Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification of Convective Parameters in an Idealized GCM

Parameters in climate models are usually calibrated manually, exploiting only small subsets of the available data. This precludes both optimal calibration and quantification of uncertainties. Traditional Bayesian calibration methods that allow uncertainty quantification are too expensive for climate models; they are also not robust in the presence of internal climate variability. For example, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods typically require $O(10^5)$ model runs and are sensitive to internal variability noise, rendering them infeasible for climate models. Here we demonstrate an approach to model calibration and uncertainty quantification that requires only $O(10^2)$ model runs and can accommodate internal climate variability. The approach consists of three stages: (i) a calibration stage uses variants of ensemble Kalman inversion to calibrate a model by minimizing mismatches between model and data statistics; (ii) an emulation stage emulates the parameter-to-data map with Gaussian processes (GP), using the model runs in the calibration stage for training; (iii) a sampling stage approximates the Bayesian posterior distributions by sampling the GP emulator with MCMC. We demonstrate the feasibility and computational efficiency of this calibrate-emulate-sample (CES) approach in a perfect-model setting. Using an idealized general circulation model, we estimate parameters in a simple convection scheme from synthetic data generated with the model. The CES approach generates probability distributions of the parameters that are good approximations of the Bayesian posteriors, at a fraction of the computational cost usually required to obtain them. Sampling from this approximate posterior allows the generation of climate predictions with quantified parametric uncertainties

Reconciling Bayesian and Perimeter Regularization for Binary Inversion

A central theme in classical algorithms for the reconstruction of discontinuous functions from observational data is perimeter regularization via the use of total variation. On the other hand, sparse or noisy data often demand a probabilistic approach to the reconstruction of images, to enable uncertainty quantification; the Bayesian approach to inversion, which itself introduces a form of regularization, is a natural framework in which to carry this out. In this paper the link between Bayesian inversion methods and perimeter regularization is explored. In this paper two links are studied: (i) the maximum a posteriori objective function of a suitably chosen Bayesian phase-field approach is shown to be closely related to a least squares plus perimeter regularization objective; (ii) sample paths of a suitably chosen Bayesian level set formulation are shown to possess a finite perimeter and to have the ability to learn about the true perimeter

One-Loop n-Point Gauge Theory Amplitudes, Unitarity and Collinear Limits

We present a technique which utilizes unitarity and collinear limits to construct ansatze for one-loop amplitudes in gauge theory. As an example, we obtain the one-loop contribution to amplitudes for $n$ gluon scattering in $N=4$ supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory with the helicity configuration of the Parke-Taylor tree amplitudes. We prove that our $N=4$ ansatz is correct using general properties of the relevant one-loop $n$-point integrals. We also give the ``splitting amplitudes'' which govern the collinear behavior of one-loop helicity amplitudes in gauge theories.Comment: 52 pages (including figures), minor typographical errors corrected, SLAC-PUB-641

Fusing Gauge Theory Tree Amplitudes Into Loop Amplitudes

We identify a large class of one-loop amplitudes for massless particles that can be constructed via unitarity from tree amplitudes, without any ambiguities. One-loop amplitudes for massless supersymmetric gauge theories fall into this class; in addition, many non-supersymmetric amplitudes can be rearranged to take advantage of the result. As applications, we construct the one-loop amplitudes for $n$-gluon scattering in $N=1$ supersymmetric theories with the helicity configuration of the Parke-Taylor tree amplitudes, and for six-gluon scattering in $N=4$ super-Yang-Mills theory for all helicity configurations.Comment: 49 pages, SLAC-PUB-656

Immersion education outcomes and the Gaelic community:Identities and language ideologies among Gaelic-medium educated adults in Scotland

Scholars have consistently theorised that language ideologies can influence the ways in which bilingual speakers in minority language settings identify and engage with the linguistic varieties available to them. Research conducted by the author examined the interplay of language use and ideologies among a purposive sample of adults who started in Gaelic medium education during the first years of its availability. Crucially, the majority of participants’ Gaelic use today is limited, although notable exceptions were found among individuals who were substantially socialised in the language at home during childhood, and a small number of new speakers. In this paper, I draw attention to some of the language ideologies that interviewees conveyed when describing their cultural identifications with Gaelic. I argue that the ideologies that informants express seem to militate against their more frequent use of the language and their association with the wider Gaelic community. In particular, I discuss interviewees’ negative perceptions of the traditionally defined, ethnolinguistic identity category ‘Gael(s)’ in their expression of language ideologies and identities, and the implications of this finding for other contexts of minority language revitalisation

Correlates of Cooperation in a One-Shot High-Stakes Televised Prisoners' Dilemma

Explaining cooperation between non-relatives is a puzzle for both evolutionary biology and the social sciences. In humans, cooperation is often studied in a laboratory setting using economic games such as the prisoners' dilemma. However, such experiments are sometimes criticized for being played for low stakes and by misrepresentative student samples. Golden balls is a televised game show that uses the prisoners' dilemma, with a diverse range of participants, often playing for very large stakes. We use this non-experimental dataset to investigate the factors that influence cooperation when “playing” for considerably larger stakes than found in economic experiments. The game show has earlier stages that allow for an analysis of lying and voting decisions. We found that contestants were sensitive to the stakes involved, cooperating less when the stakes were larger in both absolute and relative terms. We also found that older contestants were more likely to cooperate, that liars received less cooperative behavior, but only if they told a certain type of lie, and that physical contact was associated with reduced cooperation, whereas laughter and promises were reliable signals or cues of cooperation, but were not necessarily detected

