The impact of fuel taxes on public transport -- an empirical assessment for Germany

Abstract

An increase in fuel taxes is often connected with the hypothesis of a triple dividend: Apart from the modal-shift-effect, which relieves the environment as well as the infrastructure, and the fiscal effect, which should increase the public revenue, the movement of passengers to public transport systems should decrease its deficit. However, this calculation fails because higher fuel prices increase peak-hour transit use but not leisure or off-peak transit. But the typical attribute of peak traffic is above-average marginal costs and below average revenues. Therefore, higher fuel taxes will increase public transport's deficit rather than decrease it. The fiscal lucrativeness of higher fuel taxes will be significantly lower than is often expected.