Exploring diurnal variation using piecewise linear splines:an example using blood pressure

Background: There are many examples of physiological processes that follow a circadian cycle and researchers are interested in alternative methods to illustrate and quantify this diurnal variation. Circadian blood pressure (BP) deserves additional attention given uncertainty relating to the prognostic significance of BP variability in relation to cardiovascular disease. However, the majority of studies exploring variability in ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) collapse the data into single readings ignoring the temporal nature of the data. Advanced statistical techniques are required to explore complete variation over 24 h. Methods: We use piecewise linear splines in a mixed-effects model with a constraint to ensure periodicity as a novel application for modelling daily blood pressure. Data from the Mitchelstown Study, a cross-sectional study of Irish adults aged 47–73 years (n = 2047) was utilized. A subsample (1207) underwent 24-h ABPM. We compared patterns between those with and without evidence of subclinical target organ damage (microalbuminuria). Results: We were able to quantify the steepest rise and fall in SBP, which occurred just after waking (2.23 mmHg/30 min) and immediately after falling asleep (−1.93 mmHg/30 min) respectively. The variation about an individual’s trajectory over 24 h was 12.3 mmHg (standard deviation). On average those with microalbuminuria were found to have significantly higher SBP (7.6 mmHg, 95% CI 5.0–10.1) after adjustment for age, sex and BMI. Including an interaction term between each linear spline and microalbuminuria did not improve model fit. Conclusion: We have introduced a practical method for the analysis of ABPM where we can determine the rate of increase or decrease for different periods of the day. This may be particularly useful in examining chronotherapy effects of antihypertensive medication. It offers new measures of short-term BP variability as we can quantify the variation about an individual’s trajectory but also allows examination of the variation in slopes between individuals (random-effects)

CuBIC: cumulant based inference of higher-order correlations in massively parallel spike trains

Recent developments in electrophysiological and optical recording techniques enable the simultaneous observation of large numbers of neurons. A meaningful interpretation of the resulting multivariate data, however, presents a serious challenge. In particular, the estimation of higher-order correlations that characterize the cooperative dynamics of groups of neurons is impeded by the combinatorial explosion of the parameter space. The resulting requirements with respect to sample size and recording time has rendered the detection of coordinated neuronal groups exceedingly difficult. Here we describe a novel approach to infer higher-order correlations in massively parallel spike trains that is less susceptible to these problems. Based on the superimposed activity of all recorded neurons, the cumulant-based inference of higher-order correlations (CuBIC) presented here exploits the fact that the absence of higher-order correlations imposes also strong constraints on correlations of lower order. Thus, estimates of only few lower-order cumulants suffice to infer higher-order correlations in the population. As a consequence, CuBIC is much better compatible with the constraints of in vivo recordings than previous approaches, which is shown by a systematic analysis of its parameter dependence

Molecular characterization of fosfomycin-resistant Escherichia coli urinary tract infection isolates from Australia

Letter to the Edito

The analysis of 2 x 1 and 2 x 2 contingency tables: an historical review.

This paper describes the historical development of analytic techniques for frequency data presented as 2 x 1 or 2 x 2 contingency tables. The issues raised include: the need for a continuity correction when estimating the exceedance probability of a discrete statistic; the vulnerability of such statistics to a conservative bias when used in hypothesis testing; and the different statistical models that may underlie contingency tables. In the case of 2 x 1 contingency tables the recommended technique is the binomial test with a modified decision procedure for hypothesis testing. In the case of 2 x 2 contingency tables there is a single statistic approximating the chi-square distribution which can be used to test the hypothesis of an association between the two relevant variables and which in most practical situations is robust with respect to the occurrence of small expected cell frequencies