Deterministic and Stochastic Dynamics of COVID-19: The Case Study of Italy and Spain

In December 2019, a severe respiratory syndrome (COVID-19) caused by a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in China and spread rapidly around the globe. COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March 2020. With eventually substantial global underestimation, more than 225 million cases were confirmed by the end of August 2021, counting more than 4.5 million deaths. COVID-19 symptoms range from mild (or no symptoms) to severe illness, with disease severity and death occurring according to a hierarchy of risks, with age and preexisting health conditions enhancing the risks of disease severity manifestation. In this paper, a mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission is proposed and analyzed. The model stratifies the studied population into two groups, older and younger. Applied to the COVID-19 outbreaks in Spain and in Italy, we find the disease-free equilibrium and the basic reproduction number for each case study. A sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters which influence the basic reproduction number, and hence regulate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, is also performed. Finally, the model is extended to its stochastic counterpart to encapsulate the variation or uncertainty found in the transmissibility of the disease. We observe the variability of the infectious population finding its distribution at a given time, demonstrating that for small populations, stochasticity will play an important role.Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 79249

Quantum Annealing Applied to De-Conflicting Optimal Trajectories for Air Traffic Management

We present the mapping of a class of simplified air traffic management (ATM) problems (strategic conflict resolution) to quadratic unconstrained boolean optimization (QUBO) problems. The mapping is performed through an original representation of the conflict-resolution problem in terms of a conflict graph, where nodes of the graph represent flights and edges represent a potential conflict between flights. The representation allows a natural decomposition of a real world instance related to wind-optimal trajectories over the Atlantic ocean into smaller subproblems, that can be discretized and are amenable to be programmed in quantum annealers. In the study, we tested the new programming techniques and we benchmark the hardness of the instances using both classical solvers and the D-Wave 2X and D-Wave 2000Q quantum chip. The preliminary results show that for reasonable modeling choices the most challenging subproblems which are programmable in the current devices are solved to optimality with 99% of probability within a second of annealing time.Comment: Paper accepted for publication on: IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation System

Manipulation of subsurface carbon nanoparticles in Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ using a scanning tunneling microscope

We present evidence that subsurface carbon nanoparticles in Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ can be manipulated with nanometer precision using a scanning tunneling microscope. High-resolution images indicate that most of the carbon particles remain subsurface after transport observable as a local increase in height as the particle pushes up on the surface. Tunneling spectra in the vicinity of these protrusions exhibit semiconducting characteristics with a band gap of approximately 1.8 eV, indicating that the incorporation of carbon locally alters the electronic properties near the surface

Seasonally Forced SIR Systems Applied to Respiratory Infectious Diseases, Bifurcations, and Chaos

We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models were initially suggested for respiartory diseases like influenza, showing complex dynamics in reasonable parameter regions when comparing to historic empirical influenza like illness data, e.g., from Ille de France. The seasonal forcing typical for respiratory diseases gives rise to the different rich dynamical scenarios with even small parameter changes. Especially the seasonality of the infection leads for small values already to period doubling bifurcations into chaos, besides additional coexisting attractors. Such models could in the future also play a role in understanding the presently experienced COVID-19 pandemic, under emerging new variants and with only limited vaccine efficacies against newly upcoming variants. From first period doubling bifurcations, we can eventually infer at which close by parameter regions complex dynamics including deterministic chaos can arise.Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 79249

Разработка метода темплатного синтеза наноструктур в алюмооксидных матрицах

Объектом исследования является разработка метода темплатного синтеза наноструктур в алюмооксидных матрицах. Цель работы являются синтез матрицы АОА методом двухступенчатого анодирования и разработка методики темплатного синтеза металлических наноструктур в матрице АОА. Область применения: мембранные технологии, оптика, микроэлектронные устройства, матрицы для темплатного синтеза. В будущем планируется проведение исследования нанокомпозитов на основе кобальта, полученных в матрице АОА, изучение режима формирования наноструктуры и применения таких материалов.The object of research is the development of a template synthesis method for nanostructures in alumina matrices. The aim of the work is the synthesis of the AOA matrix by the method of two-stage anodization and the development of a template synthesis technique for metal nanostructures in the AOA matrix. Scope: membrane technologies, optics, microelectronic devices, matrices for template synthesis. In the future, it is planned to conduct research on cobalt-based nanocomposites obtained in the AOA matrix, to study the regime of nanostructure formation and the use of such materials.In the future, it is planned to conduct research on cobalt-base

Smoking and health-related quality of life in English general population: Implications for economic evaluations

