Modelling the impact of lockdown-easing measures on cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths in England.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the potential impacts of successive lockdown-easing measures in England, at a point in the COVID-19 pandemic when community transmission levels were relatively high. DESIGN: We developed a Bayesian model to infer incident cases and reproduction number (R) in England, from incident death data. We then used this to forecast excess cases and deaths in multiple plausible scenarios in which R increases at one or more time points. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: Publicly available national incident death data for COVID-19 were examined. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Excess cumulative cases and deaths forecast at 90 days, in simulated scenarios of plausible increases in R after successive easing of lockdown in England, compared with a baseline scenario where R remained constant. RESULTS: Our model inferred an R of 0.75 on 13 May when England first started easing lockdown. In the most conservative scenario modelled where R increased to 0.80 as lockdown was eased further on 1 June and then remained constant, the model predicted an excess 257 (95% CI 108 to 492) deaths and 26 447 (95% CI 11 105 to 50 549) cumulative cases over 90 days. In the scenario with maximal increases in R (but staying ≤1), the model predicts 3174 (95% CI 1334 to 6060) excess cumulative deaths and 421 310 (95% CI 177 012 to 804 811) cases. Observed data from the forecasting period aligned most closely to the scenario in which R increased to 0.85 on 1 June, and 0.9 on 4 July. CONCLUSIONS: When levels of transmission are high, even small changes in R with easing of lockdown can have significant impacts on expected cases and deaths, even if R remains ≤1. This will have a major impact on population health, tracing systems and healthcare services in England. Following an elimination strategy rather than one of maintenance of R ≤1 would substantially mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic within England

The role of priors in Bayesian models of perception

In a recent opinion article, Pellicano and Burr (2012) speculate about how a Bayesian architecture might explain many features of autism ranging from stereotypical movement to atypical phenomenological experience. We share the view of other commentators on this paper (Brock, 2012; Friston et al., 2013; Van Boxtel and Lu, 2013) that applying computational methods to psychiatric disorders is valuable (Montague et al., 2012). However, we argue that in this instance there are fundamental technical and conceptual problems which must be addressed if such a perspective is to become useful. Based on the Bayesian observer model (Figure 1), Pellicano and Burr speculate that perceptual abnormalities in autism can be explained by differences in how beliefs about the world are formed, or combined with sensory information, and that sensory processing itself is unaffected (although, confusingly, they also speak of sensory atypicalities in autism). In computational terms, the authors are suggesting that the likelihood function is unaltered in autism and that the posterior is atypical either because of differences in the prior, or because of the way in which prior and likelihood are combined. The latter statement is problematic because within the framework of probability theory, the combination of these two components is fixed as determined by Bayes' theorem: they are multiplied. Put simply, a mathematically consistent Bayesian model cannot accommodate a perceptual abnormality in autism that is due to the way in which belief and sensory information, i.e., prior and likelihood, are combined. Furthermore, if sensory processing is mathematically represented as a likelihood function (as it typically is within Bayesian models), then changes in the prior cannot lead to changes in sensation, as the authors claim (they can only lead to changes in perception)

Expatriate performance in international assignments: The role of cultural intelligence as dynamic intercultural competency

This paper investigates the affects of dynamic intercultural competency of cultural intelligence and its dimensions on expatriate job performance. Based on sample of 332 expatriates working in Malaysia, cultural intelligence found to be a vital intercultural competency that facilitates expatriates job performance in international assignments. Specifically, the results of this study reveal that expatriates in Malaysia with greater meta-cognitive and behavioral cultural intelligence fared better in their contextual performance. Greater assignment specific performance related to greater behavioral cultural intelligence. The findings of this study contributes to the body of knowledge in the cross-cultural management field as well as practical implication to expatriating firms especially in the area of selection and hiring of international candidates

Doing business in global arena: an examination of the relationship between cultural intelligence and cross-cultural adjustment

The study examines the relationship between cultural intelligence (CQ) and cross-cultural adjustment (CCA) using a field study of 332 expatriates in Malaysia. The findings of this study reveal that CQ is a vital cross-cultural competency that facilitates expatriates CCA in international assignment. Specifically, the result of this study reveals that greater general adjustment is related to greater motivational and meta-cognitive CQ. The more successful interaction adjustment is associated with greater motivational, metacognitive and cognitive CQ. Greater work adjustment is related to greater motivational CQ. Motivational component of CQ is the only dimensions of CQ that is significantly related to all three dimensions of CCA. The findings of this study have significant contribution to the body of knowledge in the cross-cultural management field as well as practical implication to expatriating firms especially in the area of selection and hiring of international candidates

