Long-Term Costs and Health Impact of Continued Global Fund Support for Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: By the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 104 low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020. Methods and Findings: Survival on first-line and second-line ART regimens is estimated based on annual retention rates reported by national AIDS programs. Costs per patient-year were calculated from country-reported ARV procurement prices, and expenditures on laboratory tests, health care utilization and end-of-life care from in-depth costing studies. Of the 3.5 million ART patients in 2011, 2.3 million will still need treatment in 2020. The annual cost of maintaining ART falls from $1.9 billion in 2011 to$1.7 billion in 2020, as a result of a declining number of surviving patients partially offset by increasing costs as more patients migrate to second-line therapy. The Global Fund is expected to continue being a major contributor to meeting this financial need, alongside other international funders and domestic resources. Costs would be $150 million less in 2020 with an annual 5$150-370 million less with a 5%-12% annual decline in second-line prices, but $200 million higher in 2020 with phase out of stavudine (d4T), or$200 million higher with increased migration to second-line regimens expected if all countries routinely adopted viral load monitoring. Deaths postponed by ART correspond to 830,000 life-years saved in 2011, increasing to around 2.3 million life-years every year between 2015 and 2020. Conclusions: Annual patient-level direct costs of supporting a patient cohort remain fairly stable over 2011-2020, if current antiretroviral prices and delivery costs are maintained. Second-line antiretroviral prices are a major cost driver, underscoring the importance of investing in treatment quality to improve retention on first-line regimens

Heightened Vulnerability to MDR-TB Epidemics after Controlling Drug-Susceptible TB

Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/). Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen. At a case detection rate of 75%, improving therapeutic compliance from 50% to 75% can reduce the probability of an epidemic from 45% to 15%. Paradoxically, improving the case-detection rate from 50% to 75% when compliance with DOT is constant at 75% increases the probability of MDR-TB epidemics from 3% to 45%.The ability of MDR-TB to spread depends on the prevalence of drug-susceptible TB. Immunologic protection conferred by exposure to drug-susceptible TB can be a crucial factor that prevents MDR-TB epidemics when TB treatment is poor. Any single population that successfully reduces its burden of drug-susceptible TB will have reduced herd immunity to externally or internally introduced strains of MDR-TB and can experience heightened vulnerability to an epidemic. Since countries with good TB control may be more vulnerable, their self interest dictates greater promotion of case detection and DOTS implementation in countries with poor control to control their risk of MDR-TB

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Renouncing to Universal Access to Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV in Africa: A Micro-Simulation Model

AIM: Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. METHODS: We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. RESULTS: Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3) CD4 cell counts. CONCLUSION: Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to "legitimate" short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice

Gene-Boosted Assembly of a Novel Bacterial Genome from Very Short Reads

Recent improvements in technology have made DNA sequencing dramatically faster and more efficient than ever before. The new technologies produce highly accurate sequences, but one drawback is that the most efficient technology produces the shortest read lengths. Short-read sequencing has been applied successfully to resequence the human genome and those of other species but not to whole-genome sequencing of novel organisms. Here we describe the sequencing and assembly of a novel clinical isolate of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, strain PAb1, using very short read technology. From 8,627,900 reads, each 33 nucleotides in length, we assembled the genome into one scaffold of 76 ordered contiguous sequences containing 6,290,005 nucleotides, including one contig spanning 512,638 nucleotides, plus an additional 436 unordered contigs containing 416,897 nucleotides. Our method includes a novel gene-boosting algorithm that uses amino acid sequences from predicted proteins to build a better assembly. This study demonstrates the feasibility of very short read sequencing for the sequencing of bacterial genomes, particularly those for which a related species has been sequenced previously, and expands the potential application of this new technology to most known prokaryotic species

The shear viscosity of carbon fibre suspension and its application for fibre length measurement

The viscosity of short carbon fibre suspensions in glycerol aqueous solution was measured using a bespoke vane-in-cup viscometer, where the carbon fibre has an aspect ratio from 450 to 2209. In the semi-concentrated regime, nL3 ranging from 20 to 4400, the suspensions demonstrated strong shear-thinning characteristics particularly at higher concentrations. The shear-thinning characteristic is strongly related to the crowding factor proposed by Kerekes, indicating that non-hydrodynamic interactions occur in the suspensions. The influence of fibre bending on viscosity emerges when the bending ratio is lower than 0.0028. An empirical model based on transient network formation and rupture was proposed and used to correlate the relative viscosity with fibre concentration nL3 and shear rate. Based on the model, a viscosity method is established to analyse the fibre length by measuring the viscosity of the fibre suspension using a bespoke vane-in-cup viscometer

The orphaning experience: descriptions from Ugandan youth who have lost parents to HIV/AIDS

The HIV/AIDS epidemic has continued to pose significant challenges to countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Millions of African children and youth have lost parents to HIV/AIDS leaving a generation of orphans to be cared for within extended family systems and communities. The experiences of youth who have lost parents to the HIV/AIDS epidemic provide an important ingress into this complex, evolving, multi-dimensional phenomenon. A fundamental qualitative descriptive study was conducted to develop a culturally relevant and comprehensive description of the experiences of orphanhood from the perspectives of Ugandan youth. A purposeful sample of 13 youth who had lost one or both parents to HIV/AIDS and who were affiliated with a non-governmental organization providing support to orphans were interviewed. Youth orphaned by HIV/AIDS described the experience of orphanhood beginning with parental illness, not death. Several losses were associated with the death of a parent including lost social capitol, educational opportunities and monetary assets. Unique findings revealed that youth experienced culturally specific stigma and conflict which was distinctly related to their HIV/AIDS orphan status. Exploitation within extended cultural family systems was also reported. Results from this study suggest that there is a pressing need to identify and provide culturally appropriate services for these Ugandan youth prior to and after the loss of a parent(s)

