Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States

Climate change impacts on water resources in the United States are likely to be far-reaching and substantial because the water is integral to climate, and the water sector spans many parts of the economy. This paper estimates impacts and damages from five water resource-related models addressing runoff, drought risk, economics of water supply/demand, water stress, and flooding damages. The models differ in the water system assessed, spatial scale, and unit of assessment, but together provide a quantitative and descriptive richness in characterizing water sector effects that no single model can capture. The results, driven by a consistent set of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate scenarios, examine uncertainty from emissions, climate sensitivity, and climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding patterns of change and benefits of GHG mitigation. Four key findings emerge: 1) GHG mitigation substantially reduces hydro-climatic impacts on the water sector; 2) GHG mitigation provides substantial national economic benefits in water resources related sectors; 3) the models show a strong signal of wetting for the Eastern US and a strong signal of drying in the Southwest; and 4) unmanaged hydrologic systems impacts show strong correlation with the change in magnitude and direction of precipitation and temperature from climate models, but managed water resource systems and regional economic systems show lower correlation with changes in climate variables due to non-linearities created by water infrastructure and the socio-economic changes in non-climate driven water demand

Water Body Temperature Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Thermal Cooling

We develop and test a physically based semi-Lagrangian water body temperature model to apply climatological data and thermal pollution from river-based power plants to historical river flow data in order to better understand climate change impacts on surface water temperature and thermal power plant withdrawal allowances. The model is built for rapid assessment and use in Integrated Assessment Models. We first test the standalone model on a 190km river reach, the Delaware River, where we have detailed flow and temperature data. An R2 of 0.88 is obtained on hourly data for this initial test. Next, we integrate the standalone temperature model into a series of models—rainfall-runoff model, water demand model, water resource management model, and power plant uptake and release model—for the contiguous USA (CONUS), with about 19,000 segments total. With this system in place, we then validate the standalone water temperature model within the system for 16 river stations throughout the CONUS, where we have measured daily temperature data. The model performs reasonably well with a median R2 of 0.88. A variety of climate and emissions scenarios are then applied to the model to test regions of higher vulnerability to river temperature environmental violations, making use of output from two GCMs and six emissions scenarios focusing on projections out to 2050. We find that the two GCMs project significantly different impacts to water temperature, driven largely by the resulting changes in streamflow from the two models. We also find significantly different impacts on the withdrawal allowed by thermal power plants due to environmental regulations. Potential impacts on generation are between +3% and -4% by 2050 for the unconstrained emissions case and +3.5% to -2% for the stringent GHG mitigation policy (where 1% is equivalent to 32 TWh, or about 3 billion USD/year using 2005 electricity prices). We also find that once-through cooling plants are most vulnerable to climate change impacts, with summer impacts ranging from -0.8% to -6% for the unconstrained emissions case and +2.1% to -3.7% for the stringent GHG emissions case

Graphite crystallizer and its surface quality as a factor affecting the copper continuous casting process

Pure copper is one of the best conducting metals among known materials, making it the first choice for wires and microwires. However, before subjecting to metal working, the material is being manufactured in the continuous casting lines. The experimental study conducted in laboratory conditions proved that the external surface quality, and thus the contact quality with the cooling system is being responsible for the worsening or improving of the heat transfer and therefore the temperature of the crystallizer itself. The conducted study might function as sort of a guideline for the industrial process

Graphite crystallizer and its surface quality as a factor affecting the copper continuous casting process

Pure copper is one of the best conducting metals among known materials, making it the first choice for wires and microwires. However, before subjecting to metal working, the material is being manufactured in the continuous casting lines. The experimental study conducted in laboratory conditions proved that the external surface quality, and thus the contact quality with the cooling system is being responsible for the worsening or improving of the heat transfer and therefore the temperature of the crystallizer itself. The conducted study might function as sort of a guideline for the industrial process

Competition for water for the food system

Although the global agricultural system will need to provide more food for a growing and wealthier population in decades to come, increasing demands for water and potential impacts of climate change pose threats to food systems. We review the primary threats to agricultural water availability, and model the potential effects of increases in municipal and industrial (M&I) water demands, environmental flow requirements (EFRs) and changing water supplies given climate change. Our models show that, together, these factors cause an 18 per cent reduction in the availability of worldwide water for agriculture by 2050. Meeting EFRs, which can necessitate more than 50 per cent of the mean annual run-off in a basin depending on its hydrograph, presents the single biggest threat to agricultural water availability. Next are increases in M&I demands, which are projected to increase upwards of 200 per cent by 2050 in developing countries with rapidly increasing populations and incomes. Climate change will affect the spatial and temporal distribution of run-off, and thus affect availability from the supply side. The combined effect of these factors can be dramatic in particular hotspots, which include northern Africa, India, China, parts of Europe, the western US and eastern Australia, among others

Characterisation of Cu-CNTs composite electrical properties in elevated temperatures

The current trend towards nanotechnology creates possibilities for its use in materials science as manufacturing material with extraordinary properties, and is one of the goals for scientists in this field. Carbon nanotubes in particular are promising due to their electrical, thermal and mechanical properties, which have been of interest for researchers around the world. This paper focuses on the manufacturing process of the Cu-CNT composite via powder metallurgy and KOBO extrusion process, its further cold drawing process, and electrical resistance test at an elevated temperature. As obtained data proved, the higher the CNT content the lower the electrical resistance

Seasonal Cycles of Phytoplankton and Net Primary Production from Biogeochemical Argo Float Data in the South-West Pacific Ocean