Cultural intelligence and expatriate performance in global assignment: the mediating role of adjustment

This paper investigates the relationship between cultural intelligence and job performance, and the mediating role of cross-cultural adjustment in that relationship. Based on sample of 332 expatriates working in Malaysia, cultural intelligence predicts job performance, and both the interaction and work adjustment mediates the relationship. The findings of this study contributes to the body of knowledge in the cross-cultural management field as well as practical implication to expatriating firms especially in the area of selection and training of international candidates

Disaggregating physiological components of cortisol output: A novel approach to cortisol analysis in a clinical sample - A proof-of-principle study.

Although childhood adversity (CA) increases risk for subsequent mental illnesses, developmental mechanisms underpinning this association remain unclear. The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPAA) is one candidate system potentially linking CA with psychopathology. However, determining developmental effects of CA on HPAA output and differentiating these from effects of current illness has proven difficult. Different aspects of HPAA output are governed by differentiable physiological mechanisms. Disaggregating HPAA output according to its biological components (baseline tonic cortisol, background diurnal variation, phasic stress response) may improve precision of associations with CA and/or psychopathology. In a novel proof-of-principle investigation we test whether different predictors, CA (distal risk factor) and current depressive symptoms, show distinct associations with dissociable HPAA components. A clinical group (aged 16-25) at high-risk for developing severe psychopathology (n = 20) were compared to age and sex matched healthy controls (n = 21). Cortisol was measured at waking (x4), following stress induction (x8), and during a time-environment-matched non-stress condition. Using piecewise multilevel modeling, stress responses were disaggregated into increase and decrease, while controlling for waking cortisol, background diurnal output and confounding variables. Elevated waking cortisol was specifically associated with higher CA scores. Higher non-stress cortisol was specifically associated with higher depressive scores. Following stress induction, depressive symptoms attenuated cortisol increase, whilst CA attenuated cortisol decrease. The results support a differential HPAA dysregulation hypothesis where physiologically dissociable components of HPAA output are differentially associated with distal (CA) or proximal (depressive symptoms) predictors. This proof-of-principle study demonstrates that future cortisol analyses need to disaggregate biologically independent mechanisms of HPAA output.Wellcome Trus

Shift toward prior knowledge confers a perceptual advantage in early psychosis and psychosis-prone healthy individuals

Many neuropsychiatric illnesses are associated with psychosis, i.e., hallucinations (perceptions in the absence of causative stimuli) and delusions (irrational, often bizarre beliefs). Current models of brain function view perception as a combination of two distinct sources of information: bottom-up sensory input and top-down influences from prior knowledge. This framework may explain hallucinations and delusions. Here, we characterized the balance between visual bottom-up and top-down processing in people with early psychosis (study 1) and in psychosis-prone, healthy individuals (study 2) to elucidate the mechanisms that might contribute to the emergence of psychotic experiences. Through a specialized mental-health service, we identified unmedicated individuals who experience early psychotic symptoms but fall below the threshold for a categorical diagnosis. We observed that, in early psychosis, there was a shift in information processing favoring prior knowledge over incoming sensory evidence. In the complementary study, we capitalized on subtle variations in perception and belief in the general population that exhibit graded similarity with psychotic experiences (schizotypy). We observed that the degree of psychosis proneness in healthy individuals, and, specifically, the presence of subtle perceptual alterations, is also associated with stronger reliance on prior knowledge. Although, in the current experimental studies, this shift conferred a performance benefit, under most natural viewing situations, it may provoke anomalous perceptual experiences. Overall, we show that early psychosis and psychosis proneness both entail a basic shift in visual information processing, favoring prior knowledge over incoming sensory evidence. The studies provide complementary insights to a mechanism by which psychotic symptoms may emerge

Effect of surgical experience and spine subspecialty on the reliability of the {AO} Spine Upper Cervical Injury Classification System

