Physiological-social score (PMEWS) vs. CURB-65 to triage pandemic influenza: a comparative validation study using community-acquired pneumonia as a proxy

BACKGROUND: An influenza pandemic may increase Emergency Department attendance 7-fold. In the absence of a validated "flu score" to assess severity and assist triage decisions from primary into secondary care, current UK draft management recommendations have suggested the use of CURB-65 and chest X-ray as a proxy. We developed the Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score (PMEWS) to track and triage flu patients, taking into account physiological and social factors and without requiring laboratory or radiology services. METHODS: Validation of the PMEWS score against an unselected group of patients presenting and admitted to an urban UK teaching hospital with community acquired pneumonia. Comparison of PMEWS performance against CURB-65 for three outcome measures: need for admission, admission to high dependency or intensive care, and inpatient mortality using area under ROC curve (AUROC) and the Hanley-McNeil method of comparison. RESULTS: PMEWS was a better predictor of need for admission (AUROC 0.944) and need of higher level of care (AUROC 0.83) compared with CURB-65 (AUROCs 0.881 and 0.640 respectively) but was not as good a predictor of subsequent inpatient mortality (AUROC 0.663). CONCLUSION: Although further validation against other disease datasets as a proxy for pandemic flu is required, we show that PMEWS is rapidly applicable for triage of large numbers of flu patients to self-care, hospital admission or HDU/ICU care. It is scalable to reflect changing admission thresholds that will occur during a pandemic

Severity Assessment of Lower Respiratory Tract Infection in Malawi: Derivation of a Novel Index (SWAT-Bp) Which Outperforms CRB-65

OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity of CRB-65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate >30 breaths/min, BP<90/60 mmHg, age >65 years) as a pneumonia severity index in a Malawian hospital population, and determine whether an alternative score has greater accuracy in this setting. DESIGN: Forty three variables were prospectively recorded during the first 48 hours of admission in all patients admitted to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Malawi, for management of lower respiratory tract infection over a two month period (N = 240). Calculation of sensitivity and specificity for CRB-65 in predicting mortality was followed by multivariate modeling to create a score with superior performance in this population. RESULTS: Median age 37, HIV prevalence 79.9%, overall mortality 18.3%. CRB-65 predicted mortality poorly, indicated by the area under the ROC curve of 0.649. Independent predictors of death were: Male sex, “S” (AOR 2.6); Wasting, “W” (AOR 6.6); non-ambulatory, “A” (AOR 2.5); Temp >38°C or <35°C, “T” (AOR 3.2); BP<100/60, “Bp” (AOR 3.7). Combining these factors to form a severity index (SWAT-Bp) predicted mortality with high sensitivity and specificity (AUC: 0.867). Mortality for scores 0–5 was 0%, 3.3%, 7.4%, 29.2%, 61.5% and 87.5% respectively. A score ≥3 was 84% sensitive and 77% specific for mortality prediction, with a negative predictive value of 95.8%. CONCLUSION: CRB-65 performs poorly in this population. The SWAT-Bp score can accurately stratify patients; ≤2 indicates non-severe infection (mortality 4.4%) and ≥3 severe illness (mortality 45%)

Evaluation of a Medical and Mental Health Unit compared with standard care for older people whose emergency admission to an acute general hospital is complicated by concurrent 'confusion': a controlled clinical trial. Acronym: TEAM: Trial of an Elderly Acute care Medical and mental health unit

Background: Patients with delirium and dementia admitted to general hospitals have poor outcomes, and their carers report poor experiences. We developed an acute geriatric medical ward into a specialist Medical and Mental Health Unit over an eighteen month period. Additional specialist mental health staff were employed, other staff were trained in the ‘person-centred’ dementia care approach, a programme of meaningful activity was devised, the environment adapted to the needs of people with cognitive impairment, and attention given to communication with family carers. We hypothesise that patients managed on this ward will have better outcomes than those receiving standard care, and that such care will be cost-effective. Methods/design: We will perform a controlled clinical trial comparing in-patient management on a specialist Medical and Mental Health Unit with standard care. Study participants are patients over the age of 65, admitted as an emergency to a single general hospital, and identified on the Acute Medical Admissions Unit as being ‘confused’. Sample size is 300 per group. The evaluation design has been adapted to accommodate pressures on bed management and patient flows. If beds are available on the specialist Unit, the clinical service allocates patients at random between the Unit and standard care on general or geriatric medical wards. Once admitted, randomised patients and their carers are invited to take part in a follow up study, and baseline data are collected. Quality of care and patient experience are assessed in a non-participant observer study. Outcomes are ascertained at a follow up home visit 90 days after randomisation, by a researcher blind to allocation. The primary outcome is days spent at home (for those admitted from home), or days spent in the same care home (if admitted from a care home). Secondary outcomes include mortality, institutionalisation, resource use, and scaled outcome measures, including quality of life, cognitive function, disability, behavioural and psychological symptoms, carer strain and carer satisfaction with hospital care. Analyses will comprise comparisons of process, outcomes and costs between the specialist unit and standard care treatment groups. Trial Registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT0113614

The effects of an enhanced simulation programme on medical students' confidence responding to clinical deterioration