Understanding the Impact of Male Circumcision Interventions on the Spread of HIV in Southern Africa

BACKGROUND: Three randomised controlled trials have clearly shown that circumcision of adult men reduces the chance that they acquire HIV infection. However, the potential impact of circumcision programmes--either alone or in combination with other established approaches--is not known and no further field trials are planned. We have used a mathematical model, parameterised using existing trial findings, to understand and predict the impact of circumcision programmes at the population level. FINDINGS: Our results indicate that circumcision will lead to reductions in incidence for women and uncircumcised men, as well as those circumcised, but that even the most effective intervention is unlikely to completely stem the spread of the virus. Without additional interventions, HIV incidence could eventually be reduced by 25-35%, depending on the level of coverage achieved and whether onward transmission from circumcised men is also reduced. However, circumcision interventions can act synergistically with other types of prevention programmes, and if efforts to change behaviour are increased in parallel with the scale-up of circumcision services, then dramatic reductions in HIV incidence could be achieved. In the long-term, this could lead to reduced AIDS deaths and less need for anti-retroviral therapy. Any increases in risk behaviours following circumcision, i.e. 'risk compensation', could offset some of the potential benefit of the intervention, especially for women, but only very large increases would lead to more infections overall. CONCLUSIONS: Circumcision will not be the silver bullet to prevent HIV transmission, but interventions could help to substantially protect men and women from infection, especially in combination with other approaches

Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Chemoprophylaxis on HIV-1 Transmission in Resource-Limited Settings

Background. The potential impact of pre-exposure chemoprophylaxis (PrEP) an heterosexual transmission of HIV-1 infection in resource-limited settings is uncertain. Methodology/Principle Findings. A deterministic mathematical model was used to simulate the effects of antiretroval PreP on an HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa under different scenarios (optimistic neutral and pessimistic) both with and without sexual disinhibition. Sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the effect of uncertainty in input parameters on model output and included calculation of partial rank correlations and standardized rank regressions. In the scenario without sexual disinhibition after PrEP initiation, key parameters influencing infections prevented were effectiveness of PrEP (partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) = 0.94), PrEP discontinuation rate (PRCC=-0.94), level of coverage (PRCC=0.92), and time to achieve target coverage (PRCC=-082). In the scenario with sexual disinhibition, PrEP effectiveness and the extent of sexual disinhibition had the greatest impact on prevention. An optimistic scenario of PrEP with 90% effectiveness and 75% coverage of the general population predicted a 74% decline in cumulative HIV-1 infections after 10 years, and a 28.8% decline with PrEP targeted to the highest risk groups (16% of the population). Even With a 100% increase in at-risk behavior from sexual disinhibition, a beneficial effect (23.4%-62.7% decrease in infections) was seen with 90% effective PrEP across a broad range of coverage (25%-75%). Similar disinhibition led to a rise in infections with lower effectiveness of PrEP (≤50%). Conclusions/Significance. Mathematical modeling supports the potential public health benefit of PrEP. Approximately 2.7 to 3.2 million new HIV-1 infections could be averaged in southern sub-Saharan Africa over 10 years by targeting PrEP (having 90% effectiveness) to those at highest behavioral risk and by preventing sexual disinhibition. This benefit could be lost, however, by sexual disinhibition and by high PrEP discontinuation, especially with lower PrEP effectiveness (≤:50%). © 2007 Abbas et al

Dietary and other lifestyle correlates of serum folate concentrations in a healthy adult population in Crete, Greece: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Folate has emerged as a key nutrient for optimising health. Impaired folate status has been identified as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, various types of cancers, and neurocognitive disorders. The study aimed at examining the distribution and determinants of serum folate concentrations in a healthy adult population in Crete, Greece. METHODS: A cross-sectional sample of 486 healthy adults (250 men, 236 women) aged 39 ± 14 years, personnel of the Medical School and the University Hospital of Crete in Greece, was examined. Serum folate and vitamin B(12 )concentrations were measured by microbiological assay, and total homocysteine was determined fluorometrically and by high-pressure liquid chromatography. Lifestyle questionnaires were completed, and nutrient intakes and food consumption were assessed by 24-h dietary recalls. Multivariate analyses were performed using SPSS v10.1. RESULTS: The geometric mean (95% confidence interval) concentrations of serum folate were 15.6 μmol/l (14.6–16.8) in men and 19.2 μmol/l (17.9–20.7) in women (p < 0.001). Inadequate folate levels (≤7 nmol/l) were present in 6.8% of men and 2.1% of women (p < 0.001). Approximately 76% of men and 87% of women did not meet the reference dietary intake for folate (400 μg/day). Serum folate was inversely related to total homocysteine levels (p < 0.001). Increased tobacco and coffee consumption were associated with lower folate concentrations (p < 0.05 for both) but these associations disappeared after controlling for nutrient intakes. In multivariate analysis, intakes of MUFA, fibre, calcium, magnesium, folate, and vitamins A, E, C, B(1), and B(6 )were positively associated with serum folate. Consumption of potatoes, legumes, fruits, and vegetables were favourably related to the serum folate status. CONCLUSION: Serum folate concentrations were associated with various demographic, lifestyle and dietary factors in healthy Cretan adults. Large-scale epidemiological studies should be conducted within the general Greek adult population to assess the prevalence of impaired folate status and further examine associations with dietary patterns and chronic disease risk. Considering the importance of folate in health maintenance, it is important to increase the public's awareness of modifiable lifestyle patterns and diet and tobacco use in particular, which may be associated with improved folate status