OBJECTIVE The objective of this paper was to determine the interobserver reliability and intraobserver reproducibility of the AO Spine Upper Cervical Injury Classification System based on surgeon experience (< 5 years, 5–10 years, 10–20 years, and > 20 years) and surgical subspecialty (orthopedic spine surgery, neurosurgery, and "other" surgery). METHODS A total of 11,601 assessments of upper cervical spine injuries were evaluated based on the AO Spine Upper Cervical Injury Classification System. Reliability and reproducibility scores were obtained twice, with a 3-week time interval. Descriptive statistics were utilized to examine the percentage of accurately classified injuries, and Pearson’s chi-square or Fisher’s exact test was used to screen for potentially relevant differences between study participants. Kappa coefficients (κ) determined the interobserver reliability and intraobserver reproducibility. RESULTS The intraobserver reproducibility was substantial for surgeon experience level (< 5 years: 0.74 vs 5–10 years: 0.69 vs 10–20 years: 0.69 vs > 20 years: 0.70) and surgical subspecialty (orthopedic spine: 0.71 vs neurosurgery: 0.69 vs other: 0.68). Furthermore, the interobserver reliability was substantial for all surgical experience groups on assessment 1 (< 5 years: 0.67 vs 5–10 years: 0.62 vs 10–20 years: 0.61 vs > 20 years: 0.62), and only surgeons with > 20 years of experience did not have substantial reliability on assessment 2 (< 5 years: 0.62 vs 5–10 years: 0.61 vs 10–20 years: 0.61 vs > 20 years: 0.59). Orthopedic spine surgeons and neurosurgeons had substantial intraobserver reproducibility on both assessment 1 (0.64 vs 0.63) and assessment 2 (0.62 vs 0.63), while other surgeons had moderate reliability on assessment 1 (0.43) and fair reliability on assessment 2 (0.36). CONCLUSIONS The international reliability and reproducibility scores for the AO Spine Upper Cervical Injury Classification System demonstrated substantial intraobserver reproducibility and interobserver reliability regardless of surgical experience and spine subspecialty. These results support the global application of this classification system

Differential predictors for alcohol use in adolescents as a function of familial risk

Abstract: Traditional models of future alcohol use in adolescents have used variable-centered approaches, predicting alcohol use from a set of variables across entire samples or populations. Following the proposition that predictive factors may vary in adolescents as a function of family history, we used a two-pronged approach by first defining clusters of familial risk, followed by prediction analyses within each cluster. Thus, for the first time in adolescents, we tested whether adolescents with a family history of drug abuse exhibit a set of predictors different from adolescents without a family history. We apply this approach to a genetic risk score and individual differences in personality, cognition, behavior (risk-taking and discounting) substance use behavior at age 14, life events, and functional brain imaging, to predict scores on the alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT) at age 14 and 16 in a sample of adolescents (N = 1659 at baseline, N = 1327 at follow-up) from the IMAGEN cohort, a longitudinal community-based cohort of adolescents. In the absence of familial risk (n = 616), individual differences in baseline drinking, personality measures (extraversion, negative thinking), discounting behaviors, life events, and ventral striatal activation during reward anticipation were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, while the overall model explained 22% of the variance in future AUDIT. In the presence of familial risk (n = 711), drinking behavior at age 14, personality measures (extraversion, impulsivity), behavioral risk-taking, and life events were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, explaining 20.1% of the overall variance. Results suggest that individual differences in personality, cognition, life events, brain function, and drinking behavior contribute differentially to the prediction of future alcohol misuse. This approach may inform more individualized preventive interventions

Differential predictors for alcohol use in adolescents as a function of familial risk

Abstract: Traditional models of future alcohol use in adolescents have used variable-centered approaches, predicting alcohol use from a set of variables across entire samples or populations. Following the proposition that predictive factors may vary in adolescents as a function of family history, we used a two-pronged approach by first defining clusters of familial risk, followed by prediction analyses within each cluster. Thus, for the first time in adolescents, we tested whether adolescents with a family history of drug abuse exhibit a set of predictors different from adolescents without a family history. We apply this approach to a genetic risk score and individual differences in personality, cognition, behavior (risk-taking and discounting) substance use behavior at age 14, life events, and functional brain imaging, to predict scores on the alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT) at age 14 and 16 in a sample of adolescents (N = 1659 at baseline, N = 1327 at follow-up) from the IMAGEN cohort, a longitudinal community-based cohort of adolescents. In the absence of familial risk (n = 616), individual differences in baseline drinking, personality measures (extraversion, negative thinking), discounting behaviors, life events, and ventral striatal activation during reward anticipation were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, while the overall model explained 22% of the variance in future AUDIT. In the presence of familial risk (n = 711), drinking behavior at age 14, personality measures (extraversion, impulsivity), behavioral risk-taking, and life events were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, explaining 20.1% of the overall variance. Results suggest that individual differences in personality, cognition, life events, brain function, and drinking behavior contribute differentially to the prediction of future alcohol misuse. This approach may inform more individualized preventive interventions