The backbone of the climate network

We propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system, relying on the nonlinear mutual information of time series analysis and betweenness centrality of complex network theory. We show, that this approach reveals a rich internal structure in complex climate networks constructed from reanalysis and model surface air temperature data. Our novel method uncovers peculiar wave-like structures of high energy flow, that we relate to global surface ocean currents. This points to a major role of the oceanic surface circulation in coupling and stabilizing the global temperature field in the long term mean (140 years for the model run and 60 years for reanalysis data). We find that these results cannot be obtained using classical linear methods of multivariate data analysis, and have ensured their robustness by intensive significance testing.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

High‐Frequency Sensor Data Reveal Across‐Scale Nitrate Dynamics in Response to Hydrology and Biogeochemistry in Intensively Managed Agricultural Basins

An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2018 American Geophysical Union.Excess nitrate in rivers draining intensively managed agricultural watersheds has caused coastal hypoxic zones, harmful algal blooms, and degraded drinking water. Hydrology and biogeochemical transformations influence nitrate concentrations by changing nitrate supply, removal, and transport. For the Midwest Unites States, where much of the land is used for corn and soybean production, a better understanding of the response of nitrate to hydrology and biogeochemistry is vital in the face of high nitrate concentrations coupled with projected increases of precipitation frequency and magnitude. In this study, we capitalized on the availability of spatially and temporally extensive sensor data in the region to evaluate how nitrate concentration (NO3−) interacts with discharge (Q) and water temperature (T) within eight watersheds in Iowa, United States, by evaluating land use characteristics and multiscale temporal behavior from 5‐year, high‐frequency, time series records. We show that power spectral density of Q, NO3−, and T, all exhibit power law behavior with slopes greater than 2, implying temporal self‐similarity for a range of scales. NO3− was strongly cross correlated with Q for all sites and correlation increased significantly with drainage area across sites. Peak NO3− increased significantly with crop coverage across watersheds. Temporal offsets in peak NO3− and peak Q, seen at all study sites, reduced the impact of extreme events. This study illustrates a relatively new approach to evaluating environmental sensor data and revealed characteristics of watersheds in which extreme discharge events have the greatest consequences

When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge?

A multi-model ensemble of regional climate projections for Europe is employed to investigate how the time of emergence (TOE) for seasonal sums and maxima of daily precipitation depends on spatial scale. The TOE is redefined for emergence from internal variability only; the spread of the TOE due to imperfect climate model formulation is used as a measure of uncertainty in the TOE itself. Thereby, the TOE becomes a fundamentally limiting timescale and translates into a minimum spatial scale on which robust conclusions can be drawn about precipitation trends. Thus, minimum temporal and spatial scales for adaptation planning are also given. In northern Europe, positive winter trends in mean and heavy precipitation, and in southwestern and southeastern Europe, summer trends in mean precipitation already emerge within the next few decades. However, across wide areas, especially for heavy summer precipitation, the local trend emerges only late in the 21st century or later. For precipitation averaged to larger scales, the trend, in general, emerges earlier

Maximal height statistics for 1/f^alpha signals

Numerical and analytical results are presented for the maximal relative height distribution of stationary periodic Gaussian signals (one dimensional interfaces) displaying a 1/f^alpha power spectrum. For 0<alpha<1 (regime of decaying correlations), we observe that the mathematically established limiting distribution (Fisher-Tippett-Gumbel distribution) is approached extremely slowly as the sample size increases. The convergence is rapid for alpha>1 (regime of strong correlations) and a highly accurate picture gallery of distribution functions can be constructed numerically. Analytical results can be obtained in the limit alpha -> infinity and, for large alpha, by perturbation expansion. Furthermore, using path integral techniques we derive a trace formula for the distribution function, valid for alpha=2n even integer. From the latter we extract the small argument asymptote of the distribution function whose analytic continuation to arbitrary alpha > 1 is found to be in agreement with simulations. Comparison of the extreme and roughness statistics of the interfaces reveals similarities in both the small and large argument asymptotes of the distribution functions.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figures, RevTex

Human viruses:discovery and emergence

There are 219 virus species that are known to be able to infect humans. The first of these to be discovered was yellow fever virus in 1901, and three to four new species are still being found every year. Extrapolation of the discovery curve suggests that there is still a substantial pool of undiscovered human virus species, although an apparent slow-down in the rate of discovery of species from different families may indicate bounds to the potential range of diversity. More than two-thirds of human viruses can also infect non-human hosts, mainly mammals, and sometimes birds. Many specialist human viruses also have mammalian or avian origins. Indeed, a substantial proportion of mammalian viruses may be capable of crossing the species barrier into humans, although only around half of these are capable of being transmitted by humans and around half again of transmitting well enough to cause major outbreaks. A few possible predictors of species jumps can be identified, including the use of phylogenetically conserved cell receptors. It seems almost inevitable that new human viruses will continue to emerge, mainly from other mammals and birds, for the foreseeable future. For this reason, an effective global surveillance system for novel viruses is needed

Using urban climate modelling and improved land use classifications to support climate change adaptation in urban environments: A case study for the city of Klagenfurt, Austria

