold-stunning events in the eastern United States as either acute or chronic. Acute cold-stunning events, like the one in St. Joseph Bay, occur only during unusually cold winters in shallow-water areas (\u3c 2m), where sea turtles are year-round residents. These are short-lived (\u3c 2 wk) events with low mortality rates (\u3c 30%) that affect principally green turtles. Chronic cold-stunning events occur every winter in areas where sea turtles are seasonal residents. These are long-lived (1-3 mo) events with high mortality rates (\u3e 60%) that affect primarily Kemp\u27s ridleys. All of the green turtles from St. Joseph Bay were neritic-phase juveniles, and the mean straight-line carapace length of this group was 36.6 cm (range = 25.0-75.3 cm, SD = 8.9). This assemblage of juvenile green turtles is the first documented along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Sequencing of mtDNA (mitochondrial DNA) from tissue samples taken from 255 of the green turtles revealed that about 81% were from the nesting populations in the United States (Florida) and Mexico (Yucatan). This assemblage is unusual in the United States because it does not have a substantial representation from the nesting population in Costa Rica (Tortuguero), the Atlantic\u27s largest green turtle nesting population. Based on necropsies of 51 of the green turtles, the sex ratio of this assemblage was female-biased (3.25 females: 1 male), which may be a result of warm incubation temperatures on the nesting beaches in Florida. The majority of the material found in the gastrointestinal tracts of the green turtles that died was turtle grass (Thalassia testudinum). This was the first time turtle grass has been identified as the primary diet of juvenile green turtles anywhere in the continental United States. Green turtles in St. Joseph Bay appear to have few direct threats, but the seagrass upon which these turtles primarily forage has suffered extensive damage from boat propellers

High stakes and low bars: How international recognition shapes the conduct of civil wars

When rebel groups engage incumbent governments in war for control of the state, questions of international recognition arise. International recognition determines which combatants can draw on state assets, receive overt military aid, and borrow as sovereigns—all of which can have profound consequences for the military balance during civil war. How do third-party states and international organizations determine whom to treat as a state's official government during civil war? Data from the sixty-one center-seeking wars initiated from 1945 to 2014 indicate that military victory is not a prerequisite for recognition. Instead, states generally rely on a simple test: control of the capital city. Seizing the capital does not foreshadow military victory. Civil wars often continue for many years after rebels take control and receive recognition. While geopolitical and economic motives outweigh the capital control test in a small number of important cases, combatants appear to anticipate that holding the capital will be sufficient for recognition. This expectation generates perverse incentives. In effect, the international community rewards combatants for capturing or holding, by any means necessary, an area with high concentrations of critical infrastructure and civilians. In the majority of cases where rebels contest the capital, more than half of its infrastructure is damaged or the majority of civilians are displaced (or both), likely fueling long-term state weakness

Stabilized tin-oxide-based oxidation/reduction catalysts

The invention described herein involves a novel approach to the production of oxidation/reduction catalytic systems. The present invention serves to stabilize the tin oxide reducible metal-oxide coating by co-incorporating at least another metal-oxide species, such as zirconium. In one embodiment, a third metal-oxide species is incorporated, selected from the group consisting of cerium, lanthanum, hafnium, and ruthenium. The incorporation of the additional metal oxide components serves to stabilize the active tin-oxide layer in the catalytic process during high-temperature operation in a reducing environment (e.g., automobile exhaust). Moreover, the additional metal oxides are active components due to their oxygen-retention capabilities. Together, these features provide a mechanism to extend the range of operation of the tin-oxide-based catalyst system for automotive applications, while maintaining the existing advantages

Methodology for the effective stabilization of tin-oxide-based oxidation/reduction catalysts

The invention described herein involves a novel approach to the production of oxidation/reduction catalytic systems. The present invention serves to stabilize the tin oxide reducible metal-oxide coating by co-incorporating at least another metal-oxide species, such as zirconium. In one embodiment, a third metal-oxide species is incorporated, selected from the group consisting of cerium, lanthanum, hafnium, and ruthenium. The incorporation of the additional metal oxide components serves to stabilize the active tin-oxide layer in the catalytic process during high-temperature operation in a reducing environment (e.g., automobile exhaust). Moreover, the additional metal oxides are active components due to their oxygen-retention capabilities. Together, these features provide a mechanism to extend the range of operation of the tin-oxide-based catalyst system for automotive applications, while maintaining the existing advantages

Inter-laboratory automation of the in vitro micronucleus assay using imaging flow cytometry and deep learning

The in vitro micronucleus assay is a globally significant method for DNA damage quantification used for regulatory compound safety testing in addition to inter-individual monitoring of environmental, lifestyle and occupational factors. However, it relies on time-consuming and user-subjective manual scoring. Here we show that imaging flow cytometry and deep learning image classification represents a capable platform for automated, inter-laboratory operation. Images were captured for the cytokinesis-block micronucleus (CBMN) assay across three laboratories using methyl methanesulphonate (1.25–5.0 μg/mL) and/or carbendazim (0.8–1.6 μg/mL) exposures to TK6 cells. Human-scored image sets were assembled and used to train and test the classification abilities of the “DeepFlow” neural network in both intra- and inter-laboratory contexts. Harnessing image diversity across laboratories yielded a network able to score unseen data from an entirely new laboratory without any user configuration. Image classification accuracies of 98%, 95%, 82% and 85% were achieved for ‘mononucleates’, ‘binucleates’, ‘mononucleates with MN’ and ‘binucleates with MN’, respectively. Successful classifications of ‘trinucleates’ (90%) and ‘tetranucleates’ (88%) in addition to ‘other or unscorable’ phenotypes (96%) were also achieved. Attempts to classify extremely rare, tri- and tetranucleated cells with micronuclei into their own categories were less successful (≤ 57%). Benchmark dose analyses of human or automatically scored micronucleus frequency data yielded quantitation of the same equipotent concentration regardless of scoring method. We conclude that this automated approach offers significant potential to broaden the practical utility of the CBMN method across industry, research and clinical domains. We share our strategy using openly-accessible frameworks