Learning From Complexity: Effects Of Prior Accidents And Incidents On Airlines' Learning

Using data on accidents and incidents experienced by U.S. commercial airlines from 1983 to 1997, we investigated variation in firm learning by examining whether firms learn more from errors with heterogeneous or homogeneous causes. We measured learning by a reduction in airline accident and incident rates, while controlling for other factors related to accidents and incidents. Our results show that heterogeneity is generally better for learning, as prior heterogeneity in the causes of errors decreases subsequent accident rates, producing a deeper, broader search for causality than simple explanations like >blame the pilot.> The benefits of heterogeneity, however, apply mainly to specialist airlines. Generalist airlines learn, instead, from outside factors such as the experience of others and general improvements in technology. These results suggest a theory of learning across organizational forms: complex forms benefit from simple information, and simple forms benefit from complex information. The implications of our study for learning theories and work on organizational errors are discussed.Business Administratio

Why HITnet kiosks didn\u27t hit the mark for sexual health education of Western Australian Aboriginal youth

Objective: To assess the use, appropriateness of, and staff feedback on specific sexual health modules, which were installed on Heuristic Interactive Technology (HITnet) kiosks at Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services (ACCHS). The HITnet kiosks were aimed at Aboriginal youth visiting these sites. Methods: Modules on the HITnet kiosks were assessed for (1) cultural appropriateness using Yunkaporta’s Aboriginal pedagogy framework and (2) compliance with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) advice on key elements for comprehensive sexual health education for young people. Data measuring kiosk use were obtained through HITnet kiosk activity reports. An online survey of ACCHS staff was used to qualitatively assess use of, and staff perceptions of, HITnet kiosks. Results: Kiosk modules were consistent with seven of the eight elements of Yunkaporta’s framework and all of the WHO recommendations. The most popular module generated 3,066 purposeful sessions and the least popular module generated 724 purposeful sessions across nine sites in 2012. While teenagers were the most frequent of the kiosk user groups (39.5% in 2012), the majority of users (56%) were not in the target group (i.e. elders 4%, adults 25%, children 27%). Key issues reported by ACCHS staff (n=11) included: lack of clarity regarding staff responsibility for overseeing kiosk functionality; kiosks attracting “inappropriate ages”; and “lack of privacy” based on kiosk location, screen visibility, and absence of headphones preventing discreet access. Conclusions: The modules were tailored to a young Aboriginal audience through technology thought to be appealing to this group. However, barriers to use of the kiosk included kiosk design features, location, and lack of clarity around responsibility for kiosk operation. Implications: Aboriginal youth need easy access to sexual health messages in a ‘safe’, non-judgmental space. Information and communication that is accessible via personal and mobile devices may be a better vehicle than public kiosks

Aerothermal modeling program. Phase 2, element B: Flow interaction experiment

NASA has instituted an extensive effort to improve the design process and data base for the hot section components of gas turbine engines. The purpose of element B is to establish a benchmark quality data set that consists of measurements of the interaction of circular jets with swirling flow. Such flows are typical of those that occur in the primary zone of modern annular combustion liners. Extensive computations of the swirling flows are to be compared with the measurements for the purpose of assessing the accuracy of current physical models used to predict such flows

Bayesian estimation applied to multiple species

Observed data are often contaminated by undiscovered interlopers, leading to biased parameter estimation. Here we present BEAMS (Bayesian estimation applied to multiple species) which significantly improves on the standard maximum likelihood approach in the case where the probability for each data point being “pure” is known. We discuss the application of BEAMS to future type-Ia supernovae (SNIa) surveys, such as LSST, which are projected to deliver over a million supernovae light curves without spectra. The multiband light curves for each candidate will provide a probability of being Ia (pure) but the full sample will be significantly contaminated with other types of supernovae and transients. Given a sample of N supernovae with mean probability, ⟨P⟩, of being Ia, BEAMS delivers parameter constraints equal to N⟨P⟩ spectroscopically confirmed SNIa. In addition BEAMS can be simultaneously used to tease apart different families of data and to recover properties of the underlying distributions of those families (e.g. the type-Ibc and II distributions). Hence BEAMS provides a unified classification and parameter estimation methodology which may be useful in a diverse range of problems such as photometric redshift estimation or, indeed, any parameter estimation problem where contamination is an issue

The FHD/ε\boldsymbol{\varepsilon}ppsilon Epoch of Reionization Power Spectrum Pipeline

Epoch of Reionization data analysis requires unprecedented levels of accuracy in radio interferometer pipelines. We have developed an imaging power spectrum analysis to meet these requirements and generate robust 21 cm EoR measurements. In this work, we build a signal path framework to mathematically describe each step in the analysis, from data reduction in the FHD package to power spectrum generation in the $\varepsilon$ppsilon package. In particular, we focus on the distinguishing characteristics of FHD/$\varepsilon$ppsilon: highly accurate spectral calibration, extensive data verification products, and end-to-end error propagation. We present our key data analysis products in detail to facilitate understanding of the prominent systematics in image-based power spectrum analyses. As a verification to our analysis, we also highlight a full-pipeline analysis simulation to demonstrate signal preservation and lack of signal loss. This careful treatment ensures that the FHD/$\varepsilon$ppsilon power spectrum pipeline can reduce radio interferometric data to produce credible 21 cm EoR measurements.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures, accepted by PAS

A proposed search for dark-matter axions in the 0.6-16 micro-eV range

A proposed experiment is described to search for dark matter axions in the mass range 0.6 to 16 micro-eV. The method is based on the Primakoff conversion of axions into monochromatic microwave photons inside a tunable microwave cavity in a large volume high field magnet, as described by Sikivie. This proposal capitalizes on the availability of two Axicell magnets from the decommissioned Mirror Fusion Test Facility (MFTF-B) fusion machine at LLNL. Assuming a local dark matter density in axions of rho = 0.3 GeV/cu cm, the axion would be found or ruled out at the 97 pct. c.l. in the above mass range in 48 months

Aerothermal modeling program, phase 2

The main objectives of the Aerothermal Modeling Program, Phase 2 are: to develop an improved numerical scheme for incorporation in a 3-D combustor flow model; to conduct a benchmark quality experiment to study the interaction of a primary jet with a confined swirling crossflow and to assess current and advanced turbulence and scalar transport models; and to conduct experimental evaluation of the air swirler interaction with fuel injectors, assessments of current two-phase models, and verification the improved spray evaporation/dispersion models