Conservation organizations need to consider adaptive capacity: why local input matters

Conservation organizations are increasingly applying adaptive capacity assessments in response to escalating climate change impacts. These assessments are essential to identify climate risks to ecosystems, prioritize management interventions, maximize the effectiveness of conservation actions, and ensure conservation resources are allocated appropriately. Despite an extensive literature on the topic, there is little agreement on the most relevant factors needed to support local scale initiatives, and additional guidance is needed to clarify how adaptive capacity should be assessed. This article discusses why adaptive capacity assessment represents a critical tool supporting conservation planning and management. It also evaluates key factors guiding conservation NGOs conducting these assessments in tropical island communities, and explores alternative priorities based on input from academic experts and key local stakeholders. Our results demonstrate that important differences exist between local stakeholders and nonlocal academic experts on key factors affecting adaptation and coping mechanisms. The exclusion of local community input affects the validity of adaptive capacity assessment findings, and has significant implications for the prioritization and effectiveness of conservation strategies and funding allocation

Adaptive knowledge dynamics and emergent artificial societies: ethnographically based multi-agent simulations of behavioural adaptation in agro-climatic systems

The goal of this research is to enhance an ethnographic understanding of agricultural adaptation to environmental change, within the context of an anthropological theory of 'adaptive dynamics' [Bennett, 1976], using computer-based techniques. An agent-based model was developed to investigate the 'transitional' adaptive strategies of farmers in south-east England based on data collected during fieldwork. Using ethnographic evidence, the model included the interactions of differing structures of knowledge relating to possible environmental change. This resulted in a variety of adaptive, non-adaptive and indeed mal-adaptive responses by agents in the system and thus, differing degrees of success for individual actors and the group as a whole. The choices made in response to change and their consequences were analysed. Success was measured in terms of minimising vulnerability, achieving sustainable adaptation and meeting economic objectives. Adaptive responses classified using criteria proposed by John W. Bennett [1976], under the heading of adaptive dynamics and incorporated within an agent-based model, allowed a refined understanding of the ethnographic data that was collected exposing new insights and areas for further investigation. The agent-based model illustrated the importance of Bennett's model in illuminating the benefits of indigenous strategies for successful adaptation and sustainability. The broad scope of this research means that it is aimed at an interdisciplinary audience. It is organised such that each chapter will contain a general introductory overview which requires little specialist knowledge, while further reading will entail greater technical detail, which will assume some specialist knowledge. Specialist areas covered include simulation toolkits, declarative programming software and social science research methodologies amongst others. This research is intended to be a guide for non-computing anthropologists to understand the potential in developing simple computer models to complement and support their traditional research methods. Experienced modellers may also benefit from specific techniques described from the social sciences domain, such as the participatory knowledge engineering process developed using ethnographic techniques, which may enhance conventional modelling approaches

Using matching methods to link social and physical analyses for sustainability planning

Sustainability planning requires an understanding of social and physical systems and their interactions. However, there is a mismatch between the methods of the social sciences and those of the natural sciences. Although there have been numerous attempts to adapt the methods of the natural sciences for use in the social sciences, the results are usually unsatisfactory. Key features of societies such as institutions and power relationships, and of individuals such as the rich symbolic systems by which individuals transmit knowledge, do not lend themselves to the standard analytical methods of the natural sciences. We argue that rather than transfer the methods of one discipline to the other, an appropriate goal can be to seek “matching methods” that work at the boundary between the social and natural sciences. We discuss how knowledge elicitation tools (KnETs) can be used to develop matching methods. An explicit example is provided by combining a KnETs-derived decision tree with a physical water allocation model that was built using the scenario-based Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software. We conclude that, through a relatively weak link, the social and physical domains can be effectively combined for integrated planning using matching methods, thereby permitting a more holistic approach to sustainable resource planning

Assessing Water Policies and Farmers’ Vulnerability in Groundwater Irrigation Systems

Spain is the most arid country in Europe and water use as well as water depletion and environmental degradation have slowly become a matter of social concern. Balancing the two objectives of “water for rural livelihoods” and “water for nature” constitutes a difficult challenge for the water Administration. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of water conservation policies in the Upper Guadiana River basin (Spain), where intensive irrigated agriculture resulted in the overexploitation of the Western La Mancha aquifer and the subsequent degradation of the highly valuable wetlands. Focus is made on farmers’ vulnerability to these policies. The methodology combines qualitative and quantitative aspects by the integration of an economic model and a vulnerability analysis. The economic model simulates farmers’ behaviour facing different policy options, and the results are used as an input for the analysis of vulnerability based on farm income indicators, through the elaboration of a classification tree. The model integration presented in this work proves that, in the case of the Upper Guadiana, different farm types stand diverse policy impacts and that structural, behavioural and institutional aspects play a major role in those impacts, being small and legal farms the most vulnerable ones

Principles for co-producing climate services: Practical insights from FRACTAL

Co-production is increasingly acknowledged as the preferred mode for producing climate services, especially in complex and information-limited decision contexts. This paper contributes knowledge on practices and processes that can enable effective climate services in such contexts, through sharing experiences from the Future Resilience for African CiTies And Lands (FRACTAL) project.FRACTAL focused on informing actions to tackle climate-related issues in nine cities in six southern African countries over a six-year period and, in parallel, developing research findings and insights. Principles for effectively co-producing climate services were collaboratively identified by the project team, after which practical insights were detailed by analysing the body of evidence produced during FRACTAL using qualitative methods. This analysis helped to understand how principles were engendered, as well as associated challenges.While many principles identified resonate with the growing body of relevant knowledge, practical insights from this study contribute to understanding ‘how’ principles can be engendered. Experiences emphasise the importance of engaging participants’ emotions, avoiding centring on climate information, using a “third space” to facilitate equitable engagements, directing resources towards having fun and learning actively, process-driven iteration, focusing on contemporary issues with which stakeholders can connect, introducing a pathways framing, and embedding researchers in decision-making contexts. This constitutes a more comprehensive set of principles than was previously available in the literature. Application of these principles and the transdisciplinary framing, which was core to FRACTAL, supports a shift away from a focus on ‘products’ to knowledge co-production ‘processes’ where collaborative learning is the defining characteristic of climate services