Induction of Cytoprotective Pathways Is Central to the Extension of Lifespan Conferred by Multiple Longevity Pathways

Many genetic and physiological treatments that extend lifespan also confer resistance to a variety of stressors, suggesting that cytoprotective mechanisms underpin the regulation of longevity. It has not been established, however, whether the induction of cytoprotective pathways is essential for lifespan extension or merely correlated. Using a panel of GFP-fused stress response genes, we identified the suites of cytoprotective pathways upregulated by 160 gene inactivations known to increase Caenorhabditis elegans longevity, including the mitochondrial UPR (hsp-6, hsp-60), the ER UPR (hsp-4), ROS response (sod-3, gst-4), and xenobiotic detoxification (gst-4). We then screened for other gene inactivations that disrupt the induction of these responses by xenobiotic or genetic triggers, identifying 29 gene inactivations required for cytoprotective gene expression. If cytoprotective responses contribute directly to lifespan extension, inactivation of these genes would be expected to compromise the extension of lifespan conferred by decreased insulin/IGF-1 signaling, caloric restriction, or the inhibition of mitochondrial function. We find that inactivation of 25 of 29 cytoprotection-regulatory genes shortens the extension of longevity normally induced by decreased insulin/IGF-1 signaling, disruption of mitochondrial function, or caloric restriction, without disrupting normal longevity nearly as dramatically. These data demonstrate that induction of cytoprotective pathways is central to longevity extension and identify a large set of new genetic components of the pathways that detect cellular damage and couple that detection to downstream cytoprotective effectors.National Institute on Aging (AG16636

Smoking patterns and stimulus control in intermittent and daily smokers

Intermittent smokers (ITS) - who smoke less than daily - comprise an increasing proportion of adult smokers. Their smoking patterns challenge theoretical models of smoking motivation, which emphasize regular and frequent smoking to maintain nicotine levels and avoid withdrawal, but yet have gone largely unexamined. We characterized smoking patterns among 212 ITS (smoking 4-27 days per month) compared to 194 daily smokers (DS; smoking 5-30 cigarettes daily) who monitored situational antecedents of smoking using ecological momentary assessment. Subjects recorded each cigarette on an electronic diary, and situational variables were assessed in a random subset (n = 21,539 smoking episodes); parallel assessments were obtained by beeping subjects at random when they were not smoking (n = 26,930 non-smoking occasions). Compared to DS, ITS' smoking was more strongly associated with being away from home, being in a bar, drinking alcohol, socializing, being with friends and acquaintances, and when others were smoking. Mood had only modest effects in either group. DS' and ITS' smoking were substantially and equally suppressed by smoking restrictions, although ITS more often cited self-imposed restrictions. ITS' smoking was consistently more associated with environmental cues and contexts, especially those associated with positive or "indulgent" smoking situations. Stimulus control may be an important influence in maintaining smoking and making quitting difficult among ITS. © 2014 Shiffman et al

Physiological Correlates of Volunteering

We review research on physiological correlates of volunteering, a neglected but promising research field. Some of these correlates seem to be causal factors influencing volunteering. Volunteers tend to have better physical health, both self-reported and expert-assessed, better mental health, and perform better on cognitive tasks. Research thus far has rarely examined neurological, neurochemical, hormonal, and genetic correlates of volunteering to any significant extent, especially controlling for other factors as potential confounds. Evolutionary theory and behavioral genetic research suggest the importance of such physiological factors in humans. Basically, many aspects of social relationships and social activities have effects on health (e.g., Newman and Roberts 2013; Uchino 2004), as the widely used biopsychosocial (BPS) model suggests (Institute of Medicine 2001). Studies of formal volunteering (FV), charitable giving, and altruistic behavior suggest that physiological characteristics are related to volunteering, including specific genes (such as oxytocin receptor [OXTR] genes, Arginine vasopressin receptor [AVPR] genes, dopamine D4 receptor [DRD4] genes, and 5-HTTLPR). We recommend that future research on physiological factors be extended to non-Western populations, focusing specifically on volunteering, and differentiating between different forms and types of volunteering and civic participation

Empirical Legal Studies Before 1940: A Bibliographic Essay

The modern empirical legal studies movement has well-known antecedents in the law and society and law and economics traditions of the latter half of the 20th century. Less well known is the body of empirical research on legal phenomena from the period prior to World War II. This paper is an extensive bibliographic essay that surveys the English language empirical legal research from approximately 1940 and earlier. The essay is arranged around the themes in the research: criminal justice, civil justice (general studies of civil litigation, auto accident litigation and compensation, divorce, small claims, jurisdiction and procedure, civil juries), debt and bankruptcy, banking, appellate courts, legal needs, legal profession (including legal education), and judicial staffing and selection. Accompanying the essay is an extensive bibliography of research articles, books, and reports