This study outlines the results of current and future climate scenarios, and potentially realizable climate adaptation measures, for the city of Klagenfurt, Austria. For this purpose, we used the microscale urban climate model (MUKLIMO_3), in conjunction with the cuboid method, to calculate climate indices such as the average number of summer and hot days per year. For the baseline simulation, we used meteorological measurements from 1981 to 2010 from the weather station located at Klagenfurt Airport. Individual building structures and canopy cover from several land monitoring services were used to derive accurate properties for land use classes in the study domain. To characterize the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies, we compared changes in the climate indices for several (future) climate adaptation scenarios to the reference simulation. Specifically, we considered two major adaptation pathways: (i) an increase in the albedo values of sealed areas (i.e., roofs, walls and streets) and (ii) an increase in green surfaces (i.e., lawns on streets and at roof level) and high vegetated areas (i.e., trees). The results indicate that some climate adaptation measures show higher potential in mitigating hot days than others, varying between reductions of 2.3 to 11.0%. An overall combination of adaptation measures leads to a maximum reduction of up to 44.0%, indicating a clear potential for reduction/mitigation of urban heat loads. Furthermore, the results for the future scenarios reveal the possibility to remain at the current level of urban heat load during the daytime over the next three decades for the overall combination of measures

Interferon β-1a in relapsing multiple sclerosis: four-year extension of the European IFNβ-1a Dose-C omparison Study

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease requiring long-term monitoring of treatment. Objective: To assess the four-year clinical efficacy of intramuscular (IM) IFNb-1a in patients with relapsing MS from the European IFNb-1a Dose-C omparison Study. Methods: Patients who completed 36 months of treatment (Part 1) of the European IFNb-1a Dose-C omparison Study were given the option to continue double-blind treatment with IFNb-1a 30 mcg or 60 mcg IM once weekly (Part 2). Analyses of 48-month data were performed on sustained disability progression, relapses, and neutralizing antibody (NA b) formation. Results: O f 608/802 subjects who completed 36 months of treatment, 493 subjects continued treatment and 446 completed 48 months of treatment and follow-up. IFNb-1a 30 mcg and 60 mcg IM once weekly were equally effective for up to 48 months. There were no significant differences between doses over 48 months on any of the clinical endpoints, including rate of disability progression, cumulative percentage of patients who progressed (48 and 43, respectively), and annual relapse rates; relapses tended to decrease over 48 months. The incidence of patients who were positive for NAbs at any time during the study was low in both treatment groups. Conclusion: C ompared with 60-mcg IM IFNb-1a once weekly, a dose of 30 mcg IM IFNb-1a once weekly maintains the same clinical efficacy over four years

Societal Adaptation to Decadal Climate Variability in the United States

The search for evidence of decadal climatic variability (DCV) has a very long history. In the past decade, a research community has coalesced around a series of roughly biennial workshops that have emphasized description of past DCV events; their causes and their teleconnections responsible for droughts, floods, and warm and cold spells around the world; and recently, the predictability of DCV events. Researchers studying climate change put great emphasis on prospective impacts, but the DCV community has yet to do so. To begin rectifying this deficiency, a short but ambitious workshop was convened in Waikoloa, near Kona, Hawaii, from 26-28 April 2007. This workshop, sponsored by the Center for Research on the Changing Earth System (CRCES), NOAA, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, brought together climatologists and sectoral specialists representing agriculture, water resources, economics, the insurance industry, and developing country interests

Neutralization Serotyping of BK Polyomavirus Infection in Kidney Transplant Recipients

Abstract BK polyomavirus (BKV or BKPyV) associated nephropathy affects up to 10% of kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). BKV isolates are categorized into four genotypes. It is currently unclear whether the four genotypes are also serotypes. To address this issue, we developed high-throughput serological assays based on antibody-mediated neutralization of BKV genotype I and IV reporter vectors (pseudoviruses). Neutralization-based testing of sera from mice immunized with BKV-I or BKV-IV virus-like particles (VLPs) or sera from naturally infected human subjects revealed that BKV-I specific serum antibodies are poorly neutralizing against BKV-IV and vice versa. The fact that BKV-I and BKV-IV are distinct serotypes was less evident in traditional VLP-based ELISAs. BKV-I and BKV-IV neutralization assays were used to examine BKV type-specific neutralizing antibody responses in KTRs at various time points after transplantation. At study entry, sera from 5% and 49% of KTRs showed no detectable neutralizing activity for BKV-I or BKV-IV neutralization, respectively. By one year after transplantation, all KTRs were neutralization seropositive for BKV-I, and 43% of the initially BKV-IV seronegative subjects showed evidence of acute seroconversion for BKV-IV neutralization. The results suggest a model in which BKV-IV-specific seroconversion reflects a de novo BKV-IV infection in KTRs who initially lack protective antibody responses capable of neutralizing genotype IV BKVs. If this model is correct, it suggests that pre-vaccinating prospective KTRs with a multivalent VLP-based vaccine against all BKV serotypes, or administration of BKV-neutralizing antibodies, might offer protection against graft loss or dysfunction due to BKV associated nephropathy