A Regression on Climate Policy - The European Commission's Proposal to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Transport

As part of its efforts to reach the targets of the Kyoto Protocol, the European Commission is currently considering a new directive to reduce the per-kilometer CO2 emissions of newly registered automobiles. This paper critically assesses this proposal with respect to its economic and technological underpinnings. We argue that the proposal's reliance on targets based on per-kilometer emissions not only conceals the true costs of compliance and thereby stifles informed public discourse, but is also less cost-effective than alternative measures such as emissions trading. We further examine the proposal's underlying assumptions, finding that these misrepresent the current state of automotive technology and therefore may overestimate the feasibility of achieving the suggested emissions targets. Alternative targets are consequently proposed that are argued to more accurately reflect the industry's technological evolution to date

Climate-induced changes in grapevine yield and must sugar content in Franconia (Germany) between 1805 and 2010

When attempting to estimate the impacts of future climate change it is important to reflect on information gathered during the past. Understanding historical trends may also aid in the assessment of likely future agricultural and horticultural changes. The timing of agricultural activities, such as grape harvest dates, is known to be influenced by climate and weather. However, fewer studies have been carried out on grapevine yield and quality. In this paper an analysis is undertaken of long-term data from the period 1805-2010 on grapevine yield (hl/ha) and must sugar content (°Oe) and their relation to temperature. Monthly mean temperatures were obtained for the same time period. Multiple regression was used to relate the viticulture variables to temperature, and long-term trends were calculated. Overall, the observed trends over time are compatible with results from other long term studies. The findings confirm a relationship between yield, must sugar content and temperature data; increased temperatures were associated with higher yields and higher must sugar content. However, the potential increase in yield is currently limited by legislation, while must sugar content is likely to further increase with rising temperatures

THE IMPACT OF FUEL TAXES ON PUBLIC TRANSPORT--AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT FOR GERMANY

This study is based on an econometric model for public transport in Germany which explains and quantifies the complex relationship between prices, passenger transport, modal split, production costs, and deficits. After a short description of the model and its key concept and an evaluation of the impact of a fuel tax increase on modal split and tax revenues, a detailed review of the impacts of a tax increase on transit ridership, costs, and revenues of public transport is provided. A brief description of the cost structure precedes an explanation and quantification of the most important implications of fuel price increases. The paper concludes with a summary of the results

The impact of fuel taxes on public transport -- an empirical assessment for Germany

An increase in fuel taxes is often connected with the hypothesis of a triple dividend: Apart from the modal-shift-effect, which relieves the environment as well as the infrastructure, and the fiscal effect, which should increase the public revenue, the movement of passengers to public transport systems should decrease its deficit. However, this calculation fails because higher fuel prices increase peak-hour transit use but not leisure or off-peak transit. But the typical attribute of peak traffic is above-average marginal costs and below average revenues. Therefore, higher fuel taxes will increase public transport's deficit rather than decrease it. The fiscal lucrativeness of higher fuel taxes will be significantly lower than is often expected.

Grundlagen eines mittelfristigen umweltpolitischen Aktionsplans

The most pressing issues of environment protection today are global climatic changes, pollution of groundwaters and surface waters, increased waste accumulation, impairment of soil functions, and, from another aspect, environmentally relevant trends of development in some polluter groups (in particular farming, forestry, the traffic sector, and the area of hazardous substances and chemical products). Working from this point, the study inquires into the immediate and probable medium-term ecopolitical tasks in the areas named and points out ways of avoiding undesirable developments. Due consideration is given to the growing pressure to find efficient solutions of environment protection. One can assume a priori that this will require with less compromise than hitherto the creation of economic instruments and of more efficient institutional arrangements. The study attempts to solve these problems with an interdisciplinary approach on as broad a basis as possible. It was initiated as a research project commissioned by the Federal Minister of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety. (orig./HSCH)Vordringliche Problemfelder des Umweltschutzes sind aus heutiger Sicht die globalen Klimaveraenderungen, die Belastung des Grund- und Oberflaechenwassers, die Zunahme des Abfallaufkommens sowie Beeintraechtigungen der Bodenfunktionen, aber auch umweltrelevante Entwicklungstendenzen in einigen Verursachergruppen (insbesondere in der Land- und Forstwirtschaft, im Verkehrssektor und im Bereich Gefahrstoffe und Chemieprodukte). Vor diesem Hintergrund prueft die Studie den aktuell gegebenen bzw. sich mittelfristig abzeichnenden umweltpolitischen Handlungsbedarf in den genannten Bereichen und zeigt konkrete Ansatzpunkte fuer die Vermeidung von Fehlentwicklungen auf. Dabei wird dem wachsenden Zwang zu effizienten Loesungen im Umweltschutz Rechnung getragen; dies wird - so ist a priori zu vermuten - staerker als bisher flexible, oekonomische Anreize schaffende Instrumente und sachgerechtere institutionelle Arrangements erfordern. Die Studie versucht, diese Aufgaben durch einen moeglichst breiten, interdisziplinaeren Ansatz zu loesen. Sie ist als Forschungsvorhaben des Bundesministers fuer Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit entstanden. (orig./HSCH)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 2401(10) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman