Impact of a partial smoke-free legislation on myocardial infarction incidence, mortality and case-fatality in a population-based registry: the REGICOR Study

Abstract Background and Objective Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death, and smoking its strongest modifiable risk factor. Our aim was to determine the impact of the Spanish 2006 partial smoke-free legislation on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence, hospitalization and mortality rates, and 28-day case-fatality in Girona, Spain. Methods Using a population-based registry (the REGICOR Study), we compared population incidence, hospitalization, and mortality rates, and 28-day case-fatality in the pre- and post-ban periods (2002-2005 and 2006-2008, respectively) by binomial regression analysis adjusted for confounding factors. We also analyzed the ban's impact on the outcomes of interest using the AMI definitions of the American Heart Association (AHA)/European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the World Health Organization (WHO)-Monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular diseases (MONICA). Results In the post-ban period, AMI incidence and mortality rates significantly decreased (relative risk [RR] = 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81-0.97 and RR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.71-0.94, respectively). Incidence and mortality rates decreased in both sexes, especially in women, and in people aged 65-74 years. Former and non-smokers (passive smokers) showed diminished incidence rates. Implementation of the ban was not associated with AMI case-fatality. Models tended to be more significant with the WHO-MONICA than with the AHA/ESC definition. Conclusions The 2006 Spanish partial smoke-free legislation was associated with a decrease in population AMI incidence and mortality, particularly in women, in people aged 65-74 years, and in passive smokers. These results clarify the association between AMI mortality and the enactment of a partial smoke-free legislation and reinforce the effectiveness of smoking regulations in preventing CH

Informe Final: Projecte 2020PID-UB/017

Projecte: 2020PID-UB/017En aquest projecte s’ha explorat i utilitzat les eines del paquet d’R exams per tal de generar activitats personalitzades per als alumnes de l’assignatura de Disseny d’Experiments del grau interuniversitari UB-UPC d’Estadística. El paquet exams permet crear qüestionaris que incorporen preguntes de tipus test, numèriques o una barreja d’ambdues. Mitjançant codi R es poden generar aleatòriament diferents conjunts de dades i possibles respostes de tal manera i així els qüestionaris siguin únics per a cada alumne. Una altra avantatge que ofereix el paquet exams és que en integrar-se al Moodle un cop finalitzat el qüestionari la nota queda integrada automàticament a la base de dades de qualificacions. A més, l’alumne veu immediatament la nota i quins errors ha comès i les solucions de cada resposta. Tot i que els professors no teníem experiència prèvia amb el paquet exams, no ha sigut difícil confeccionar les preguntes ni tampoc integrar-les a la plataforma del campus virtual a través del Moodle. Al contrari, aquest procés ha resultat senzill i no hem trobat cap dificultat tècnica. L’alumnat ha respost de forma positiva, i han trobat gratificant el fet de saber la nota i els errors que havien comés en acabar el qüestionari. Per aquest motiu, creiem que l’ús del paquet exams com a part de la docència de l’assignatura és molt positiva i planegem continuar usant-lo tot explorant noves funcionalitats que ofereixi aquesta eina. Per últim, pensem que la utilització d’exams es podria estendre també a altres assignatures de anàlisis de dades i d’altres graus, com de fet s’està realitzant a l’assignatura de Disseny d’Experiments i Anàlisis de Dades (DEAD) del grau de Biomedicin

Validity of prognostic models of critical COVID-19 is variable. A systematic review with external validation

Objectives: To identify prognostic models which estimate the risk of critical COVID-19 in hospitalized patients and to assess their validation properties. Study design and setting: We conducted a systematic review in Medline (up to January 2021) of studies developing or updating a model that estimated the risk of critical COVID-19, defined as death, admission to intensive care unit, and/or use of mechanical ventilation during admission. Models were validated in two datasets with different backgrounds (HM [private Spanish hospital network], n = 1,753, and ICS [public Catalan health system], n = 1,104), by assessing discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (plots). Results: We validated 18 prognostic models. Discrimination was good in nine of them (AUCs ≥ 80%) and higher in those predicting mortality (AUCs 65%-87%) than those predicting intensive care unit admission or a composite outcome (AUCs 53%-78%). Calibration was poor in all models providing outcome's probabilities and good in four models providing a point-based score. These four models used mortality as outcome and included age, oxygen saturation, and C-reactive protein among their predictors. Conclusion: The validity of models predicting critical COVID-19 by using only routinely collected predictors is variable. Four models showed good discrimination and calibration when externally validated and are recommended for their use

