Permafrost landscape history shapes fluvial chemistry, ecosystem carbon balance, and potential trajectories of future change

Intensifying permafrost thaw alters carbon cycling by mobilizing large amounts of terrestrial substrate into aquatic ecosystems. Yet, few studies have measured aquatic carbon fluxes and constrained drivers of ecosystem carbon balance across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes. Here, we characterized hydrochemical and landscape controls on fluvial carbon cycling, quantified fluvial carbon fluxes, and estimated fluvial contributions to ecosystem carbon balance across 33 watersheds in four ecoregions in the continuous permafrost zone of the western Canadian Arctic: unglaciated uplands, ice-rich moraine, and organic-rich lowlands and till plains. Major ions, stable isotopes, and carbon speciation and fluxes revealed patterns in carbon cycling across ecoregions defined by terrain relief and accumulation of organics. In previously unglaciated mountainous watersheds, bicarbonate dominated carbon export (70% of total) due to chemical weathering of bedrock. In lowland watersheds, where soil organic carbon stores were largest, lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon (50%) and efflux of biotic CO2 (25%) dominated. In watersheds affected by thaw-induced mass wasting, erosion of ice-rich tills enhanced chemical weathering and increased particulate carbon fluxes by two orders of magnitude. From an ecosystem carbon balance perspective, fluvial carbon export in watersheds not affected by thaw-induced wasting was, on average, equivalent to 6%–16% of estimated net ecosystem exchange (NEE). In watersheds affected by thaw-induced wasting, fluvial carbon export approached 60% of NEE. Because future intensification of thermokarst activity will amplify fluvial carbon export, determining the fate of carbon across diverse northern landscapes is a priority for constraining trajectories of permafrost region ecosystem carbon balance

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced

Sediment organic carbon burial in agriculturally eutrophic impoundments over the last century

We estimated organic carbon (OC) burial over the past century in 40 impoundments in one of the most intensively agricultural regions of the world. The volume of sediment deposited per unit time varied as a function of lake and watershed size, but smaller impoundments had greater deposition and accumulation rates per unit area. Annual water storage losses varied from 0.1–20% and were negatively correlated with impoundment size. Estimated sediment OC content was greatest in lakes with low ratios of watershed to impoundment area. Sediment OC burial rates were higher than those assumed for fertile impoundments by previous studies and were much higher than those measured in natural lakes. OC burial ranged from a high of 17,000 g C m−2 a−1 to a low of 148 g C m−2 a−1 and was significantly greater in small impoundments than large ones. The OC buried in these lakes originates in both autochthonous and allochthonous production. These analyses suggest that OC sequestration in moderate to large impoundments may be double the rate assumed in previous analyses. Extrapolation suggests that they may bury 4 times as much carbon (C) as the world's oceans. The world's farm ponds alone may bury more OC than the oceans and 33% as much as the world's rivers deliver to the sea.

Global abundance and size distribution of streams and rivers

To better integrate lotic ecosystems into global cycles and budgets, we provide approximations of the size-distribution and areal extent of streams and rivers. One approach we used was to employ stream network theory combined with data on stream width. We also used detailed stream networks on 2 continents to estimate the fraction of continental area occupied by streams worldwide and corrected remote sensing stream inventories for unresolved small streams. Our estimates of global fluvial area are 485 000 to 662 000 km2 and are +30–300% of published appraisals. Moderately sized rivers (orders 5–9) seem to comprise the greatest global area, with less area covered by low and high order streams, while global stream length, and therefore the riparian interface, is dominated by 1st order streams. Rivers and streams are likely to cover 0.30–0.56% of the land surface and make contributions to global processes and greenhouse gas emissions that may be +20–200% greater than those implied by previous estimates.