Modeling human papillomavirus and cervical cancer in the United States for analyses of screening and vaccination

Background: To provide quantitative insight into current U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention, we developed a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, explicitly incorporating uncertainty about the natural history of disease. Methods: We developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. Input parameter sets were sampled randomly from uniform distributions, and simulations undertaken with each set. Through systematic reviews and formal data synthesis, we established multiple epidemiologic targets for model calibration, including age-specific prevalence of HPV by type, age-specific prevalence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), HPV type distribution within CIN and cancer, and age-specific cancer incidence. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted outcomes and calibration targets. Using 50 randomly resampled, good-fitting parameter sets, we assessed the external consistency and face validity of the model, comparing predicted screening outcomes to independent data. To illustrate the advantage of this approach in reflecting parameter uncertainty, we used the 50 sets to project the distribution of health outcomes in U.S. women under different cervical cancer prevention strategies. Results: Approximately 200 good-fitting parameter sets were identified from 1,000,000 simulated sets. Modeled screening outcomes were externally consistent with results from multiple independent data sources. Based on 50 good-fitting parameter sets, the expected reductions in lifetime risk of cancer with annual or biennial screening were 76% (range across 50 sets: 69–82%) and 69% (60–77%), respectively. The reduction from vaccination alone was 75%, although it ranged from 60% to 88%, reflecting considerable parameter uncertainty about the natural history of type-specific HPV infection. The uncertainty surrounding the model-predicted reduction in cervical cancer incidence narrowed substantially when vaccination was combined with every-5-year screening, with a mean reduction of 89% and range of 83% to 95%. Conclusion: We demonstrate an approach to parameterization, calibration and performance evaluation for a U.S. cervical cancer microsimulation model intended to provide qualitative and quantitative inputs into decisions that must be taken before long-term data on vaccination outcomes become available. This approach allows for a rigorous and comprehensive description of policy-relevant uncertainty about health outcomes under alternative cancer prevention strategies. The model provides a tool that can accommodate new information, and can be modified as needed, to iteratively assess the expected benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different policies in the U.S

Contribution of H. pylori and Smoking Trends to US Incidence of Intestinal-Type Noncardia Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model

Background: Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. Methods and Findings: We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%–58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%–21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%–100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men. Conclusions: Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of H. pylori should be priorities for gastric cancer control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summar

Abbreviated dignity therapy for adults with advanced-stage cancer and their family caregivers: Qualitative analysis of a pilot study

Objective Dignity therapy (DT) is designed to address psychological and existential challenges that terminally ill individuals face. DT guides patients in developing a written legacy project in which they record and share important memories and messages with those they will leave behind. DT has been demonstrated to ease existential concerns for adults with advanced-stage cancer; however, lack of institutional resources limits wide implementation of DT in clinical practice. This study explores qualitative outcomes of an abbreviated, less resource-intensive version of DT among participants with advanced-stage cancer and their legacy project recipients. Method Qualitative methods were used to analyze postintervention interviews with 11 participants and their legacy recipients as well as the created legacy projects. Direct content analysis was used to assess feedback from the interviews about benefits, barriers, and recommendations regarding abbreviated DT. The legacy projects were coded for expression of core values. Result Findings suggest that abbreviated DT effectively promotes (1) self-expression, (2) connection with loved ones, (3) sense of purpose, and (4) continuity of self. Participants observed that leading the development of their legacy projects promoted independent reflection, autonomy, and opportunities for family interaction when reviewing and discussing the projects. Consistent with traditional DT, participants expressed “family” as the most common core value in their legacy projects. Expression of “autonomy” was also a notable finding. Significance of results Abbreviated DT reduces resource barriers to conducting traditional DT while promoting similar benefits for participants and recipients, making it a promising adaptation warranting further research. The importance that patients place on family and autonomy should be honored as much as possible by those caring for adults with advanced-stage cancer

In vivo characterization of connective tissue remodeling using infrared photoacoustic spectra

Premature cervical remodeling is a critical precursor of spontaneous preterm birth, and the remodeling process is characterized by an increase in tissue hydration. Nevertheless, current clinical measurements of cervical remodeling are subjective and detect only late events, such as cervical effacement and dilation. Here, we present a photoacoustic endoscope that can quantify tissue hydration by measuring near-infrared cervical spectra. We quantify the water contents of tissue-mimicking hydrogel phantoms as an analog of cervical connective tissue. Applying this method to pregnant women in vivo, we observed an increase in the water content of the cervix throughout pregnancy. The application of this technique in maternal healthcare may advance our understanding of cervical remodeling and provide a sensitive method for predicting preterm birth

Digital Mammography and Breast Tomosynthesis Performance in Women with a Personal History of Breast Cancer, 2007-2016

