Aerosols from anthropogenic and biogenic sources and their interactions - modeling aerosol formation, optical properties, and impacts over the central Amazon basin

The Green Ocean Amazon experiment &ndash; GoAmazon 2014&ndash;2015 &ndash; explored the interactions between natural biogenic forest emissions from central Amazonia and urban air pollution from Manaus. Previous GoAmazon 2014&ndash;2015 studies showed that nitrogen oxide (NOx&thinsp;=&thinsp;NO&thinsp;+&thinsp;NO2) and sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions from Manaus strongly interact with biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), affecting secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. In previous studies, ground-based and aircraft measurements provided evidence of SOA formation and strong changes in aerosol composition and properties. Aerosol optical properties also evolve, and their impacts on the Amazonian ecosystem can be significant. As particles age, some processes, such as SOA production, black carbon (BC) deposition, particle growth and the BC lensing effect change the aerosol optical properties, affecting the solar radiation flux at the surface. This study analyzes data and models SOA formation using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model to assess the spatial variability in aerosol optical properties as the Manaus plumes interact with the natural atmosphere. The following aerosol optical properties are investigated: single scattering albedo (SSA), asymmetry parameter (gaer), absorption &Aring;ngstr&ouml;m exponent (AAE) and scattering &Aring;ngstr&ouml;m exponent (SAE). These simulations were validated using ground-based measurements at three experimental sites, namely the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory &ndash; ATTO (T0a), downtown Manaus (T1), Tiwa Hotel (T2) and Manacapuru (T3), as well as the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Gulfstream 1 (G-1) aircraft flights. WRF-Chem simulations were performed over 7&thinsp;d during March 2014. Results show a mean biogenic SOA (BSOA) mass enrichment of 512&thinsp;% at the T1 site, 450&thinsp;% in regions downwind of Manaus, such as the T3 site, and 850&thinsp;% in areas north of the T3 site in simulations with anthropogenic emissions. The SOA formation is rather fast, with about 80&thinsp;% of the SOA mass produced in 3&ndash;4&thinsp;h. Comparing the plume from simulations with and without anthropogenic emissions, SSA shows a downwind reduction of approximately 10&thinsp;%, 11&thinsp;% and 6&thinsp;% at the T1, T2 and T3 sites, respectively. Other regions, such as those further downwind of the T3 site, are also affected. The gaer values increased from 0.62 to 0.74 at the T1 site and from 0.67 to 0.72 at the T3 site when anthropogenic emissions are active. During the Manaus plume-aging process, a plume tracking analysis shows an increase in SSA from 0.91 close to Manaus to 0.98 160&thinsp;km downwind of Manaus as a result of SOA production and BC deposition. </div

Dark sectors 2016 Workshop: community report

This report, based on the Dark Sectors workshop at SLAC in April 2016, summarizes the scientific importance of searches for dark sector dark matter and forces at masses beneath the weak-scale, the status of this broad international field, the important milestones motivating future exploration, and promising experimental opportunities to reach these milestones over the next 5-10 years

Instrumentation and measurement strategy for the NOAA SENEX aircraft campaign as part of the Southeast Atmosphere Study 2013