Personalized assessment of the cumulative complication risk of the atrial fibrillation ablation track: The AF-TRACK calculator

Atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation strategy is associated with a non-negligible risk of complications and often requires repeat procedures (AF ablation track), implying repetitive exposure to procedural risk.The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a model to estimate individualized cumulative risk of complications in patients undergoing the AF ablation track (Atrial Fibrillation TRAck Complication risK [AF-TRACK] calculator).The model was derived from a multicenter cohort including 3762 AF ablation procedures in 2943 patients. A first regression model was fitted to predict the propensity for repeat ablation. The AF-TRACK calculator computed the risk of AF ablation track complications, considering the propensity for repeat ablation. Internal (cross-validation) and external (independent cohort) validation were assessed for discrimination capacity (area under the curve [AUC]) and goodness of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow [HL] test).Complications (N = 111) occurred in 3.7% of patients (2.9% of procedures). Predictors included female sex, heart failure, sleep apnea syndrome, and repeat procedures. The model showed fair discrimination capacity to predict complications (AUC 0.61 [0.55-0.67]) and likelihood of repeat procedure (AUC 0.62 [0.60-0.64]), with good calibration (HL χ2 12.5; P = .13). The model maintained adequate discrimination capacity (AUC 0.67 [0.57-0.77]) and calibration (HL χ2 5.6; P = .23) in the external validation cohort. The validated model was used to create the Web-based AF-TRACK calculator.The proposed risk model provides individualized estimates of the cumulative risk of complications of undergoing the AF ablation track. The AF-TRACK calculator is a validated, easy-to-use, Web-based clinical tool to calibrate the risk-to-benefit ratio of this treatment strategy.© 2022 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc

Efficacy and safety of a hexanic extract of Serenoa repens (Permixon (R)) for the treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia (LUTS/BPH): systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies

Objectives To comprehensively evaluate the efficacy and safety of the hexanic extract of Serenoa repens (HESr, Permixon (R); Pierre Fabre Medicament, Castres, France), at a dose of 320 mg daily, as monotherapy for the treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia (LUTS/BPH). Materials and methods We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective observational studies in patients with LUTS/BPH identified through searches in Medline, Web of Knowledge (Institute for Scientific Information), Scopus, the Cochrane Library, and bibliographic references up to March 2017. Articles studying S. repens extracts other than Permixon were excluded. Data were collected on International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), maximum urinary flow rate (Qmax), nocturia, quality of life, prostate volume, sexual function, and adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Data obtained from RCTs and observational studies were analysed jointly and separately using a random effects model. A sub-group analysis was performed of studies that included patients on longer-term treatment (= 1 year). Results Data from 27 studies (15 RCTs and 12 observational studies) were included for meta-analysis (total N = 5 800). Compared with placebo, the HESr was associated with 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.98 to -0.31) fewer voids/ night (P < 0.001) and an additional mean increase in Q(max) of 2.75 mL/s (95% CI 0.57 to 4.93; P = 0.01). When compared with a-blockers, the HESr showed similar improvements on IPSS (weighted mean difference [WMD] 0.57, 95% CI -0.27 to 1.42; P = 0.18) and a comparable increase in Q(max) to tamsulosin (WMD -0.02, 95% CI -0.71 to 0.66; P = 0.95). Efficacy assessed using the IPSS was similar after 6 months of treatment between the HESr and 5a-reductase inhibitors (5ARIs). Analysis of all available published data for the HESr showed a mean improvement in IPSS from baseline of -5.73 points (95% CI -6.91 to -4.54; P < 0.001). HESr did not negatively affect sexual function and no clinically relevant effect was observed on prostate-specific antigen. Prostate volume decreased slightly. Similar efficacy results were seen in patients treated for = 1 year (n = 447). The HESr had a favourable safety profile, with gastrointestinal disorders being the most frequent ADR (mean incidence of 3.8%). Conclusion The present meta-analysis, which includes all available RCTs and observational studies, shows that the HESr (Permixon) reduced nocturia and improved Q(max) compared with placebo and had a similar efficacy to tamsulosin and short-term 5ARI in relieving LUTS. HESr (Permixon) appears to be an efficacious and well-tolerated therapeutic option for the longterm medical treatment of LUTS/BPH