Background Since 2007, digital mammography and digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) replaced screen-film mammography. Whether these technologic advances have improved diagnostic performance has, to the knowledge of the authors, not yet been established. Purpose To evaluate the performance and outcomes of surveillance mammography (digital mammography and DBT) performed from 2007 to 2016 in women with a personal history of breast cancer and compare with data from 1996 to 2007 and the performance of digital mammography screening benchmarks. Materials and Methods In this observational cohort study, five Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium registries provided prospectively collected mammography data linked with tumor registry and pathologic outcomes. This study identified asymptomatic women with American Joint Committee on Cancer anatomic stages 0-III primary breast cancer who underwent surveillance mammography from 2007 to 2016. The primary outcome was a second breast cancer diagnosis within 1 year of mammography. Performance measures included the recall rate, cancer detection rate, interval cancer rate, positive predictive value of biopsy recommendation, sensitivity, and specificity. Results Among 32 331 women who underwent 117 971 surveillance mammographic examinations (112 269 digital mammographic examinations and 5702 DBT examinations), the mean age at initial diagnosis was 59 years ± 12 (standard deviation). Of 1418 second breast cancers diagnosed, 998 were surveillance-detected cancers and 420 were interval cancers. The recall rate was 8.8% (10 365 of 117 971; 95% CI: 8.6%, 9.0%), the cancer detection rate was 8.5 per 1000 examinations (998 of 117 971; 95% CI: 8.0, 9.0), the interval cancer rate was 3.6 per 1000 examinations (420 of 117 971; 95% CI: 3.2, 3.9), the positive predictive value of biopsy recommendation was 31.0% (998 of 3220; 95% CI: 29.4%, 32.7%), the sensitivity was 70.4% (998 of 1418; 95% CI: 67.9%, 72.7%), and the specificity was 98.1% (114 331 of 116 553; 95% CI: 98.0%, 98.2%). Compared with previously published studies, interval cancer rate was comparable with rates from 1996 to 2007 in women with a personal history of breast cancer and was higher than the published digital mammography screening benchmarks. Conclusion In transitioning from screen-film to digital mammography and digital breast tomosynthesis, surveillance mammography performance demonstrated minimal improvement over time and remained inferior to the performance of screening mammography benchmarks. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Moy and Gao in this issu

Stromelysin-3 over-expression enhances tumourigenesis in MCF-7 and MDA-MB-231 breast cancer cell lines: involvement of the IGF-1 signalling pathway

BACKGROUND: Stromelysin-3 (ST-3) is over-expressed in the majority of human carcinomas including breast carcinoma. Due to its known effect in promoting tumour formation, but its impeding effect on metastasis, a dual role of ST-3 in tumour progression, depending on the cellular grade of dedifferentiation, was hypothesized. METHODS: The present study was designed to investigate the influence of ST-3 in vivo and in vitro on the oestrogen-dependent, non-invasive MCF-7 breast carcinoma cell line as well as on the oestrogen-independent, invasive MDA-MB-231 breast carcinoma cell line. Therefore an orthotopic human xenograft tumour model in nude mice, as well as a 3D matrigel cell culture system, were employed. RESULTS: Using both in vitro and in vivo techniques, we have demonstrated that over-expression of ST-3 in MCF-7 and MDA-MB-231 cells leads to both increased cell numbers and tumour volumes. This observation was dependent upon the presence of growth factors. In particular, the enhanced proliferative capacity was in MCF-7/ST-3 completely and in MDA-MB-231/ST-3 cells partially dependent on the IGF-1 signalling pathway. Microarray analysis of ST-3 over-expressing cells revealed that in addition to cell proliferation, further biological processes seemed to be affected, such as cell motility and stress response. The MAPK-pathway as well as the Wnt and PI3-kinase pathways, appear to also play a potential role. Furthermore, we have demonstrated that breast cancer cell lines of different differentiation status, as well as the non-tumourigenic cell line MCF-10A, have a comparable capability to induce endogenous ST-3 expression in fibroblasts. CONCLUSION: These data reveal that ST-3 is capable of enhancing tumourigenesis in highly differentiated "early stage" breast cancer cell lines as well as in further progressed breast cancer cell lines that have already undergone epithelial-mesenchymal transition. We propose that ST-3 induction in tumour fibroblasts leads to the stimulation of the IGF-1R pathway in carcinoma cells, thus enhancing their proliferative capacity. In addition, further different cellular processes seem to be activated by ST-3, possibly accounting for the dual role of ST-3 in tumour progression and metastasis

Amplified B Lymphocyte CD40 Signaling Drives Regulatory B10 Cell Expansion in Mice

Aberrant CD40 ligand (CD154) expression occurs on both T cells and B cells in human lupus patients, which is suggested to enhance B cell CD40 signaling and play a role in disease pathogenesis. Transgenic mice expressing CD154 by their B cells (CD154(TG)) have an expanded spleen B cell pool and produce autoantibodies (autoAbs). CD22 deficient (CD22(-/-)) mice also produce autoAbs, and importantly, their B cells are hyper-proliferative following CD40 stimulation ex vivo. Combining these 2 genetic alterations in CD154(TG)CD22(-/-) mice was thereby predicted to intensify CD40 signaling and autoimmune disease due to autoreactive B cell expansion and/or activation.CD154(TG)CD22(-/-) mice were assessed for their humoral immune responses and for changes in their endogenous lymphocyte subsets. Remarkably, CD154(TG)CD22(-/-) mice were not autoimmune, but instead generated minimal IgG responses against both self and foreign antigens. This paucity in IgG isotype switching occurred despite an expanded spleen B cell pool, higher serum IgM levels, and augmented ex vivo B cell proliferation. Impaired IgG responses in CD154(TG)CD22(-/-) mice were explained by a 16-fold expansion of functional, mature IL-10-competent regulatory spleen B cells (B10 cells: 26.7×10(6)±6 in CD154(TG)CD22(-/-) mice; 1.7×10(6)±0.4 in wild type mice, p<0.01), and an 11-fold expansion of B10 cells combined with their ex vivo-matured progenitors (B10+B10pro cells: 66×10(6)±3 in CD154(TG)CD22(-/-) mice; 6.1×10(6)±2 in wild type mice, p<0.01) that represented 39% of all spleen B cells.These results demonstrate for the first time that the IL-10-producing B10 B cell subset has the capacity to suppress IgG humoral immune responses against both foreign and self antigens. Thereby, therapeutic agents that drive regulatory B10 cell expansion in vivo may inhibit pathogenic IgG autoAb production in humans