Copyright @ 2012 Vogl et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Little is known as to how health-related quality of life (HRQoL) when measured by generic instruments such as EQ-5D differ across smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers in the general population; whether the overall pattern of this difference remain consistent in each domain of HRQoL; and what implications this variation, if any, would have for economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions. Methods: Using the 2006 round of Health Survey for England data (n = 13,241), this paper aims to examine the impact of smoking status on health-related quality of life in English population. Depending upon the nature of the EQ-5D data (i.e. tariff or domains), linear or logistic regression models were fitted to control for biology, clinical conditions, socio-economic background and lifestyle factors that an individual may have regardless of their smoking status. Age- and gender-specific predicted values according to smoking status are offered as the potential 'utility' values to be used in future economic evaluation models. Results: The observed difference of 0.1100 in EQ-5D scores between never-smokers (0.8839) and heavy-smokers (0.7739) reduced to 0.0516 after adjusting for biological, clinical, lifestyle and socioeconomic conditions. Heavy-smokers, when compared with never-smokers, were significantly more likely to report some/severe problems in all five domains - mobility (67%), self-care (70%), usual activity (42%), pain/discomfort (46%) and anxiety/depression (86%) -. 'Utility' values by age and gender for each category of smoking are provided to be used in the future economic evaluations. Conclusion: Smoking is significantly and negatively associated with health-related quality of life in English general population and the magnitude of this association is determined by the number of cigarettes smoked. The varying degree of this association, captured through instruments such as EQ-5D, may need to be fed into the design of future economic evaluations where the intervention being evaluated affects (e.g. tobacco control) or is affected (e.g. treatment for lung cancer) by individual's (or patients') smoking status

Fluorescent Molecularly Imprinted Polymer Layers against Sialic Acid on Silica-Coated Polystyrene Cores-Assessment of the Binding Behavior to Cancer Cells

Simple Summary Cancer cells often have aberrant sialic acid expression. We used molecularly imprinted polymers in this study as novel tools for analyzing sialic acid expression as a biomarker on cancer cells. The sialic acid imprinted polymer shell was synthesized on a polystyrene core, providing low-density support for improving the suspension stability and scattering properties of the molecularly imprinted particles compared to previous core-shell formats. Our results show that these particles have an increased ability to bind to cancer cells. The binding of these particles may be inhibited by two different pentavalent sialic acid conjugates, pointing to the specificity of the sialic acid imprinted particles. Sialic acid (SA) is a monosaccharide usually linked to the terminus of glycan chains on the cell surface. It plays a crucial role in many biological processes, and hypersialylation is a common feature in cancer. Lectins are widely used to analyze the cell surface expression of SA. However, these protein molecules are usually expensive and easily denatured, which calls for the development of alternative glycan-specific receptors and cell imaging technologies. In this study, SA-imprinted fluorescent core-shell molecularly imprinted polymer particles (SA-MIPs) were employed to recognize SA on the cell surface of cancer cell lines. The SA-MIPs improved suspensibility and scattering properties compared with previously used core-shell SA-MIPs. Although SA-imprinting was performed using SA without preference for the alpha 2,3- and alpha 2,6-SA forms, we screened the cancer cell lines analyzed using the lectins Maackia Amurensis Lectin I (MAL I, alpha 2,3-SA) and Sambucus Nigra Lectin (SNA, alpha 2,6-SA). Our results show that the selected cancer cell lines in this study presented a varied binding behavior with the SA-MIPs. The binding pattern of the lectins was also demonstrated. Moreover, two different pentavalent SA conjugates were used to inhibit the binding of the SA-MIPs to breast, skin, and lung cancer cell lines, demonstrating the specificity of the SA-MIPs in both flow cytometry and confocal fluorescence microscopy. We concluded that the synthesized SA-MIPs might be a powerful future tool in the diagnostic analysis of various cancer cells.</p

Severe influenza cases in paediatric intensive care units in Germany during the pre-pandemic seasons 2005 to 2008

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Data on complications in children with seasonal influenza virus infection are limited. We initiated a nation-wide three-year surveillance of children who were admitted to a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) with severe seasonal influenza.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>From October 2005 to July 2008, active surveillance was performed using an established reporting system for rare diseases (ESPED) including all paediatric hospitals in Germany. Cases to be reported were hospitalized children < 17 years of age with laboratory-confirmed influenza treated in a PICU or dying in hospital.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty severe influenza-associated cases were reported from 14 PICUs during three pre-pandemic influenza seasons (2005-2008). The median age of the patients (12 males/8 females) was 7.5 years (range 0.1-15 years). None had received vaccination against influenza. In 14 (70%) patients, the infection had been caused by influenza A and in five (25%) by influenza B; in one child (5%) the influenza type was not reported. Patients spent a median of 19 (IQR 12-38) days in the hospital and a median of 11 days (IQR 6-18 days) in the PICU; 10 (50%) needed mechanical ventilation. Most frequent diagnoses were influenza-associated pneumonia (60%), bronchitis/bronchiolitis (30%), encephalitis/encephalopathy (25%), secondary bacterial pneumonia (25%), and ARDS (25%). Eleven (55%) children had chronic underlying medical conditions, including 8 (40%) with chronic pulmonary diseases. Two influenza A- associated deaths were reported: <it>i) </it>an 8-year old boy with pneumococcal encephalopathy following influenza infection died from cerebral edema, <it>ii) </it>a 14-year-old boy with asthma bronchiale, cardiac malformation and Addison's disease died from cardiac and respiratory failure. For nine (45%) patients, possibly permanent sequelae were reported (3 neurological, 3 pulmonary, 3 other sequelae).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Influenza-associated pneumonia and secondary bacterial infections are relevant complications of seasonal influenza in Germany. The incidence of severe influenza cases in PICUs was relatively low. This may be either due to the weak to moderate seasonal influenza activity during the years 2005 to 2008 or due to under-diagnosis of influenza by physicians. Fifty% of the observed severe cases might have been prevented by following the recommendations for vaccination of risk groups in Germany.</p