Oxidative stress is associated with an increased antioxidant defense in elderly subjects: a multilevel approach

Background: Studies of associations between plasma GSH-Px activity and cardiovascular risk factors have been done in humans, and contradictory results have been reported. The aim of our study was to assess the association between the scavenger antioxidant enzyme glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) activity in plasma and the presence of novel and classical cardiovascular risk factors in elderly patients. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study with baseline data from a subsample of the PREDIMED (PREvencio´n con DIeta MEDiterra´nea) study in Spain. Participants were 1,060 asymptomatic subjects at high risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), aged 55 to 80, selected from 8 primary health care centers (PHCCs). We assessed classical CVD risk factors, plasma oxidized low-density lipoproteins (ox-LDL), and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) using multilevel statistical procedures. Results: Mean GSH-Px value was 612 U/L (SE: 12 U/L), with variation between PHCCs ranging from 549 to 674 U/L (Variance = 1013.5; P,0.001). Between-participants variability within a PHCC accounted for 89% of the total variation. Both glucose and oxidized LDL were positively associated with GSH-Px activity after adjustment for possible confounder variables (P = 0.03 and P = 0.01, respectively). Conclusion: In a population at high cardiovascular risk, a positive linear association was observed between plasma GSH-Px activity and both glucose and ox-LDL levels. The high GSH-Px activity observed when an oxidative stress situation occurred, such as hyperglycemia and lipid oxidative damage, could be interpreted as a healthy defensive response against oxidative injury in our cardiovascular risk population

Disseny d'experiments

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Head-to-head comparison of contemporary heart failure risk scores

Aims: Several heart failure (HF) web-based risk scores are currently used in clinical practice. Currently, we lack head-to-head comparison of the accuracy of risk scores. This study aimed to assess correlation and mortality prediction performance of Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC-HF) risk score, which includes clinical variables + medications; Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), which includes clinical variables + treatments + analytes; PARADIGM Risk of Events and Death in the Contemporary Treatment of Heart Failure (PREDICT-HF) and Barcelona Bio-Heart Failure (BCN-Bio-HF) risk calculator, which also include biomarkers, like N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Methods and results: A total of 1166 consecutive patients with HF from different aetiologies that had NT-proBNP measurement at first visit were included. Discrimination for all-cause mortality was compared by Harrell's C-statistic from 1 to 5 years, when possible. Calibration was assessed by calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow test and global performance by Nagelkerke's R2 . Correlation between scores was assessed by Spearman rank test. Correlation between the scores was relatively poor (rho value from 0.66 to 0.79). Discrimination analyses showed better results for 1-year mortality than for longer follow-up (SHFM 0.817, MAGGIC-HF 0.801, PREDICT-HF 0.799, BCN-Bio-HF 0.830). MAGGIC-HF showed the best calibration, BCN-Bio-HF overestimated risk while SHFM and PREDICT-HF underestimated it. BCN-Bio-HF provided the best discrimination and overall performance at every time-point. Conclusions: None of the contemporary risk scores examined showed a clear superiority over the rest. BCN-Bio-HF calculator provided the best discrimination and overall performance with overestimation of risk. MAGGIC-HF showed the best calibration, and SHFM and PREDICT-HF tended to underestimate risk. Regular updating and recalibration of online web calculators seems necessary to improve their accuracy as HF management evolves at unprecedented pace