Natural emissions of ozone-and-aerosol-precursor gases such as isoprene and monoterpenes are high in the southeastern US. In addition, anthropogenic emissions are significant in the southeastern US and summertime photochemistry is rapid. The NOAA-led SENEX (Southeast Nexus) aircraft campaign was one of the major components of the Southeast Atmosphere Study (SAS) and was focused on studying the interactions between biogenic and anthropogenic emissions to form secondary pollutants. During SENEX, the NOAA WP-3D aircraft conducted 20 research flights between 27 May and 10 July 2013 based out of Smyrna, TN. Here we describe the experimental approach, the science goals and early results of the NOAA SENEX campaign. The aircraft, its capabilities and standard measurements are described. The instrument payload is summarized including detection limits, accuracy, precision and time resolutions for all gas-and-aerosol phase instruments. The inter-comparisons of compounds measured with multiple instruments on the NOAA WP-3D are presented and were all within the stated uncertainties, except two of the three NO2 measurements. The SENEX flights included day- and nighttime flights in the southeastern US as well as flights over areas with intense shale gas extraction (Marcellus, Fayetteville and Haynesville shale). We present one example flight on 16 June 2013, which was a daytime flight over the Atlanta region, where several crosswind transects of plumes from the city and nearby point sources, such as power plants, paper mills and landfills, were flown. The area around Atlanta has large biogenic isoprene emissions, which provided an excellent case for studying the interactions between biogenic and anthropogenic emissions. In this example flight, chemistry in and outside the Atlanta plumes was observed for several hours after emission. The analysis of this flight showcases the strategies implemented to answer some of the main SENEX science questions.</p

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems

A Regression Approach for Estimation of Anthropogenic Heat Flux Based on a Bottom-Up Air Pollutant Emission Database

A statistical regression method is presented for estimating hourly anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) using an anthropogenic pollutant emission inventory for use in mesoscale meteorological and air-quality modeling. Based on bottom-up AHF estimated from detailed energy consumption data and anthropogenic pollutant emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the US National Emission Inventory year 2005 (NEI-2005), a robust regression relation between the AHF and the pollutant emissions is obtained for Houston. This relation is a combination of two power functions (Y = aXb) relating CO and NOx emissions to AHF, giving a determinant coefficient (R2) of 0.72. The AHF for Houston derived from the regression relation has high temporal (R = 0.91) and spatial (R = 0.83) correlations with the bottom-up AHF. Hourly AHF for the whole US in summer is estimated by applying the regression relation to the NEI-2005 summer pollutant emissions with a high spatial resolution of 4-km. The summer daily mean AHF range 10–40 W m-2 on a 4 × 4 km2 grid scale with maximum heat fluxes of 50–140 W m-2 for major US cities. The AHFs derived from the regression relations between the bottom-up AHF and either CO or NOx emissions show a small difference of less than 5% (4.7 W m-2) in city-scale daily mean AHF, and similar R2 statistics, compared to results from their combination. Thus, emissions of either species can be used to estimate AHF in the US cities. An hourly AHF inventory at 4 × 4 km2 resolution over the entire US based on the combined regression is derived and made publicly available for use in mesoscale numerical modeling

Top-down estimate of methane emissions in California using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: The South Coast Air Basin

International audienceMethane (CH 4 ) is the primary component of natural gas and has a larger global warming potential than CO 2 . Recent top-down studies based on observations showed CH 4 emissions in California’s South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) were greater than those expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories. In this study, we quantify CH 4 emissions with an advanced mesoscale inverse modeling system at a resolution of 8 km × 8 km, using aircraft measurements in the SoCAB during the 2010 Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change campaign to constrain the inversion. To simulate atmospheric transport, we use the FLEXible PARTicle-Weather Research and Forecasting (FLEXPART-WRF) Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. We determine surface fluxes of CH 4 using a Bayesian least squares method in a four-dimensional inversion.Simulated CH 4 concentrations with the posterior emission inventory achieve much better correlations with the measurements (R 2 = 0.7) than using the prior inventory (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Emission Inventory 2005, R 2 = 0.5). The emission estimates for CH 4 in the posterior, 46.3 ± 9.2 Mg CH4 /h, are consistent with published observation-based estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions in the SoCAB between the prior and posterior inventories are discussed. Missing or underestimated emissions from dairies, the oil/gas system, and landfills in the SoCAB seem to explain the differences between the prior and posterior inventories. We estimate that dairies contributed 5.9 ± 1.7 Mg CH 4 /h and the two sectors of oil and gas industries (production and downstream) and landfills together contributed 39.6 ± 8.1Mg CH 4 /h in the SoCAB