BACKGROUND: Clinical deterioration in adult hospital patients is an identified issue in healthcare practice globally. Teaching medical students to recognise and respond to the deteriorating patient is crucial if we are to address the issue in an effective way. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of an enhanced simulation exercise known as RADAR (Recognising Acute Deterioration: Active Response), on medical students’ confidence. METHODS: A questionnaire survey was conducted; the instrument contained three sections. Section 1 focused on students’ perceptions of the learning experience; section 2 investigated confidence. Both sections employed Likert-type scales. A third section invited open responses. Questionnaires were distributed to a cohort of third-year medical students (n = 158) in the North East of Scotland 130 (82 %) were returned for analysis, employing IBM SPSS v18 and ANOVA techniques. RESULTS: Students’ responses pointed to many benefits of the sessions. In the first section, students responded positively to the educational underpinning of the sessions, with all scores above 4.00 on a 5-point scale. There were clear learning outcomes; the sessions were active and engaging for students with an appropriate level of challenge and stress; they helped to integrate theory and practice; and effective feedback on their performance allowed students to reflect and learn from the experience. In section 2, the key finding was that scores for students’ confidence to recognise deterioration increased significantly (p. < .001) as a result of the sessions. Effect sizes (Eta(2)) were high, (0.68–0.75). In the open-ended questions, students pointed to many benefits of the RADAR course, including the opportunity to employ learned procedures in realistic scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The use of this enhanced form of simulation with simulated patients and the judicious use of moulage is an effective method of increasing realism for medical students. Importantly, it gives them greater confidence in recognising and responding to clinical deterioration in adult patients. We recommend the use of RADAR as a safe and cost-effective approach in the area of clinical deterioration and suggest that there is a need to investigate its use with different patient groups

Diagnoses, problems and healthcare interventions amongst older people with an unscheduled hospital admission who have concurrent mental health problems: a prevalence study

Background Frail older people with mental health problems including delirium, dementia and depression are often admitted to general hospitals. However, hospital admission may cause distress, and can be associated with complications. Some commentators suggest that their healthcare needs could be better met elsewhere. Methods We studied consecutive patients aged 70 or older admitted for emergency medical or trauma care to an 1800 bed general hospital which provided sole emergency medical and trauma services for its local population. Patients were screened for mental health problems, and those screening positive were invited to take part. 250 participants were recruited and a sub-sample of 53 patients was assessed by a geriatrician for diagnoses, impairments and disabilities, healthcare interventions and outstanding needs. Results Median age was 86 years, median Mini-Mental State Examination score at admission was 16/30, and 45% had delirium. 19% lived in a care home prior to admission. All the patients were complex. A wide range of main admission diagnoses was recorded, and these were usually complicated by falls, immobility, pain, delirium, dehydration or incontinence. There was a median of six active diagnoses, and eight active problems. One quarter of problems was unexplained. A median of 13 interventions was recorded, and a median of a further four interventions suggested by the geriatrician. Those with more severe cognitive impairment had no less medical need. Conclusions This patient group, admitted to hospital in the United Kingdom, had numerous healthcare problems, and by implication, extensive healthcare needs. Patients with simpler conditions were not identified, but may have already been rapidly discharged or redirected to non-hospital services by the time assessments were made. To meet the needs of this group outside the hospital would need considerable investment in medical, nursing, therapy and diagnostic facilities. In the meantime, acute hospitals should adapt to deliver comprehensive geriatric assessment, and provide for their mental health needs

Testing effectiveness of the revised Cape Town modified early warning and SBAR systems: a pilot pragmatic parallel group randomised controlled trial

Abstract Background Nurses’ recognition of clinical deterioration is crucial for patient survival. Evidence for the effectiveness of modified early warning scores (MEWS) is derived from large observation studies in developed countries. Methods We tested the effectiveness of the paper-based Cape Town (CT) MEWS vital signs observation chart and situation-background-assessment-recommendation (SBAR) communication guide. Outcomes were: proportion of appropriate responses to deterioration, differences in recording of clinical parameters and serious adverse events (SAEs) in intervention and control trial arms. Public teaching hospitals for adult patients in Cape Town were randomised to implementation of the CT MEWS/SBAR guide or usual care (observation chart without track-and-trigger information) for 31 days on general medical and surgical wards. Nurses in intervention wards received training, as they had no prior knowledge of early warning systems. Identification and reporting of patient deterioration in intervention and control wards were compared. In the intervention arm, 24 day-shift and 23 night-shift nurses received training. Clinical records were reviewed retrospectively at trial end. Only records of patients who had given signed consent were reviewed. Results We recruited two of six CT general hospitals. We consented 363 patients and analysed 292 (80.4%) patient records (n = 150, 51.4% intervention, n = 142, 48.6% control arm). Assistance was summoned for fewer patients with abnormal vital signs in the intervention arm (2/45, 4.4% versus (vs) 11/81, 13.6%, OR 0.29 (0.06–1.39)), particularly low systolic blood pressure. There was a significant difference in recording between trial arms for parameters listed on the MEWS chart but omitted from the standard observations chart: oxygen saturation, level of consciousness, pallor/cyanosis, pain, sweating, wound oozing, pedal pulses, glucose concentration, haemoglobin concentration, and “looks unwell”. SBAR was used twice. There was no statistically significant difference in SAEs (5/150, 3.3% vs 3/143, 2.1% P = 0.72, OR 1.61 (0.38–6.86)). Conclusions The revised CT MEWS observations chart improved recording of certain parameters, but did not improve nurses’ ability to identify early signs of clinical deterioration and to summon assistance. Recruitment of only two hospitals and exclusion of patients too ill to consent limits generalisation of results. Further work is needed on educational preparation for the CT MEWS/SBAR and its impact on nurses’ reporting behaviour. Trial registration Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR201406000838118. Registered on 2 June 2014, www.pactr.org