We present annual cycles of chlorophyll a, phytoplankton carbon, nitrate and oxygen for Subtropical (STW), Subantarctic (SAW), and Subantarctic Mode (SAMW) waters near Aotearoa New Zealand from data collected by two Biogeochemical (BGC) Argo floats. We develop two simple models of depth-integrated net primary production (NPP), tuned against 14C-uptake measurements, to compare with Vertically-Generalised Production Model (VGPM) satellite-based estimates of NPP. One model is the simplest possible, and assumes production is proportional to light multiplied by chlorophyll a concentration. The second model modifies the light response profile to account for photoacclimation. In STW at 30–35°S, enhanced production is initiated in austral autumn when the mixed layer deepens to entrain nutrients into the photic zone. For about half the year, there is substantial production within a deep chlorophyll maximum that sits below the mixed layer. Consequently, depth-integrated NPP is only loosely related to surface biomass as imaged from satellite remote-sensing, and BGC Argo-based model estimates of depth-integrated NPP are about double VGPM estimates. In SAW at 45–55°S, production is initiated when vertical mixing decreases in austral spring. Production is largely within the mixed layer, and depth-integrated phytoplankton biomass and depth-integrated NPP follow surface phytoplankton biomass. Model estimates of depth-integrated NPP based on BGC Argo float profiles are comparable with VGPM estimates for the southern water masses

Toward evaluating the effect of climate change on investments in the water resources sector: insights from the forecast and analysis of hydrological indicators in developing countries

The World Bank has recently developed a method to evaluate the effects of climate change on six hydrological indicators across 8951 basins of the world. The indicators are designed for decision-makers and stakeholders to consider climate risk when planning water resources and related infrastructure investments. Analysis of these hydrological indicators shows that, on average, mean annual runoff will decline in southern Europe; most of Africa; and in southern North America and most of Central and South America. Mean reference crop water deficit, on the other hand, combines temperature and precipitation and is anticipated to increase in nearly all locations globally due to rising global temperatures, with the most dramatic increases projected to occur in southern Europe, southeastern Asia, and parts of South America. These results suggest overall guidance on which regions to focus water infrastructure solutions that could address future runoff flow uncertainty. Most important, we find that uncertainty in projections of mean annual runoff and high runoff events is higher in poorer countries, and increases over time. Uncertainty increases over time for all income categories, but basins in the lower and lower-middle income categories are forecast to experience dramatically higher increases in uncertainty relative to those in the upper-middle and upper income categories. The enhanced understanding of the uncertainty of climate projections for the water sector that this work provides strongly support the adoption of rigorous approaches to infrastructure design under uncertainty, as well as design that incorporates a high degree of flexibility, in response to both risk of damage and opportunity to exploit water supply 'windfalls' that might result, but would require smart infrastructure investments to manage to the greatest benefit

Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial and municipal water: a methodology and application

Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a limited number of adaptation strategies, and apply the method using results of two climate models. In this paper, adaptation costs are defined as those for providing enough raw water to meet future industrial and municipal water demand, based on country-level demand projections to 2050. We first estimate costs for a baseline scenario excluding climate change, and then additional climate change adaptation costs. Increased demand is assumed to be met through a combination of increased reservoir yield and alternative backstop measures. Under such controversial measures, we project global adaptation costs of $12 bn p.a., with 83-90$73 bn p.a.), which supports the notion of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into broader policy aims. The method provides a tool for estimating broad costs at the global and regional scale; such information is of key importance in international negotiations. © 2010 IOP Publishing Ltd

Marine Phytoplankton Temperature versus Growth Responses from Polar to Tropical Waters – Outcome of a Scientific Community-Wide Study

"It takes a village to finish (marine) science these days" Paraphrased from Curtis Huttenhower (the Human Microbiome project) The rapidity and complexity of climate change and its potential effects on ocean biota are challenging how ocean scientists conduct research. One way in which we can begin to better tackle these challenges is to conduct community-wide scientific studies. This study provides physiological datasets fundamental to understanding functional responses of phytoplankton growth rates to temperature. While physiological experiments are not new, our experiments were conducted in many laboratories using agreed upon protocols and 25 strains of eukaryotic and prokaryotic phytoplankton isolated across a wide range of marine environments from polar to tropical, and from nearshore waters to the open ocean. This community-wide approach provides both comprehensive and internally consistent datasets produced over considerably shorter time scales than conventional individual and often uncoordinated lab efforts. Such datasets can be used to parameterise global ocean model projections of environmental change and to provide initial insights into the magnitude of regional biogeographic change in ocean biota in the coming decades. Here, we compare our datasets with a compilation of literature data on phytoplankton growth responses to temperature. A comparison with prior published data suggests that the optimal temperatures of individual species and, to a lesser degree, thermal niches were similar across studies. However, a comparison of the maximum growth rate across studies revealed significant departures between this and previously collected datasets, which may be due to differences in the cultured isolates, temporal changes in the clonal isolates in cultures, and/or differences in culture conditions. Such methodological differences mean that using particular trait measurements from the prior literature might introduce unknown errors and bias into modelling projections. Using our community-wide approach we can reduce such protocol-driven variability in culture studies, and can begin to address more complex issues such as the effect of multiple environmental drivers on ocean biota.EL and MKT were in part supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) grants DEB-0845932 and OCE-0928819. TAR and KAW were supported by NSF grant OCE-0727227. UP was supported by NSF grants OCE-0926711 and OCE-1041038. PWB and RS were supported by the New Zealand Royal Society Marsden Fund and the Ministry of Science and Innovation. RMK and KH were in part supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Monitoring and Event Response for Harmful Algal Blooms (MERHAB) grant NA04NOS4780239 and NSF grant OCE-0238347. DAH and FX-F were supported by NSF grants OCE-0942379, OCE-0962309, and OCE-117030687. MRM was partially supported by NSF grant OCE-0722395 and a NOAA The Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Blooms (ECOHAB) grant NA06NO54780246. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript